New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel rates of convergence for deep feedforward neural nets. Our new rates are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second-step inference after first-step estimation with deep learning, a re…
Knowledge distillation improves model accuracy by mimicking teacher model probabilities.
problem Improving model accuracy through model compression.
method Casting knowledge distillation as a semiparametric inference problem, deriving new guarantees, and developing enhancements.
result Enhancements improve student performance by mitigating teacher overfitting and underfitting.
Bayesian method estimates QTEs from observational data.
problem Estimating nuanced characteristics of counterfactual distributions.
method Bayesian semiparametric conditional distribution regression model with double balancing score.
result Proposed method provides more accurate QTE estimates than other methods.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
Improves DRL for long-term causal inference with semiparametric methods.
problem Efficient inference for policy values in nonparametric MDPs with stringent conditions.
method Semiparametric Double Reinforcement Learning (DRL) with superefficient nonparametric estimators.
result Relaxes overlap conditions and reduces high-dimensional density-ratio estimation.
We present semiparametric spectral modeling of the complete larval Drosophila mushroom body connectome. Motivated by a thorough exploratory data analysis of the network via Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM) in the adjacency spectral embedding (ASE) representation space, we introduce the latent structure model (LSM) for n…
DNA-SE uses deep learning to solve semiparametric problems efficiently.
problem Solving semiparametric integral equations in high dimensions.
method Formulates semiparametric estimation as a bi-level optimization problem and uses DNN to approximate solutions.
result Demonstrates numerical and statistical advantages over traditional methods.
The paper introduces a DRM for causal inference, offering a flexible method to analyze counterfactual distributions.
problem Estimating mean causal effects is limited; a distributional perspective is needed for a more thorough understanding.
method The paper employs a semiparametric density ratio model (DRM) with an empirical likelihood (EL) approach to estimate counterfactual distribution functions.
result The DRM framework enables direct and transparent causal inference from a distributional perspective, validated by numerical studies.
New method handles missing data using AI for efficient inference.
problem Parameter estimation and inference with blockwise missing data.
method Tractable solution using AI models and semiparametric theory.
result IBM(RAY) and IBM(Adaptive) estimators achieve efficiency gains.
Efficient inference for adaptive data with directional stability condition.
problem Efficient inference on scalar targets after adaptive data collection.
method Introduces directional stability, a weaker condition than i.i.d. data, and shows asymptotic normality and efficiency of estimators.
result Estimators remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient under directional stability.
New method estimates treatment effects from treated and unlabeled units.
problem Estimating ATEs with missing data and weak supervision.
method Develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE in PU learning.
result Constructs estimators that achieve semiparametric efficiency bounds.
Proposes a method for valid inference in GPLSIMs with longitudinal data.
problem Challenges in longitudinal data inference due to within-subject correlation and unstable variance estimation.
method Profile estimating-equation approach using spline approximation and block empirical likelihood.
result Block empirical likelihood ratio statistic with Wilks-type chi-square limit for joint inference.
Bayesian framework for semiparametric regression of discrete data.
problem Complex distributional features of discrete data.
method Semiparametric modeling with nonparametric marginal and latent linear regression.
result Posterior consistency and analytical/posterior predictive distributions.
The US Census Bureau corrupts data to protect privacy, but we show how to clean and analyze it effectively.
problem Analyzing Census data with intentional corruption to maintain privacy.
method Formulated a semiparametric model, proposed data cleaning, estimation, and inference procedures.
result Demonstrated that data cleaning can maintain precision and provided theoretical and empirical support.
Optimal online data collection for semiparametric inference reduces regret.
problem Sequential data collection decisions for efficient estimation under budget constraints.
method Online Moment Selection framework; Explore-then-Commit and Explore-then-Greedy policies.
result Online data collection policies achieve zero regret relative to an oracle policy.
This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.
problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.
Bayesian method corrects bias in treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
method Bayesian debiasing, targeted modeling, sample splitting.
result Marginal posterior for ATE satisfies Bernstein-von Mises theorem under correct nuisance model specification.
Bayesian methods improve DiD analysis for ATT estimation.
problem Estimating ATT in DiD designs with improved accuracy.
method Semiparametric Bayesian outcome regression and doubly robust adjustment.
result Bayesian methods provide strong finite-sample performance.
Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Proposes methods to identify and estimate counterfactual distributions with confounding.
problem Estimating counterfactual distributions in the presence of confounding.
method Nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation using conditional copulas and machine learning.
result Valid inference for individual-level effects and nonparametric identifiability of latent confounding subspace.
Proximal Mediation Analysis with Hidden Recanting Witnesses
problem Identifying path-specific effects in mediation analysis when recanting witnesses are unknown
method Proximal causal inference and semiparametric inference framework
result Developed three novel identification strategies and a semiparametric inference framework
Develops efficient inference for noise heterogeneity in machine learning models.
problem Downstream procedures based on residuals can be biased in additive noise models.
method Semiparametrically efficient inference using a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator.
result Constructs tests and confidence intervals for residual independence and goodness of fit.
New method for valid prediction intervals with coarsened data.
problem Handling missing data and censored outcomes in training samples.
method Multiply robust conformal risk control with semiparametric theory.
result Stronger coverage properties under covariate shift.
