Heterogeneous SVO leads to diverse policies in sequential social dilemmas.
problem Understanding how diverse social value orientations affect behavior in sequential social dilemmas.
method Extending prior reinforcement learning studies, we instantiated heterogeneous SVO in a sequential social dilemma setting and measured task-specific diversity metrics.
result Heterogeneous SVO leads to meaningfully diverse policies across various incentive structures.
Study measures inequality in social-economic systems using Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
problem Measuring inequality in oscillatory social-economic systems described by Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics.
method Used Fokker-Planck equations and Lotka-Volterra dynamics to model inequality, focusing on coefficient of variation as a measure.
result Inequality initially tends to decrease in oscillatory systems, contrary to steady-state models.
Toward enabling next-generation robots capable of socially intelligent interaction with humans, we present a computationalmodel of interactions in a social environment of multiple agents and multiple groups. The Multiagent Group Perception and Interaction (MGpi) network is a deep neural network that predi…
This work shifts focus from prediction to intervention in social systems.
problem The limitations of focusing solely on prediction in automated decision systems.
method Shift from prediction-focused paradigm to intervention-oriented approach.
result A new perspective unifies statistical frameworks and tools for ADS design, implementation, and evaluation.
Algorithm learns fair division from noisy feedback in uncertain markets.
problem Learning fair division in uncertain markets with noisy feedback.
method Wrapper algorithms using dual averaging to learn item and agent values from bandit feedback.
result Asymptotically achieves optimal Nash social welfare in linear Fisher markets.
We compare the results of our earlier paper on the floating in neutral equilibrium at arbitrary orientation in the sense of Finn-Young with the literature on its counterpart in the sense of Archimedes. We add a few remarks of personal and social-historical character.
Social interactions and personal tastes shape our consumption behavior of cultural products. In this study, we present a computational model of a cultural market and we aim to analyze the behavior of the consumer population as an emergent phenomena. Our results suggest that the final market shares of cultural products …
Evolutionary clustering aims at capturing the temporal evolution of clusters. This issue is particularly important in the context of social media data that are naturally temporally driven. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model-based evolutionary clustering technique. The Temporal Multinomial Mixture (TMM)…
In this paper we consider reinsurance or risk sharing from a macroeconomic point of view. Our aim is to find socially optimal reinsurance treaties. In our setting we assume that there are n insurance companies each bearing a certain risk and one representative reinsurer. The optimization problem is to minimize the su…
The paper solves conditions for extending circle-valued Morse functions.
problem Conditions for extending circle-valued Morse functions on closed orientable surfaces.
method Provided necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a non-singular extension.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a non-singular extension of a circle-valued Morse function.
We consider a simple stochastic differential equation for modeling bubbles in social context. A prime example is bubbles in asset pricing, but similar mechanisms may control a range of social phenomena driven by psychological factors (for example, popularity of rock groups, or a number of students pursuing a given majo…
The study assesses the relative value of prediction in algorithmic decision making.
problem Improving welfare through better predictions versus other policy levers.
method Theoretical analysis of statistical models.
result Simple conditions determining the relative value of prediction.
This paper considers a statistical signal processing problem involving agent based models of financial markets which at a micro-level are driven by socially aware and risk- averse trading agents. These agents trade (buy or sell) stocks by exploiting information about the decisions of previous agents (social learning) v…
Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using deep learning with trading and social media indicators.
problem Predicting price movements of cryptocurrencies using deep learning.
method Used deep learning algorithms (MLP, CNN, LSTM, ALSTM) on hourly and daily data of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
result Unrestricted model with trading and social media indicators outperforms restricted model.
New analysis shows rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to catastrophic risk.
problem Rational actors will deploy AGI despite negative social value due to shared catastrophic risk.
method Continuous-time preemption game with shared catastrophic externalities, showing suicide region and welfare distortion.
result The suicide region widens as catastrophic risk grows, and two mechanisms can close it.
