The paper models SaaS products as insurance, offering new pricing tools.
problem Modeling capped-usage SaaS products with insurance principles.
method Frequency-severity decomposition, premium calculation, Monte Carlo simulations.
result SaaS pricing can be analyzed using insurance actuarial methods.
Paper introduces DOO models to outperform SAA out-of-sample.
problem Outperforming SAA in out-of-sample performance.
method Introduces DOO models that consider both worst-case and best-case scenarios.
result DOO models can always outperform SAA out-of-sample.
This study analyzes decision-making in diverse environments where past data may not predict future outcomes.
problem How to make decisions when past data is not indicative of future outcomes due to unobserved confounders.
method Developed a framework to analyze and bound the performance of data-driven policies in heterogeneous environments.
result Established a method to upper bound the asymptotic worst-case regret of policies and analyzed the performance of Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
We introduce the SaaS Algorithm for semi-supervised learning, which uses learning speed during stochastic gradient descent in a deep neural network to measure the quality of an iterative estimate of the posterior probability of unknown labels. Training speed in supervised learning correlates strongly with the percentag…
The paper studies the convergence of SAA for systemic risk measures.
problem Theoretical convergence of SAA for set-valued systemic risk measures.
method General theory and specific case study with mixed-integer programming formulations.
result Theoretical convergence results for SAA under Wijsman and Hausdorff topologies.
New research shows SAA can outperform SA for Wasserstein barycenters.
problem Optimizing Wasserstein barycenters with entropy regularization.
method Comparison of Stochastic Approximation (SA) and Sample Average Approximation (SAA) for large-scale problems.
result SAA can be more efficient than SA for Wasserstein barycenters, especially in large-scale settings.
We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to price opt…
Study integrates machine learning with SAA for optimizing decisions based on uncertain parameters and covariates.
problem Optimizing decisions under uncertain parameters and covariates.
method Data-driven frameworks integrating machine learning prediction models within SAA for scenario generation.
result Consistent and asymptotically optimal solutions under certain conditions, with finite sample guarantees.
Paper uses RNN to predict SaaS user lifetime value.
problem Predicting user lifetime value in SaaS applications.
method Recurrent Neural Network with multi-cell architecture, accounting for cohort, age-in-system, and contemporaneous information.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy compared to existing models.
Although we have tons of machine learning tools to analyze data, most of them require users have some programming backgrounds. Here we introduce a SaaS application which allows users analyze their data without any coding and even without any knowledge of machine learning. Users can upload, train, predict and download t…
SAA method solves insurance portfolio optimization with CVaR constraints.
problem Optimal allocation under CVaR constraint in insurance.
method Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method applied to CVaR constrained portfolio optimization.
result Convergence of SAA method and solution uniqueness proved under mild assumptions.
Novel approach simplifies VI problems with faster performance.
problem Black-box VI optimization problems.
method Sample Average Approximation (SAA) combined with quasi-Newton methods and line search.
result Achieves faster performance than existing methods.
Adaptive SAA solves large-scale stochastic linear programs efficiently.
problem Solving large-scale two-stage stochastic linear programs.
method Iterative algorithm with adaptive sample size and warm starts.
result The algorithm converges to the true solution set with a probabilistic guarantee.
New insights into bias-variance tradeoff for data-driven optimization under local misspecification.
problem Understanding the relative performance of SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification.
method Developed a local misspecification perspective using contiguity theory in statistics.
result Explicit expressions for decision bias and geometric understanding of variance.
The study optimizes free trial lengths to boost subscriptions and consumer loyalty.
problem Optimizing free trial lengths to maximize customer acquisition and retention.
method A large-scale field experiment with personalized policy design and evaluation.
result Personalized free trial policies outperform uniform trial lengths.
The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.
problem Efficiently solving optimization problems with biased Monte Carlo estimators.
method Introduces Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) within Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
result Establishes uniform convergence and sample complexity for MLMC in SAA.
