A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New algorithm reduces communication in distributed learning by sharing compressed beliefs.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
RL agents fail to generalize to unseen environments, even when dynamics are similar.
Learning from multiple sources of information is an important problem in machine-learning research. The key challenges are learning representations and formulating inference methods that take into account the complementarity and redundancy of various information sources. In this paper we formulate a variational autoenc…
We introduce a formal language IE that is a variant of the language PAL developed in [van Benthem 2011] by adding a belief operator and a common belief operator,specializing to stochastic analysis. A constant symbol in the language denotes a stochastic process so that we can represent several financial events as formul…
We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …
Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share Exchange over time. Our model relaxes that heroic assumption of one unique "true val…
POLAR learns efficient data acquisition policies using pretrained belief representations.
Combines neural networks and probabilistic graphical models for efficient higher-order inference.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
Study finds risk sharing without convexity assumptions.
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
This paper simplifies complex game dynamics by using a recursive representation.
Data augmentation doesn't improve robustness, contrary to belief.
By elaborating on the notion of linear belief functions (Dempster 1990; Liu 1996), we propose an elementary approach to knowledge representation for expert systems using linear belief functions. We show how to use basic matrices to represent market information and financial knowledge, including complete ignorance, stat…
The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…
NBF combines deep learning with classical filtering for better belief tracking.
PBN combines generative and discriminative capabilities in a neural network.
Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single…
Study on Kyle-Back model with risk aversion and non-Gaussian beliefs.
We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief abo…
Improved error correction using neural networks and belief propagation.
Gaussian belief propagation (BP) has been widely used for distributed inference in large-scale networks such as the smart grid, sensor networks, and social networks, where local measurements/observations are scattered over a wide geographical area. One particular case is when two neighboring agents share a common obser…
The paper studies an oligopolistic equilibrium model of financial agents who aim to share their random endowments. The risk-sharing securities and their prices are endogenously determined as the outcome of a strategic game played among all the participating agents. In the complete-market setting, each agent's set of st…
Introduces epistemic deep learning for better uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
For text analysis, one often resorts to a lossy representation that either completely ignores word order or embeds each word as a low-dimensional dense feature vector. In this paper, we propose convolutional Poisson factor analysis (CPFA) that directly operates on a lossless representation that processes the words in e…
Applying traditional collaborative filtering to digital publishing is challenging because user data is very sparse due to the high volume of documents relative to the number of users. Content based approaches, on the other hand, is attractive because textual content is often very informative. In this paper we describe …
A new concept of confidence in learning is defined and analyzed.
Improves shared encoder representations for better multi-task learning performance.
Develops a Gaussian-based message-passing algorithm for noisy matrix completion.
Deep Belief Network predicts lncRNA-disease associations with high accuracy.
In this paper, we investigate the problem of learning disentangled representations. Given a pair of images sharing some attributes, we aim to create a low-dimensional representation which is split into two parts: a shared representation that captures the common information between the images and an exclusive representa…
When agents interact with a complex environment, they must form and maintain beliefs about the relevant aspects of that environment. We propose a way to efficiently train expressive generative models in complex environments. We show that a predictive algorithm with an expressive generative model can form stable belief-…
HCL learns shared and modality-specific latent representations for multimodal data.
This research shows how to learn shared representations from unpaired data.
First-order ANIL learns shared representations even with overparametrization.
There are now a broad range of time series classification (TSC) algorithms designed to exploit different representations of the data. These have been evaluated on a range of problems hosted at the UCR-UEA TSC Archive (www.timeseriesclassification.com), and there have been extensive comparative studies. However, our und…
Unpaired multi-domain causal representation learning is possible with sufficient conditions.
We introduce Recurrent Predictive State Policy (RPSP) networks, a recurrent architecture that brings insights from predictive state representations to reinforcement learning in partially observable environments. Predictive state policy networks consist of a recursive filter, which keeps track of a belief about the stat…
Improved AutoDML estimator for causal inference using outcome-adapted shared covariate representation.
New algorithms minimize regret in multi-task and lifelong linear bandits with shared representation.
We study the problem of distributed multi-task learning with shared representation, where each machine aims to learn a separate, but related, task in an unknown shared low-dimensional subspaces, i.e. when the predictor matrix has low rank. We consider a setting where each task is handled by a different machine, with sa…
New bounds on learning shared representations improve model performance and efficiency.
This paper investigates the effects of the "uptick rule" (a short selling regulation formally known as rule 10a-1) by means of a simple stock market model, based on the ARED (adaptive rational equilibrium dynamics) modeling framework, where heterogeneous and adaptive beliefs on the future prices of a risky asset were f…
The purpose of this article is to describe all possible beliefs of market participants on objective measures under Markovian environments when a risk-neutral measure is given. To achieve this, we employ the Martin integral representation of Markovian pricing kernels. Then, we offer economic and financial implications o…
Unsupervised deep learning is one of the most powerful representation learning techniques. Restricted Boltzman machine, sparse coding, regularized auto-encoders, and convolutional neural networks are pioneering building blocks of deep learning. In this paper, we propose a new building block -- distributed random models…
New framework models epistemic uncertainty in GNNs using random sets.