We propose a likelihood ratio based inferential framework for high dimensional semiparametric generalized linear models. This framework addresses a variety of challenging problems in high dimensional data analysis, including incomplete data, selection bias, and heterogeneous multitask learning. Our work has three main …
Recent methods for estimating sparse undirected graphs for real-valued data in high dimensional problems rely heavily on the assumption of normality. We show how to use a semiparametric Gaussian copula--or "nonparanormal"--for high dimensional inference. Just as additive models extend linear models by replacing linear …
DeepMed uses DNNs to estimate causal mediation effects without sparsity constraints.
problem Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis.
method DeepMed employs deep neural networks to cross-fit infinite-dimensional nuisance functions.
result DeepMed achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and adapts to low-dimensional nuisance structures.
Framework assesses variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem High-risk domains need reliable methods to assess treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Inferential framework based on Shapley values and semiparametric theory.
result Valid inference on variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects.
A new causal graph framework identifies treatment effects without adjusting for confounders.
problem Invalid identification of causal effects due to unmeasured confounders.
method Developed the Napkin graph to identify causal effects through a ratio of g-formulas, using influence-function-based estimators.
result Demonstrated substantial efficiency gains in estimating causal effects using the Napkin graph.
Kernel ridge regression for causal inference with missing data.
problem Estimating treatment effects with missing data in selected samples.
method Kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates for continuous treatment, root-n consistency for discrete treatment.
Automates debiasing for large language model evaluations through Fisher random walk.
problem Rigorous and scalable evaluation of large language models.
method Semiparametric efficient estimator using Fisher random walk for weighted residual balancing.
result Efficient estimation of contextual preference scores for large language models.
Semiparametric STAR model improves mental health data analysis.
problem Overdispersed, zero-inflated, bounded count data in self-reported mental health surveys.
method STAR transformation and rounding of latent Gaussian model, nonparametric transformation estimation, EM algorithm for maximum likelihood.
result Substantial improvements in goodness-of-fit compared to existing models.
Paper develops PGMM framework for debiased inference on nonparametric IV estimators.
problem Automatic debiased inference on nonparametric IV functionals.
method Penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for functionals of IV estimators.
result PGMM-based debiased estimator performs well, achieving near-nominal coverage.
Framework for multi-task learning with semiparametric models and nuisance parameters.
problem Improving parameter estimation from diverse, heterogeneous datasets.
method Late fusion multi-task learning framework with two-step process: individual task learning followed by adaptive aggregation.
result The method achieves faster convergence rates compared to individual task learning when tasks share similar parametric components.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
Proposes adversarial method to estimate Riesz representer.
problem Estimating causal parameters as linear functionals of an underlying regression.
method Adversarial framework using general function spaces.
result Nonasymptotic mean square rate proved for neural networks, random forests, and RKHS.
The paper develops methods for causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple outcomes.
problem Causal inference from single-cell RNA sequencing data with multiple heterogeneous outcomes.
method Generic semiparametric inference framework for doubly robust estimation with multiple derived outcomes.
result Demonstrates the use of semiparametric inferential results for estimating causal effects in genomics.
Proposes a robust estimator for high-dimensional data with heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with many more regressors than observations.
method Doubly robust two-stage semiparametric difference-in-difference estimator using machine learning for propensity score estimation.
result Valid inference for heterogeneous treatment effects with bias correction procedures.
Estimates impulse response functions using machine learning in time series data.
problem Estimating causal effects of discrete treatments over time with flexible models.
method Double/debiased machine learning for nonparametric time series data.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for impulse response functions.
New method improves robustness of double robust estimators under complete misspecification.
problem Improper performance of double robust estimators when all nuisance functions are misspecified.
method DR+ACC, an adaptive correction clipping method.
result DR+ACC ensures bounded error and maintains semiparametric efficiency.
Discussing hybrid models in Bayesian networks.
problem Improving accuracy in network modeling.
method Hybrid semiparametric Bayesian approach.
result Enhanced model performance in complex networks.
New method improves treatment effect estimation in adaptive experiments with noncompliance.
problem Estimating average treatment effect in adaptive experiments with binary instrumental variable.
method AMRIV estimator that balances outcome noise and compliance variability.
result AMRIV achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and is robust to noncompliance.
Unified theory for semiparametric data fusion with individual-level data.
problem Handling data fusion problems, especially in settings with diverse data sources and designs.
method Extending a comprehensive theory to handle conditional and marginal distribution alignments, providing universal results for influence functions and efficient influence functions.
result Paves the way for machine-learning debiased, semiparametric efficient estimation.
Paper develops a new estimator for rough volatility parameters.
problem Estimating rough volatility parameters from high-frequency data.
method Develops a semiparametric estimator for H in rough volatility models. result The estimator achieves optimal convergence rate in minimax sense.
New estimator optimizes black-box model errors in semiparametric estimation.
problem How nuisance estimation errors affect low-dimensional target parameters in semiparametric models.
method Proposed a new estimator achieving a sharper rate of convergence.
result The first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated.
We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copul…
Kernelized bandit algorithm tackles adaptive contextual bandits with single-index models.
problem Adaptive contextual bandits with single-index models and unknown link functions.
method Kernelized ε-greedy algorithm combining Stein-based index estimation and kernel ridge regression for reward functions.
result Unified framework for simultaneous learning and inference in single-index contextual bandits.
New method for estimating value of optimal policies in uncertain scenarios.
problem Inference for optimal policies when they are non-unique or nearly deterministic.
method Semiparametric efficiency bound, uniformly weighted estimator, NSAVE method.
result Proposes NSAVE method for robust inference in uncertain optimal policies.