Study incentive efficiency in monopoly insurance markets with hidden information.
problem Maximizing social welfare in a monopoly insurance market with hidden agent types.
method Maximizes social welfare function subject to incentive compatibility and individual rationality constraints.
result Optimal menus of contracts depend on the level of social welfare weight and agent risk attitudes.
Historically, machine learning in computer security has prioritized defense: think intrusion detection systems, malware classification, and botnet traffic identification. Offense can benefit from data just as well. Social networks, with their access to extensive personal data, bot-friendly APIs, colloquial syntax, and …
An overwhelming number of true and false news stories are posted and shared in social networks, and users diffuse the stories based on multiple factors. Diffusion of news stories from one user to another depends not only on the stories' content and the genuineness but also on the alignment of the topical interests betw…
The study visualizes Spanish fish and meat processing companies using financial, environmental, and social ratios.
problem Mapping financial, environmental, and social performance of Spanish processing companies.
method Used compositional data and principal-component analysis biplot for statistical analysis.
result Identified clusters of companies with similar financial, environmental, and social performance.
It is well-known that self-linking is the only Z valued Vassiliev invariant of framed knots in S^3. However for most 3-manifolds, in particular for the total spaces of S^1-bundles over an orientable surface F not S^2, the space of Z-valued order one invariants is infinite dimensional. We give an explicit formula for th…
Investor emotions predict earnings announcements, but excitement lowers returns.
problem The impact of investor emotions on earnings announcements and their returns.
method Social media data analysis over a decade to test the relationship between investor emotions and earnings announcements.
result Excitement about earnings announcements is associated with lower announcement returns.
Indirect competition emerged from the complex organization of human societies, and knowledge of the existing network topology may aid in developing effective strategies for success. Here, we propose an agent-based model of competition with systems co-existing in a `small-world' social network. We show that within the r…
We give a new construction of the one-variable Alexander polynomial of an oriented knot or link, and show that it generalizes to a vector valued invariant of oriented tangles.
As machine learning models are increasingly used for high-stakes decision making, scholars have sought to intervene to ensure that such models do not encode undesirable social and political values. However, little attention thus far has been given to how values influence the machine learning discipline as a whole. How …
Let f:S2→S2 be an orientation-preserving branched covering map of degree d≥2, and let Σ be an oriented Jordan curve passing through the critical values of f. Then Γ:=f−1(Σ) is an oriented graph on the sphere. In a group email discussion in Fall 2010, W. Thurston introduced balanced planar graphs a…
How do we assign value to economic transactions? To answer this question, we must consider whether the value of objects is inherent, is a product of social interaction, or involves other mechanisms. Economic theory predicts that there is an optimal price for any market transaction, and can be observed during auctions o…
We study two kinds of economic exchange, additive and multiplicative, in a system of N agents. The work is divided in two parts, in the first one, the agents are free to interact with each other. The system evolves to a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution with additive exchange and condenses with a multiplicative one. If bank…
New perspective on APS indices preserves orientations and gradings through bordisms.
problem Preserving orientations and gradings in elliptic differential operators over the real numbers.
method New bordism-theoretic perspective on APS indices.
result Orientations and gradings can be propagated through bordisms.
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
problem Predicting stock market movement in uncertain economic conditions.
method Used LSTM and QLSTM models on monthly data of economic indicators.
result QLSTM provided more accurate predictions of KSE 100 index values.
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique "true val…
By means of a slight modification of the notion of GM-complexity, the present paper performs a graph-theoretical approach to the computation of (Matveev's) complexity for closed orientable 3-manifolds. In particular, the existing crystallization catalogue C^{28}, due to Lins, is used to obtain upper bounds for the comp…
China integrates ESG into corporate strategy for sustainable growth.
problem Corporate focus on short-term financial metrics.
method Deep integration of ESG principles into corporate culture and strategy.
result Companies are expected to fulfill social responsibilities and create long-term value.
