A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose a principled algorithm for robust Bayesian filtering and smoothing in nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems when both the transition function and the measurement function are described by non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) models. GPs are gaining increasing importance in signal processing, machine learning,…
Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true when the model is well-specified, which is often not the case in practice. In thi…
Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, which provide a Bayesian nonparametric approach to smoothing and interpolation. We introduce simple closed form kernels that can be used with Gaussian processes to discover patterns and enable extrapolation. These kernels are derived by modelling a spectral dens…
Off-the-shelf Gaussian Process (GP) covariance functions encode smoothness assumptions on the structure of the function to be modeled. To model complex and non-differentiable functions, these smoothness assumptions are often too restrictive. One way to alleviate this limitation is to find a different representation of …
Wide neural networks can be closely approximated by Gaussian processes, with rates depending on the activation function's properties.
problem Approximating the behavior of wide neural networks using Gaussian processes.
method Established convergence rates for the central limit theorem in an infinite-dimensional functional space, using a transportation distance metric.
result Explicit convergence rates for neural networks approximated by Gaussian processes, varying based on the activation function's properties.
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
Gaussian processes are typically used for smoothing and interpolation on small datasets. We introduce a new Bayesian nonparametric framework -- GPatt -- enabling automatic pattern extrapolation with Gaussian processes on large multidimensional datasets. GPatt unifies and extends highly expressive kernels and fast exact…
The paper considers the problem of global optimization in the setup of stochastic process bandits. We introduce an UCB algorithm which builds a cascade of discretization trees based on generic chaining in order to render possible his operability over a continuous domain. The theoretical framework applies to functions u…
The paper explores the identifiability and interpretability of Gaussian process models using different kernel structures.
problem Identifiability and interpretability issues in Gaussian process models.
method The paper examines both single-output and multi-output Gaussian process models using additive and multiplicative mixtures of Matérn kernels.
result The smoothness of a mixture of Matérn kernels is determined by the least smooth component, and none of the mixing weights or parameters are identifiable.
Reciprocal processes are acausal generalizations of Markov processes introduced by Bernstein in 1932. In the literature, a significant amount of attention has been focused on developing dynamical models for reciprocal processes. Recently, probabilistic graphical models for reciprocal processes have been provided. This …
This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms. We show that many sigma-point methods can be interpreted as Gaussia…
It is now known that an extended Gaussian process model equipped with rescaling can adapt to different smoothness levels of a function valued parameter in many nonparametric Bayesian analyses, offering a posterior convergence rate that is optimal (up to logarithmic factors) for the smoothness class the true function be…
Paper speeds up Gaussian process inference using Matérn kernels.
problem Efficiently performing Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
method Exact Matérn kernel decomposition into empirical cumulative distribution functions, combined with divide-and-conquer approach.
result The proposed algorithm significantly speeds up Gaussian process inference for low-dimensional problems with hundreds of thousands of data points.
We derive expressions for the predicitive information rate (PIR) for the class of autoregressive Gaussian processes AR(N), both in terms of the prediction coefficients and in terms of the power spectral density. The latter result suggests a duality between the PIR and the multi-information rate for processes with mutua…
Neural-net-induced Gaussian process (NNGP) regression inherits both the high expressivity of deep neural networks (deep NNs) as well as the uncertainty quantification property of Gaussian processes (GPs). We generalize the current NNGP to first include a larger number of hyperparameters and subsequently train the model…
Reinforcement learning algorithms rely on exploration to discover new behaviors, which is typically achieved by following a stochastic policy. In continuous control tasks, policies with a Gaussian distribution have been widely adopted. Gaussian exploration however does not result in smooth trajectories that generally c…