Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…
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48 results for “Sequential Bayesian Quadrature”
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised when selecting samples in kernel herding is equivalent to the posterior varianc…
Combines control variates and adaptive importance sampling for Monte Carlo integration.
problem Improving Monte Carlo integration accuracy with control variates and adaptive sampling.
method A quadrature rule combining control variates and adaptive importance sampling.
result Non-asymptotic bound on the probabilistic error of the procedure.
Adaptive quadrature improves Bayesian inference through active learning.
problem Efficiently estimating posterior densities in Bayesian inference.
method Sequential node selection using acquisition functions, combining interpolative surrogate models and quadrature rules.
result Positive estimation of marginal likelihood with improved accuracy.
Bayesian Probabilistic Integration uses BART for high-dimensional, non-smooth functions.
problem Bayesian quadrature's limitations in high-dimensional or non-smooth functions.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors for numerical integration.
result Explicit convergence rates can be obtained in various settings.
Improves Bayesian optimization for multi-fidelity functions.
problem Inefficient estimation of black-box functions due to ignored or oversimplified correlations between fidelities.
method Proposes DNN-MFBO using deep neural networks to capture complex relationships between fidelities.
result Shows significant improvement in optimization performance on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Bayesian quadrature uses probabilistic models for estimating intractable integrals.
problem Estimating intractable integrals in complex models.
method Probabilistic, model-based approach using Gaussian processes.
result Comprehensive review and systematic taxonomy of Bayesian quadrature methods.
SOBER: Highly Parallel Bayesian Optimization and Bayesian Quadrature over Discrete and Mixed Spacescs.LG
SOBER optimizes and quadrates efficiently in parallel for diverse tasks.
problem Scalability of batch Bayesian optimization and quadrature for expensive functions.
method Reformulates batch selection as a quadrature problem, balancing exploitation and exploration.
result SOBER outperforms 11 baselines on 12 tasks.
Bayesian quadrature improves integration efficiency with invariant priors.
problem Efficient numerical integration with known structure.
method Invariance priors for bijective transformations in input domain.
result Superior performance in synthetic and real-world applications.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
The paper analyzes greedy algorithms for MMD minimization, showing their efficiency and approximation error.
problem Minimizing Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for probability measure quantization.
method Iterative algorithms including kernel herding, greedy MMD minimization, and Sequential Bayesian Quadrature (SBQ).
result The greedy algorithms have a lower approximation error than SBQ, but are significantly faster.
The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio , where and encode the smoothness and dimension of the integrand. However, an empirical investigation re…
Adaptive Bayesian quadrature (ABQ) is a powerful approach to numerical integration that empirically compares favorably with Monte Carlo integration on problems of medium dimensionality (where non-adaptive quadrature is not competitive). Its key ingredient is an acquisition function that changes as a function of previou…
Parallelized Bayesian quadrature improves sample efficiency and inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference and model evidence calculation.
method Batch Bayesian quadrature with kernel recombination for parallel sampling.
result Empirically, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
problem Improving risk assessment for machine learning models.
method Revisiting conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and proposing Bayesian quadrature.
result Provides interpretable guarantees and a richer representation of likely losses.
DBQPG improves policy gradient estimation with fewer samples.
problem Accurate policy gradient estimation with limited samples.
method Deep Bayesian Quadrature Policy Gradient (DBQPG).
result DBQPG provides more accurate and less variable gradient estimates.
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
The computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has been improved by using surrogate models such as Gaussian processes (GP). In one such promising framework the discrepancy between the simulated and observed data is modelled with a GP which is further used to form a model-based estimator for the …
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
BayesSum improves Bayesian quadrature for discrete domains, requiring fewer samples.
problem Estimating intractable expectations over discrete domains.
method BayesSum is a Bayesian quadrature extension for discrete domains, leveraging prior information through Gaussian processes.
result BayesSum requires fewer samples than Monte Carlo, achieving faster convergence rates.
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic numerical integration technique that performs promisingly when compared to traditional…
This paper presents a convergence analysis of kernel-based quadrature rules in misspecified settings, focusing on deterministic quadrature in Sobolev spaces. In particular, we deal with misspecified settings where a test integrand is less smooth than a Sobolev RKHS based on which a quadrature rule is constructed. We pr…
The paper improves error bounds for Bayesian quadrature in noisy settings.
problem Improving error bounds for Bayesian quadrature in noisy settings.
method Develops a two-step meta-algorithm to relate average-case quadrature error to -function approximation error.
result Provides new average-case results for various kernels and noise settings.
Finite-horizon sequential experimental design (SED) arises naturally in many contexts, including hyperparameter tuning in machine learning among more traditional settings. Computing the optimal policy for such problems requires solving Bellman equations, which are generally intractable. Most existing work resorts to se…
Bayesian quadrature improves integration on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Efficiently computing integrals on nonlinear geometric data.
method Probabilistic numerical methods, specifically Bayesian quadrature, on Riemannian manifolds.
result Bayesian quadrature reduces the number of function evaluations compared to Monte Carlo methods.