We define an integer valued invariant of homology spheres using the methods of SU(3) gauge theory and study its behavior under orientation reversal and connected sum.
Introduces integer-valued Heegaard Floer theory with canonical orientations.
problem Defining and proving properties of Heegaard Floer homology over integers.
method Using canonical orientations from coupled Spin structures, proving naturality and surgery exact triangle.
result Established integer-valued Heegaard Floer theory and proved its properties.
We compare the values of the nonorientable three genus (or, crosscap number) and the nonorientable four genus of torus knots. In particular, let T(p,q) be any torus knot with p even and q odd. The difference between these two invariants on T(p,q) is at least k/2, where p = qk + a and 0 < a < q and k≥0. Hence, the…
This work surveys algorithmic recourse, aiming to clarify definitions and solutions.
problem Providing explanations and recommendations to individuals affected by automated decisions.
method Literature review and unified definitions, formulations, and solutions.
result Unified definitions and solutions for algorithmic recourse.
In recent years, we have been faced with a series of natural disasters causing a tremendous amount of financial, environmental, and human losses. The unpredictable nature of natural disasters' behavior makes it hard to have a comprehensive situational awareness (SA) to support disaster management. Using opinion surveys…
New framework for online influencer selection considering cost constraints.
problem Real-world social advertising budget limitations and cost variability of influencers.
method Introduces a budgeted framework for online influence maximization using an algorithm with semi-bandit feedback.
result Improves the state of the art regret bound for cardinality constraint setting.
Empirical data of supermarket sales show stylised facts that are similar to stock markets, with a broad (truncated) Levy distribution of weekly sales differences in the baseline sales [R.D. Groot, Physica A 353 (2005) 501]. To investigate the cause of this, the influence of social interactions and advertisements are st…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the value of a stock. The model presented in this paper is suited for pricing of options…
StepMix estimates mixture models with covariates for social science applications.
problem Estimating latent classes with covariates in social science models.
method Pseudo-likelihood estimation using one-, two-, and three-step approaches.
result Unified framework for expectation-maximization subroutines.
For a broad range of research, governmental and commercial applications it is important to understand the allegiances, communities and structure of key players in society. One promising direction towards extracting this information is to exploit the rich relational data in digital social networks (the social graph). As…
The paper localizes an index and provides a condition for the orientability of a monopole moduli space.
problem Localization of a KO∗(extpt)-valued index and orientability of the Pin−(2) monopole moduli space. method Introducing G±(n,s+,s−) structures and formulating characteristic submanifolds for these structures. result The KO∗(pt)-valued index is localized to the characteristic submanifold, and a condition for the moduli space to be orientable is provided. Proposes a value-oriented forecast reconciliation method for renewables in electricity markets.
problem Forecast reconciliation overlooks the value of forecasts in decision-making, leading to unfair outcomes.
method Value-oriented forecast reconciliation using a Nash bargaining framework and a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Consistently increases profits for all agents involved in an aggregated wind energy trading problem.
The excluded area between a pair of two-dimensional hard particles with given relative orientation is the region in which one particle cannot be located due to the presence of the other particle. The magnitude of the excluded area as a function of the relative particle orientation plays a major role in the determinatio…
In accessibility tests for digital preservation, over time we experience drifts of localized and labelled content in statistical models of evolving semantics represented as a vector field. This articulates the need to detect, measure, interpret and model outcomes of knowledge dynamics. To this end we employ a high-perf…
Blood glucose value prediction is an important task in diabetes management. While it is reported that glucose concentration is sensitive to social context such as mood, physical activity, stress, diet, alongside the influence of diabetes pathologies, we need more research on data and methodologies to incorporate and ev…
By a result of John Ball (1981), a locally orientation preserving Sobolev map is almost everywhere globally invertible whenever its boundary values admit a homeomorphic extension. As shown here for any dimension, the conclusions of Ball's theorem and related results can be reached while completely avoiding the problem …