A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A simple model economy with locally interacting producers and consumers is introduced. When driven by extremal dynamics, the model self-organizes {\em not} to an attractor state, but to an asymptote, on which the economy has a constant rate of deflation, is critical, and exhibits avalanches of activity with power-law d…
This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.
A methodology is developed to identify, as units of study, each decrease in the value of a stock from a given maximum price level. A critical level in the amount of price declines is found to separate a segment operating under a random walk from a segment operating under a power law. This level is interpreted as a poin…
We present a simple order book mechanism that regulates an artificial financial market with self-organized criticality dynamics and fat tails of returns distribution. The model shows the role played by individual imitation in determining trading decisions, while fruitfully replicates typical aggregate market behavior a…
The Stock Market is a complex self-interacting system, characterized by an intermittent behaviour. Periods of high activity alternate with periods of relative calm. In the present work we investigate empirically about the possibility that the market is in a self-organized critical state (SOC). A wavelet transform metho…
We introduce a minimal Agent Based Model with two classes of agents, fundamentalists (stabilizing) and chartists (destabilizing) and we focus on the essential features which can generate the stylized facts. This leads to a detailed understanding of the origin of fat tails and volatility clustering and we propose a mech…
We explore a simple lattice field model intended to describe statistical properties of high frequency financial markets. The model is relevant in the cross-disciplinary area of econophysics. Its signature feature is the emergence of a self-organized critical state. This implies scale invariance of the model, without tu…
The question we address here is of whether phenomena of collective bankruptcies are related to self-organized criticality. In order to answer it we propose a simple model of banking networks based on the random directed percolation. We study effects of one bank failure on the nucleation of contagion phase in a financia…
Study shows flash crashes in finance are self-organized criticality events.
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
Self-organized criticality has been claimed to play an important role in many natural and social systems. In the present work we empirically investigate the relevance of this theory to stock-market dynamics. Avalanches in stock-market indices are identified using a multi-scale wavelet-filtering analysis designed to rem…
We study the collective behavior of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely, consumption) and selling (namely, pro…
We have numerically simulated the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving two-body collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce (quenched) saving propensity of the agents, distributed widely between the agents ($0 \le…
Proposes SOMDAGMM for more accurate network intrusion detection.
We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative…
We present a detailed numerical analysis of the modified version of a conservative self-organized extremal model introduced by Pianegonda et. al. for the distribution of wealth of the people in a society. Here the trading process has been modified by the stochastic bipartite trading rule. More specifically in a trade o…
We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model …
We extend our studies of a quantum field model defined on a lattice having the dilation group as a local gauge symmetry. The model is relevant in the cross-disciplinary area of econophysics. A corresponding proposal by Ilinski aimed at gauge modeling in non-equilibrium pricing is realized as a numerical simulation of t…
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
In today's economy, selling a new zero-marginal cost product is a real challenge, as it is difficult to determine a product's "correct" sales price based on its profit and dissemination. As an example, think of the price of a new app or video game. New sales mechanisms for selling this type of product need to be design…
We introduce a simple model for addressing the controversy in the study of financial systems, sometimes taken as brownian-like processes and other as critical systems with fluctuations of arbitrary magnitude. The model considers a collection of economical agents which establish trade connections among them according to…
We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dy- namics, by considering two assets with variable f…
Physically-based overland flow models are computationally demanding, hindering their use for real-time applications. Therefore, the development of fast (and reasonably accurate) overland flow models is needed if they are to be used to support flood mitigation decision making. In this study, we investigate the potential…
We present a simplified model for the exploitation of finite resources by interacting agents, where each agent receives a random fraction of the available resources. An extremal dynamics ensures that the poorest agent has a chance to change its economic welfare. After a long transient, the system self-organizes into a …
New modeling approach for self-organizing complex systems.
Kernel networks' stability edge linked to Fisher Information singularity.
We present a detailed analysis of the self-organization phenomenon in which the stylized facts originate from finite size effects with respect to the number of agents considered and disappear in the limit of an infinite population. By introducing the possibility that agents can enter or leave the market depending on th…
In self-organizing networks, topology and dynamics coevolve in a continuous feedback, without exogenous driving. The World Trade Network (WTN) is one of the few empirically well documented examples of self-organizing networks: its topology strongly depends on the GDP of world countries, which in turn depends on the str…
Modeling financial markets with sandpile model to understand price volatility and arbitrage constraints.
This study examine the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) Th…
Unified view of SOMs and SNE from a common framework.
New trading model uses self-organization for real-world complexity.
The self-organizing methods were used for the investigation of financial market. As an example we consider data time-series of Dow Jones index for the years 2002-2003 (R. Mantegna, cond-mat/9802256). In order to reveal new structures in stock market behavior of the companies drawing up Dow Jones index we apply SOM (Sel…
SORSCNs improve nonstationary data modeling by self-organizing and adjusting network parameters.
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single…
We present an overview of some representative Agent-Based Models in Economics. We discuss why and how agent-based models represent an important step in order to explain the dynamics and the statistical properties of financial markets beyond the Classical Theory of Economics. We perform a schematic analysis of several m…
A stochastic theory for the toppling activity in sandpile models is developed, based on a simple mean-field assumption about the toppling process. The theory describes the process as an anti-persistent Gaussian walk, where the diffusion coefficient is proportional to the activity. It is formulated as a generalization o…
We analyze a conservative market model for the competition among economic agents in a close society. A minimum dynamics ensures that the poorest agent has a chance to improve its economic welfare. After a transient, the system self-organizes into a critical state where the wealth distribution have a minimum threshold, …
A self-organizing map (SOM) is a type of competitive artificial neural network, which projects the high-dimensional input space of the training samples into a low-dimensional space with the topology relations preserved. This makes SOMs supportive of organizing and visualizing complex data sets and have been pervasively…
New algorithm predicts spatio-temporal events with improved accuracy.
Bayesian method improves SOM training for dynamic data.
Paper improves SOMs for non-Euclidean data modeling.
An interesting toy model has recently been proposed on Schumpeterian economic dynamics by Thurner {\it et al.} following the idea of economist Joseph Schumpeter. Punctuated equilibrium dynamics is shown to emerge from this model and some detail analyses of the time series indicate SOC kind of behaviours. The focus in t…
Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) are popular unsupervised artificial neural network used to reduce dimensions and visualize data. Visual interpretation from Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) has been limited due to grid approach of data representation, which makes inter-scenario analysis impossible. The paper proposes a new way to …
A new method reduces memory requirements for sorting high-dimensional data.
torchsom simplifies SOMs in PyTorch with GPU acceleration and scikit-learn API.
We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in normal times. The co-movement of stock returns also increases in panic times. W…
This work links SOMs and GMMs, providing a mathematical basis for their use.