Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.
problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at β ≤ log n β\leq \sqrt{\log n} β ≤ log n . This work maps Boltzmann distributions to ARNNs for better physics-based model approximations.
problem Approximating Boltzmann distributions of binary systems.
method Exact mapping of Boltzmann distribution to autoregressive neural network architecture.
result New ARNN architectures derived from physical models show superior performance.
In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where this objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Ha…
New algorithm nearly achieves ground state free energy of SK model.
problem Determining the ground state free energy of the SK model.
method Controlled Loosening-up (CLuP) algorithm applied to SK models.
result Achieves ground state free energy of ~0.76 for n in the thousands.
We propose a general framework for solving statistical mechanics of systems with finite size. The approach extends the celebrated variational mean-field approaches using autoregressive neural networks, which support direct sampling and exact calculation of normalized probability of configurations. It computes variation…
New method uses quantum annealing and VAN for better statistical mechanics calculations.
problem Difficulty in computing partition function in statistical mechanics.
method Combines quantum annealing samples with variational autoregressive networks.
result Enhanced accuracy in finite-size Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model.
New tools in nonlinear random matrices improve understanding of the Sum of Squares hierarchy.
problem Improving the Sum of Squares (SoS) hierarchy's performance on average-case problems.
method Developed new tools in nonlinear random matrices and applied them to analyze the SoS hierarchy.
result Subexponential-time SoS lower bounds for various problems, offering evidence for the low-degree likelihood ratio hypothesis.
We study the fundamental limits of detecting the presence of an additive rank-one perturbation, or spike, to a Wigner matrix. When the spike comes from a prior that is i.i.d. across coordinates, we prove that the log-likelihood ratio of the spiked model against the non-spiked one is asymptotically normal below a certai…
AMP algorithms can be efficiently simulated by SDPs even with corrupted data.
problem Optimizing average-case optimization problems with corrupted data.
method Local statistics hierarchy semidefinite programs (SDPs) simulate AMP algorithms robustly.
result Robust guarantees for many AMP algorithms are offered, contrasting with strong lower bounds for SDPs.
Using methods of statistical physics, we analyse the error of learning couplings in large Ising models from independent data (the inverse Ising problem). We concentrate on learning based on local cost functions, such as the pseudo-likelihood method for which the couplings are inferred independently for each spin. Assum…
New algorithm Momentum-QNG improves optimization of quantum circuits.
problem Optimizing variational quantum circuits to avoid local minima.
method Applied Langevin dynamics to QNG, introducing momentum term.
result Momentum-QNG outperforms basic QNG and other optimizers.
Many problems in real life can be converted to combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) on graphs, that is to find a best node state configuration or a network structure such that the designed objective function is optimized under some constraints. However, these problems are notorious for their hardness to solve bec…
Evolutionary strategy optimizes quantum circuit design and parameters.
problem Optimizing quantum circuit design and parameters for NISQ devices.
method Simple evolutionary strategy to optimize both circuit architecture and parameters.
result Minor slowdown on actual quantum hardware compared to simulations, with insights into mutation operations.
A new algorithm optimizes graph problems faster and more accurately.
problem Hard optimization problems on graphs.
method Gumbel-softmax technique with gradient descent and evolution strategy.
result High-quality solutions obtained with less time.
Study higher-order spin glass models for social network behavior with peer-group effects.
problem Modeling correlation phenomena on social networks with peer-group effects.
method Inference in higher-order Ising models to recover coefficients and peer-group effects.
result Strong concavity of log pseudo-likelihood implies statistical error rate of sqrt(d/n) for MPLE.
CLuP achieves near optimal ground state energies for positive and negative Hopfield models.
problem Finding near optimal ground state energies for positive and negative Hopfield models.
method Controlled Loosening-up (CLuP) algorithm with fully lifted random duality theory (fl RDT).
result Achieves ground state free energies of 1.77 1.77 1.77 and 0.33 0.33 0.33 for positive and negative Hopfield models respectively. Unified approach learns Ising models from various dynamics and data types.
problem Efficiently learning Ising model parameters from data under diverse conditions.
method Simple logistic regression approach, generalizing existing algorithms.
result Logistic regression succeeds in multiple new settings where assumptions are violated.
We describe and analyze some novel approaches for studying the dynamics of Ising spin glass models. We first briefly consider the variational approach based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between independent trajectories and the real ones and note that this approach only coincides with the mean field equ…
Estimates natural parameters of p-tensor Ising models efficiently.
problem Estimating natural parameters of p-tensor Ising models from a single sample.
method Maximum pseudo-likelihood (MPL) method.
result MPL estimate is sqrt(N)-consistent under various conditions.
Quantum algorithm speeds up MIP solving by a near-quadratic factor.
problem Solving Mixed Integer Programs (MIPs) efficiently.
method Incremental-Quantum-Branch-and-Bound algorithm combining quantum speedup with classical search heuristics.
result Universal near-quadratic speedup over classical Branch-and-Bound algorithms.
