A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Strong stability of ergodic iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous event sequence analysis under the framework of Hawkes processes by leveraging the …
Several machine learning problems arising in natural language processing can be modeled as a sequence labeling problem. We provide Gaussian process models based on pseudo-likelihood approximation to perform sequence labeling. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a Bayesian approach to learning in a kernel based framework. …
Develops a new point process model for detecting neural spike sequences.
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model, whi…
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
Meta-learning improves event prediction from short sequences.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
Study connects Gaussian processes and regularization for sequence-function mappings.
We propose a novel adversarial learning strategy for mixture models of Hawkes processes, leveraging data augmentation techniques of Hawkes process in the framework of self-paced learning. Instead of learning a mixture model directly from a set of event sequences drawn from different Hawkes processes, the proposed metho…
CGAN fails to improve deterministic sequence predictions, revealing a theoretical limitation.
The paper extends sequences while preserving statistical properties using a mixture model.
IAE extracts innovations sequences for non-Gaussian processes.
Computer simulations have become a popular tool of assessing complex skills such as problem-solving skills. Log files of computer-based items record the entire human-computer interactive processes for each respondent. The response processes are very diverse, noisy, and of nonstandard formats. Few generic methods have b…
This work compresses sequences by treating them as continuous-time processes, enabling efficient discretization.
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
Paper proposes a faster RAE with sequence-aware encoding.
Deep learning models optimize protein sequences.
Temporal point process is an expressive tool for modeling event sequences over time. In this paper, we take a reinforcement learning view whereby the observed sequences are assumed to be generated from a mixture of latent policies. The purpose is to cluster the sequences with different temporal patterns into the underl…
We present a probabilistic model for unsupervised alignment of high-dimensional time-warped sequences based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM). We follow the approach introduced in (Kazlauskaite, 2018) of simultaneously representing each data sequence as a composition of a true underlying function and a time…
We present methods for online linear optimization that take advantage of benign (as opposed to worst-case) sequences. Specifically if the sequence encountered by the learner is described well by a known "predictable process", the algorithms presented enjoy tighter bounds as compared to the typical worst case bounds. Ad…
Sequence set is a widely-used type of data source in a large variety of fields. A typical example is protein structure prediction, which takes an multiple sequence alignment (MSA) as input and aims to infer structural information from it. Almost all of the existing approaches exploit MSAs in an indirect fashion, i.e., …
We develop constructions for exchangeable sequences of point processes that are rendered conditionally-i.i.d. negative binomial processes by a (possibly unknown) random measure called the base measure. Negative binomial processes are useful in Bayesian nonparametrics as models for random multisets, and in applications …
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, an…
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
We target modeling latent dynamics in high-dimension marked event sequences without any prior knowledge about marker relations. Such problem has been rarely studied by previous works which would have fundamental difficulty to handle the arisen challenges: 1) the high-dimensional markers and unknown relation network amo…
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurr…
Various and ubiquitous information systems are being used in monitoring, exchanging, and collecting information. These systems are generating massive amount of event sequence logs that may help us understand underlying phenomenon. By analyzing these logs, we can learn process models that describe system procedures, pre…
Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insights into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the \emph{Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation} (BaNPPA), a latent-function model for time-sequences, which automatically infers the numbe…
Graph Hawkes Neural Network forecasts evolving graph sequences.
Deep learning models forecast stock market orders over multiple time frames.
In order to better model high-dimensional sequential data, we propose a collaborative multi-output Gaussian process dynamical system (CGPDS), which is a novel variant of GPDSs. The proposed model assumes that the output on each dimension is controlled by a shared global latent process and a private local latent process…
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions…
Develops new e-processes and confidence sequences for Gaussian means with unknown variance.
Implementing enterprise process automation often requires significant technical expertise and engineering effort. It would be beneficial for non-technical users to be able to describe a business process in natural language and have an intelligent system generate the workflow that can be automatically executed. A buildi…
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
New model controls memory in seq2seq tasks, revealing learning regimes.
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…
Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP) is a semi-autoregressive framework for generating asynchronous event sequences.
Syntactic constituency parsing is a fundamental problem in natural language processing and has been the subject of intensive research and engineering for decades. As a result, the most accurate parsers are domain specific, complex, and inefficient. In this paper we show that the domain agnostic attention-enhanced seque…
New algorithms extract low-dimensional representations from sequential data, revealing insights into complex processes.
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is used for GP emission, we call this model as a hybrid HMM-GPSM. This model can e…
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capt…
Global Memory Augmentation (GMAT) improves Transformer performance on long documents.
We study the problem of learning Granger causality between event types from asynchronous, interdependent, multi-type event sequences. Existing work suffers from either limited model flexibility or poor model explainability and thus fails to uncover Granger causality across a wide variety of event sequences with diverse…
Process Monitoring involves tracking a system's behaviors, evaluating the current state of the system, and discovering interesting events that require immediate actions. In this paper, we consider monitoring temporal system state sequences to help detect the changes of dynamic systems, check the divergence of the syste…
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.