A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes insurance profits under regulatory constraints.
This article contains the first published example of a real economic balance sheet where the Solvency II ratio substantially depends on the seed selected for the random number generator (RNG) used. The theoretical background and the main quality criteria for RNGs are explained in detail. To serve as a gauge for RNGs, a…
Solvency II Directive 2009/138/EC requires an insurance and reinsurance undertakings assessment of a Solvency Capital Requirement by means of the so-called "Standard Formula" or by means of partial or full internal models. Focusing on the first approach, the bottom-up aggregation formula proposed by the regulator permi…
In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not approp…
This article presents a stochastic framework to quantify the biometric risk of an insurance portfolio in solvency regimes such as Solvency II or the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). The main difficulty in this context constitutes in the proper representation of long term risks in the profit-loss distribution over a one year …
The implementation of the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment is a critical issue raised by Pillar II of Solvency II framework. In particular the Overall Solvency Needs calculation left the Insurance companies to define an optimal entity-specific solvency constraint on a multi-year time horizon. In a life insurance societ…
The article proposes a method to make valid insurance claim predictions without relying on specific models.
The underlying stochastic nature of the requirements for the Solvency II regulations has introduced significant challenges if the required calculations are to be performed correctly, without resorting to excessive approximations, within practical timescales. It is generally acknowledged by practising actuaries within U…
Paper proposes a copula method to generate unfavorable VaR scenarios.
A new method for calculating ES from VaR under Solvency II.
In the paper we develop mathematical tools of quantile hedging in incomplete market. Those could be used for two significant applications: o calculating the \textbf{optimal capital requirement imposed by Solvency II} (Directive 2009/138/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council) when the market and non-market ri…
Framework for realistic insurance liability valuation.
New formulas estimate life insurance benefits with less computation.
RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
Limited liability creates a conflict of interests between policyholders and shareholders of insurance companies. It provides shareholders with incentives to increase the risk of the insurer's assets and liabilities which, in turn, might reduce the value policyholders attach to and premiums they are willing to pay for i…
The aim of this paper is to introduce a method for computing the allocated Solvency II Capital Requirement (SCR) of each Risk which the company is exposed to, taking in account for the diversification effect among different risks. The method suggested is based on the Euler principle. We show that it has very suitable p…
Study validates Libor model for insurance benefits calculation.
Under Solvency II the computation of capital requirements is based on value at risk (V@R). V@R is a quantile-based risk measure and neglects extreme risks in the tail. V@R belongs to the family of distortion risk measures. A serious deficiency of V@R is that firms can hide their total downside risk in corporate network…
Compact formulas for evaluating insurance policies' risks.
New algorithm improves insurance company's asset allocation decisions.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.
Within the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment framework, the Solvency II directive introduces the need for insurance undertakings to have efficient tools enabling the companies to assess the continuous compliance with regulatory solvency requirements. Because of the great operational complexity resulting from each comple…
The paper optimizes dividend strategies for companies with assets and liabilities under solvency constraints.
As part of the new regulatory framework of Solvency II, introduced by the European Union, insurance companies are required to monitor their solvency by computing a key risk metric called the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The official description of the SCR is not rigorous and has lead researchers to develop their…
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
This paper investigates market-consistent valuation of insurance liabilities in the context of, for instance, Solvency II and to some extent IFRS 4. We propose an explicit and consistent framework for the valuation of insurance liabilities which incorporates the Solvency II approach as a special case. The proposed fram…
This study compares direct and indirect methods for estimating own funds in life insurance, finding indirect methods more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling.
Study on insurance risk management and sustainable development.
Study examines how EU's Value at Risk constraints affect insurance oligopolies.
New eco-systemic prudential policies aim to finance green companies, reducing systemic financial risk.
The study improves life insurance surrender risk modeling using various machine learning techniques.
We propose a Monte Carlo simulation method to generate stress tests by VaR scenarios under Solvency II for dependent risks on the basis of observed data. This is of particular interest for the construction of Internal Models and requirements on evaluation processes formulated in the Commission Delegated Regulation. The…
Under the Solvency II regime, life insurance companies are asked to derive their solvency capital requirements from the full loss distributions over the coming year. Since the industry is currently far from being endowed with sufficient computational capacities to fully simulate these distributions, the insurers have t…
In this paper we study data from the yearly reports the four major Swedish non-life insurers have sent to the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA). We aim at finding marginal distributions of, and dependence between, losses on the five largest lines of business (LoBs) in order to create models for Solvency Cap…
Proposes a new method for determining LGD discount rates based on cost of capital.
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk implements an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model. Measurements from the ASRF model of the prevailing state of Australia's economy and the level of capitalisation of its banking sector find general agreement with macroeconomic…
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database …
ClauseLens uses reinforcement learning to price reinsurance treaties transparently and auditably.
In this paper we discuss a natural extension of infinite discrete partition-of-unity copulas which were recently introduced in the literature to continuous partition of copulas with possible applications in risk management and other fields. We present a general simple algorithm to generate such copulas on the basis of …
Within the context of traditional life insurance, a model-independent relationship about how the market value of assets is attributed to the best estimate, the value of in-force business and tax is established. This relationship holds true for any portfolio under run-off assumptions and can be used for the validation o…
We present a framework on how to hedge the interest rate sensitivity of liabilities discounted by an extrapolated yield curve. The framework is based on functional analysis in that we consider the extrapolated yield curve as a functional of an observed yield curve and use its Gâteaux variation to understand the sensiti…
Practitioners sometimes suggest to use a combination of Sobol sequences and orthonormal polynomials when applying an LSMC algorithm for evaluation of option prices or in the context of risk capital calculation under the Solvency II regime. In this paper, we give a theoretical justification why good implementations of a…
Neural networks improve life insurance solvency calculations.
This paper formalizes autodeleveraging as online learning, providing robustness results and algorithms for better performance.
The objective of the present paper is to analyse various features of the Smith-Wilson method used for discounting under the EU regulation Solvency II, with special attention to hedging. In particular, we show that all key rate duration hedges of liabilities beyond the Last Liquid Point will be peculiar. Moreover, we sh…
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss modelling of life insurance and annuity portfolios which can be used in (partial) intern…