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
problem Modeling aggregate claim amount with frequency-severity and joint dependencies.
method Developed three types of BCART models: frequency-severity, sequential, and joint models. Used various distributions for claim severity data.
result Weibull distribution outperforms gamma and lognormal for right-skewed, heavy-tailed claim severity data.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Using model-based trees to partition feature space and create interpretable models.
result Model-based trees generate optimal surrogate models that balance interpretability and performance.
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
problem Improving generative model performance.
method Integrates a learnable Gauge Field into Flow ODEs.
result Gauge Flow Models outperform traditional Flow Models in Flow Matching experiments.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
problem Model predictions may not be robust under model extensions, limiting their applicability.
method The study uses causal ordering to assess robustness of qualitative model predictions and characterizes model extensions that preserve predictions.
result Conditions and techniques are provided to assess robustness of model predictions under model extensions.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
problem Ensemble pre-trained and lightly-finetuned foundation models for improved classification performance.
method Introduces trainable linear classifiers and computationally cheaper model averaging scheme (OMA).
result Ensembled models can better predict on various datasets.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.
problem Model risk in credit portfolio models.
method Demonstrates comprehensive yet easy-to-implement approach to uncertainty in model parameters.
result Comprehensive method to deal with model uncertainties.
The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.
problem Validating stock return models and predicting stock returns.
method Used Fama-French three-factor, four-factor, and five-factor models; also used LSTM model.
result Fama-French five-factor model shows better validity for stock returns.
Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.
problem Challenges in interpreting additive models, particularly neural additive models.
method Review of generalized additive models and discussion of nonidentifiability.
result Challenges in claiming interpretability or suitability for safety-critical applications of additive models.
Proposes a decision-theoretic approach for enhancing model interpretability in Bayesian frameworks.
problem Challenges the traditional approach of restricting model structure for interpretability in Bayesian frameworks.
method Introduces an interpretability utility function and a two-step method involving a reference model and a proxy model.
result Demonstrates that the proposed method generates more accurate models with the same level of interpretability.
Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.
problem Real-time diagnosis of complex systems.
method Combines machine learning and physics-based models to create reduced-order models.
result Generated models are two orders of magnitude simpler, improving efficiency.
CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of rich, multimodal models for ranking data.
method Contextual Repeated Selection (CRS) model for multimodal ranking data.
result CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods in various ranking contexts.
Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…
Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.
problem Understanding the relationship between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models.
method Exploring the mathematical correspondence between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models, including their geometric and trigonometric/elliptic deformations.
result Sigma models are mathematically equivalent to Gross-Neveu models under certain conditions.
Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…
Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.
problem Stealing functionality of private ML data by hiding models in a carrier model.
method Parameter sharing approach exploiting the learning capacity of the carrier model.
result Hides a 26x larger secret model or 8 secret models in the carrier model.
Eigen-stratified models reduce model size and improve performance.
problem Large model size in Laplacian-regularized stratified models.
method Formulate eigen-stratified models with linear combinations of bottom eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian.
result Significant reduction in model size with eigen-stratified models.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
This work develops scalable model selection methods with fast update and selection.
problem Efficient model selection for large pools of candidate models.
method Isolated model embedding, which supports asymptotically fast update and selection.
result Standardized Embedder achieves competitive model selection performances.
Paper proposes BMPO to optimize policies using bidirectional models.
problem Model-based reinforcement learning's reliance on forward model accuracy.
method Develops BMPO using both forward and backward models for policy optimization.
result BMPO outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance.
Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.
problem Model risk in multivariate risk forecasting, especially during crises.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing Copula-GARCH models with fixed marginals, copulas, or neither.
result Model risk is almost entirely due to copula choice, not marginal models.
This paper distills a complex travel mode choice model into simpler, interpretable models.
problem Lack of interpretability in complex machine learning models for travel behavior.
method Model distillation combined with market segmentation.
result Generated interpretable models that closely match the predictions of the original complex model.
BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.
problem Improving insurance loss predictions by combining multiple models.
method Pseudo-Bayesian model averaging, stacking, and hierarchical stacking.
result BayesBlend provides a user-friendly way to blend model predictions and estimate weights.
The paper identifies when larger models improve predictions and proposes a switcher model.
problem Understanding when larger models benefit from added complexity.
method Numerical studies on T5 architecture to analyze predictive uncertainty and model performance.
result Large models improve on examples where small models are uncertain, but not on certain examples.
Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.
problem Aggregating models from heterogeneous datasets with shared latent structures.
method Bayesian nonparametrics for identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations.
result Framework successfully aggregates various model types across different applications.
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
problem Generating samples from computationally expensive diffusion models.
method Extending speculative sampling to diffusion models, using fast draft models for candidate token generation.
result Significant speedup in generation, halving the number of function evaluations.
DBNs improve accuracy of biological ODE models with missing data.
problem Uncertainty in biological ODE models with missing data.
method Converted ODE models to DBNs and used Particle Filtering for parameter estimation.
result DBNs can accurately infer model variables with missing data.
We propose a generalization of neural network sequence models. Instead of predicting one symbol at a time, our multi-scale model makes predictions over multiple, potentially overlapping multi-symbol tokens. A variation of the byte-pair encoding (BPE) compression algorithm is used to learn the dictionary of tokens that …