A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce a means of automating machine learning (ML) for big data tasks, by performing scalable stochastic Bayesian optimisation of ML algorithm parameters and hyper-parameters. More often than not, the critical tuning of ML algorithm parameters has relied on domain expertise from experts, along with laborious hand…
We introduce a novel paradigm for learning non-parametric drift and diffusion functions for stochastic differential equation (SDE). The proposed model learns to simulate path distributions that match observations with non-uniform time increments and arbitrary sparseness, which is in contrast with gradient matching that…
The Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm (BOA) is an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) that uses a Bayesian network as probabilistic graphical model (PGM). Determining the optimal Bayesian network structure given a solution sample is an NP-hard problem. This step should be completed at each iteration of BOA, result…
Various ℓ1-penalised estimation methods such as graphical lasso and CLIME are widely used for sparse precision matrix estimation. Many of these methods have been shown to be consistent under various quantitative assumptions about the underlying true covariance matrix. Intuitively, these conditions are related to …
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the forecast accuracy and a cluster structure of the predictive tasks around these. The …
Sparse pseudo-point approximations for Gaussian process (GP) models provide a suite of methods that support deployment of GPs in the large data regime and enable analytic intractabilities to be sidestepped. However, the field lacks a principled method to handle streaming data in which both the posterior distribution ov…
We address the problem of partial index tracking, replicating a benchmark index using a small number of assets. Accurate tracking with a sparse portfolio is extensively studied as a classic finance problem. However in practice, a tracking portfolio must also be diverse in order to minimise risk -- a requirement which h…
We propose a method for recovering the structure of a sparse undirected graphical model when very few samples are available. The method decides about the presence or absence of bonds between pairs of variable by considering one pair at a time and using a closed form formula, analytically derived by calculating the post…
Unified Bayesian Optimisation for mixed variables improves performance.
problem Efficient optimisation of problems with both categorical and continuous variables.
method Derive value proposals from the Expected Improvement criterion to optimise both categorical and continuous variables under a single acquisition metric.
result Unified approach significantly outperforms existing methods across mixed-variable tasks.
Real world experiments are expensive, and thus it is important to reach a target in minimum number of experiments. Experimental processes often involve control variables that changes over time. Such problems can be formulated as a functional optimisation problem. We develop a novel Bayesian optimisation framework for s…
Information-theoretic Bayesian optimisation techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in tackling important global optimisation problems. However, current information-theoretic approaches require many approximations in implementation, introduce often-prohibitive computational overhead and limit the choi…
Deep Optimisation (DO) combines evolutionary search with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in a novel way - not for optimising a learning algorithm, but for finding a solution to an optimisation problem. Deep learning has been successfully applied to classification, regression, decision and generative tasks and in this paper…
We present an efficient block-diagonal ap- proximation to the Gauss-Newton matrix for feedforward neural networks. Our result- ing algorithm is competitive against state- of-the-art first order optimisation methods, with sometimes significant improvement in optimisation performance. Unlike first-order methods, for whic…
A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal portfolio state is conducted by a series of single-step optimisations under the …