A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Develops a new framework for analyzing sequential decision-making problems using information theory.
problem Lack of information-theoretic generalization bounds for sequential decision-making problems.
method Introduces a sequential supersample framework that separates learner filtration from proof-side enlargement, controlling the generalization gap by sequential CMI.
result Establishes a sequential CMI that controls the generalization gap in sequential decision-making problems.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
The paper proposes a fair reinforcement learning framework to prevent healthcare disparities.
problem Unfair reinforcement learning policies in healthcare can lead to socioeconomically-disadvantaged subgroups being underprivileged.
method The paper introduces a counterfactual fairness framework and a sequential data preprocessing algorithm to achieve fair sequential decision making.
result The proposed approach greatly enhances fair access to counseling in a digital health dataset designed to reduce opioid misuse.
We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach that explains observed data while capturing predictive uncertainty during the d…
The paper proposes a method to construct confidence sets using likelihood ratios for sequential decision-making.
problem Constructing valid uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities in sequential decision-making.
method The method uses likelihood ratios to create any-time valid confidence sequences without specialized treatment for each application.
result The proposed confidence sets maintain the prescribed coverage in a model-agnostic manner and their size depends on the choice of estimator sequence.
The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume any parametric form on the joint distribution of the observed data and plays an…
This thesis analyzes MACL systems with low-regret learning algorithms for sequential decision making.
problem Designing efficient learning algorithms for multi-agent cooperative systems to minimize regret.
method Analyzes and develops algorithms for cooperative multi-agent multi-armed bandit problems and online convex optimization in distributed settings.
result Presented regret lower bounds and efficient algorithms for achieving these bounds, providing guidance on communication protocols.
We describe theoretical bounds and a practical algorithm for teaching a model by demonstration in a sequential decision making environment. Unlike previous efforts that have optimized learners that watch a teacher demonstrate a static policy, we focus on the teacher as a decision maker who can dynamically choose differ…
The paper shows optimal robustness against adversarial corruption in sequential decision-making problems.
problem Optimal robustness to adversarial corruption in online decision-making problems.
method Investigates prediction with expert advice and multi-armed bandit problems, focusing on algorithms with decreasing learning rates and second-order regret bounds.
result Optimal robustness can be expressed by a square-root dependency on the amount of corruption, achieving O(ΔlogN+ΔClogN)-regret.
Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for each possible environment. The predictive distribution can then be constructed b…
We connect a broad class of generative models through their shared reliance on sequential decision making. Motivated by this view, we develop extensions to an existing model, and then explore the idea further in the context of data imputation -- perhaps the simplest setting in which to investigate the relation between …