Kernel quadrature with DPPsstat.ML
We study quadrature rules for functions from an RKHS, using nodes sampled from a determinantal point process (DPP). DPPs are parametrized by a kernel, and we use a truncated and saturated version of the RKHS kernel. This link between the two kernels, along with DPP machinery, leads to relatively tight bounds on the qua…
We present an improved Bayesian framework for performing inference of affine transformations of constrained functions. We focus on quadrature with nonnegative functions, a common task in Bayesian inference. We consider constraints on the range of the function of interest, such as nonnegativity or boundedness. Although …
A Quadrature Approach for General-Purpose Batch Bayesian Optimization via Probabilistic Liftingcs.LG
SOBER framework optimizes Bayesian optimization tasks efficiently.
problem Challenges in parallel Bayesian optimization.
method Probabilistic Lifting with Kernel Quadrature.
result Versatile and flexible batch Bayesian optimization.
Kernelized Normalizing Constant Estimation: Bridging Bayesian Quadrature and Bayesian Optimizationcs.LG
The paper studies estimating the normalizing constant using queries to a black-box function in RKHS.
problem Estimating the normalizing constant of a function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
method Combines Bayesian quadrature and Bayesian optimization approaches, considering different levels of difficulty based on the parameter λ.
result The difficulty of estimating the normalizing constant varies between Bayesian quadrature and Bayesian optimization, even with noisy function evaluations.
Bayesian optimisation has been successfully applied to a variety of reinforcement learning problems. However, the traditional approach for learning optimal policies in simulators does not utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables: state features that are unobservable and ran…
There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical analysis. A…
An exciting branch of machine learning research focuses on methods for learning, optimizing, and integrating unknown functions that are difficult or costly to evaluate. A popular Bayesian approach to this problem uses a Gaussian process (GP) to construct a posterior distribution over the function of interest given a se…
The rate of convergence of weighted kernel herding (WKH) and sequential Bayesian quadrature (SBQ), two kernel-based sampling algorithms for estimating integrals with respect to some target probability measure, is investigated. Under verifiable conditions on the chosen kernel and target measure, we establish a near-geom…
Paper proposes a new estimator for nested expectations with faster convergence.
problem Estimating nested expectations is computationally challenging.
method Nested kernel quadrature estimators with proof of faster convergence rate.
result The proposed method requires fewer samples for accurate estimation.
The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable…
Computation of moments of transformed random variables is a problem appearing in many engineering applications. The current methods for moment transformation are mostly based on the classical quadrature rules which cannot account for the approximation errors. Our aim is to design a method for moment transformation for …
Bayesian neural networks speed up numerical integration.
problem Scalability of Bayesian quadrature methods.
method Bayesian Stein networks using neural networks and Laplace approximation.
result Orders of magnitude speed-up on benchmark functions and real-world problems.
We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for computationally expensive models. Previous research has shown that BQ offers sample effic…
Paper proposes efficient AL algorithms for optimizing product performance under environmental variability.
problem Optimizing product performance under varying environmental conditions.
method Formulated as Bayesian Quadrature Optimization problems for probabilistic threshold robustness measure using Gaussian Process model.
result Proposed algorithms provide credible intervals for probabilistic threshold robustness measure and demonstrate efficiency in real-world applications.
Bayesian quadrature optimization (BQO) maximizes the expectation of an expensive black-box integrand taken over a known probability distribution. In this work, we study BQO under distributional uncertainty in which the underlying probability distribution is unknown except for a limited set of its i.i.d. samples. A stan…
New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.
problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.
New sampling methods improve Shapley value estimation for machine learning models.
problem Approximating Shapley values for non-trivial models is computationally challenging.
method Investigates new quadrature techniques and quasi-Monte Carlo methods for permutation sampling.
result Significant improvements in Shapley value estimates over existing methods.
Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to incomplete/finite information about the continuous mathematical problem being approxi…
TQ separates sampling and integration for high-dimensional integrals.
problem High-dimensional integration challenges in science.
method Tree Quadrature (TQ) constructs a surrogate model using regression trees.
result TQ outperforms existing methods in up to 15 dimensions.
There is resurging interest, in statistics and machine learning, in solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return probability measures instead of point estimates. Recently, Conrad et al. introduced a sampling-based class of methods that are 'well-calibrated' in a specific sense. But the computational c…
Adaptive batch sizes improve active learning efficiency and flexibility.
problem Fixed batch sizes in active learning are inefficient due to dynamic cost-speed trade-offs.
method Probabilistic Numerics framework that adaptively changes batch sizes based on integration error and precision objectives.
result Significant enhancement in learning efficiency and flexibility across various applications.
This paper provides a dictionary of closed-form kernel mean embeddings.
problem Challenges in deriving closed-form kernel mean embeddings.
method Comprehensive dictionary and practical tools for deriving new embeddings.
result Provides a Python library with minimal implementations of embeddings.