A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes LDIDPs for efficient sequential data generation from latent dynamical models.
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling with limited applicability to large data sets. W…
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
How to model distribution of sequential data, including but not limited to speech and human motions, is an important ongoing research problem. It has been demonstrated that model capacity can be significantly enhanced by introducing stochastic latent variables in the hidden states of recurrent neural networks. Simultan…
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
NAS-X improves inference and model learning for SLVMs.
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
New algorithm improves latent variable model estimation.
New method selects features for sequential decision making.
Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently pr…
We present a factorized hierarchical variational autoencoder, which learns disentangled and interpretable representations from sequential data without supervision. Specifically, we exploit the multi-scale nature of information in sequential data by formulating it explicitly within a factorized hierarchical graphical mo…
New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.
New method disentangles latent variables in nonstationary data.
GFlowNet-EM learns complex latent variable models with discrete structures.
Many real-world engineering problems rely on human preferences to guide their design and optimization. We present PrefOpt, an open source package to simplify sequential optimization tasks that incorporate human preference feedback. Our approach extends an existing latent variable model for binary preferences to allow f…
Learning parameters of latent graphical models (GM) is inherently much harder than that of no-latent ones since the latent variables make the corresponding log-likelihood non-concave. Nevertheless, expectation-maximization schemes are popularly used in practice, but they are typically stuck in local optima. In the rece…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple immediately preceding frames is unrealistic; more complicated dynamics potentially ex…
In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic sequence model that excels at capturing high variability in time series data, both across sequences and within an individual sequence. Our method uses temporal latent variables to capture information about the underlying data pattern and dynamically decodes the latent info…
We develop a novel "decouple-recouple" dynamic predictive strategy and contribute to the literature on forecasting and economic decision making in a data-rich environment. Under this framework, clusters of predictors generate different latent states in the form of predictive densities that are later synthesized within …
Stochastic recurrent neural networks with latent random variables of complex dependency structures have shown to be more successful in modeling sequential data than deterministic deep models. However, the majority of existing methods have limited expressive power due to the Gaussian assumption of latent variables. In t…
We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We describe a procedure for constructing and learning a structured neural network whic…
LADD models improve discrete diffusion for faster language generation.
We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors…
Online method for state estimation and parameter learning in SSMs.
Optimal recommendation system using user and item clustering.
Proposes a method to learn from historical data for personalized decision-making.
This paper improves level generation using VAEs for coherent, logically following segments.
Due to the phenomenon of "posterior collapse," current latent variable generative models pose a challenging design choice that either weakens the capacity of the decoder or requires augmenting the objective so it does not only maximize the likelihood of the data. In this paper, we propose an alternative that utilizes t…
Paper proposes semi-supervised learning with triplet Markov chains.
Improves Bayesian optimisation for engineering design problems with many variables.
Improved SVAE models enhance sequential data prediction.
Diverse and accurate vision+language modeling is an important goal to retain creative freedom and maintain user engagement. However, adequately capturing the intricacies of diversity in language models is challenging. Recent works commonly resort to latent variable models augmented with more or less supervision from ob…
Paper improves VAEs using Monte Carlo methods.
Learning a model of dynamics from high-dimensional images can be a core ingredient for success in many applications across different domains, especially in sequential decision making. However, currently prevailing methods based on latent-variable models are limited to working with low resolution images only. In this wo…
A new method for training generative models with sparse supervision.
Context-aware recommender systems (CARSs) apply sensing and analysis of user context in order to provide personalized services. Adding context to a recommendation model is challenging, since the addition of context may increases both the dimensionality and sparsity of the model. Recent research has shown that modeling …
This paper presents the Poisson-randomized gamma dynamical system (PRGDS), a model for sequentially observed count tensors that encodes a strong inductive bias toward sparsity and burstiness. The PRGDS is based on a new motif in Bayesian latent variable modeling, an alternating chain of discrete Poisson and continuous …
We improve a graph generation model to accurately recover Barabási-Albert graph parameters.
Proposes a VAE with a discrete bottleneck for better text generation.
This paper proposes a generative model, the latent Dirichlet hidden Markov models (LDHMM), for characterizing a database of sequential behaviors (sequences). LDHMMs posit that each sequence is generated by an underlying Markov chain process, which are controlled by the corresponding parameters (i.e., the initial state …
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
StepMix estimates mixture models with covariates for social science applications.
We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing both first-order and long-range temporal dependencies. Using sophisticated but simp…
This thesis improves deep sequence models by integrating probabilistic methods for uncertainty quantification.
This paper tackles sequential distribution shifts in representation learning.
New method estimates treatment effects over time with unobserved confounders.
Improved variational inference for GPLVMs using AIS.
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.