New optimization method corrects data-driven optimizer's curse.
problem Over-optimistic evaluation in data-driven optimization.
method Smoothed f-Divergence Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). result Statistical bound on out-of-sample performance nearly tightest.
We develop a theory for valuing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. We apply our method to value life annuities. One result of…
In this paper, we study a class of stochastic optimization problems, referred to as the \emph{Conditional Stochastic Optimization} (CSO), in the form of $\min_{x \in \mathcal{X}} \EE_ξf_ξ\Big({\EE_{η|ξ}[g_η(x,ξ)]}\Big)$, which finds a wide spectrum of applications including portfolio selection, reinforcement learning, …
A key factor in developing high performing machine learning models is the availability of sufficiently large datasets. This work is motivated by applications arising in Software as a Service (SaaS) companies where there exist numerous similar yet disjoint datasets from multiple client companies. To overcome the challen…
DADVI improves ADVI by using deterministic approximation for faster, more accurate posterior estimation.
problem Intractable posterior uncertainty estimates and lack of clear convergence criteria in ADVI.
method Replaces stochastic MFVB objective with deterministic Monte Carlo approximation (SAA) and uses second-order optimization.
result DADVI provides faster and more accurate posterior estimates with default settings.
The paper analyzes risk estimation methods and derives bounds for OCE risk.
problem Estimating the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk from samples.
method Derives mean-squared error and concentration bounds for SAA of OCE, and analyzes an efficient stochastic approximation-based estimator.
result Finite sample bounds and mis-identification probability bounds for the efficient estimator.
Personalizes query completion in digital commerce with image-based vectors.
problem High bounce rate and low recurring users in query completion.
method Injects dense vectors from product images into a noisy channel model.
result Image-based personalization improves query completion and user experience.
RL techniques improve radar spectrum sharing in crowded conditions.
problem Optimizing radar performance in congested spectrum environments.
method Comparison of RL algorithms including policy iteration and Deep RL.
result RL techniques outperform traditional SAA methods in radar spectrum sharing.
Optimizes shortfall risk using gradient-based methods.
problem Optimizing utility-based shortfall risk measures.
method Gradient-based stochastic optimization, non-asymptotic bounds derivation.
result Non-asymptotic convergence rate for optimizing UBSR.
We propose a novel supervised learning method to optimize the kernel in the maximum mean discrepancy generative adversarial networks (MMD GANs), and the kernel support vector machines (SVMs). Specifically, we characterize a distributionally robust optimization problem to compute a good distribution for the random featu…
Optimizes asset allocation with illiquid assets using MPC.
problem Strategic asset allocation with illiquid alternative asset classes.
method Formulates illiquid dynamics as a random linear system and proposes a convex optimization based MPC policy.
result Performance close to a fully liquid scenario, despite time delay and uncertainty.
The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.
problem Improving the accuracy of long-term investment simulations.
method Developed a multivariate process incorporating recent financial models and probabilistic forecasts.
result Increased accuracy in predicting portfolio values over decades.
New findings show ETO outperforms IEO in well-specified models with sufficient data.
problem Comparing estimate-then-optimize (ETO) and integrated-estimation-optimization (IEO) methods in stochastic optimization.
method Analyzes the performance of ETO and IEO in well-specified and misspecified models using stochastic dominance.
result Simple ETO outperforms IEO asymptotically in well-specified models with sufficient data.
This paper tackles unpaired data in multi-view learning, proposing a new framework and models.
problem Handling unpaired data in multi-view learning, which is more common than paired data.
method Generalized uncorrelated multi-view subspace learning framework with successive alternating approximation (SAA) method.
result Proposed models perform competitively or better than baselines in multi-view feature extraction and multi-modality classification.
The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.
problem Hidden dependence of asset pricing models on price and payoff autocorrelations.
method Obtained approximations of the basic pricing equation describing various parameters.
result Valid results for other pricing models like ICAPM and APM.
Paper introduces benchmark-neutral pricing for long-term contracts.
problem High prices of long-term contracts under risk-neutral pricing.
method Uses growth optimal portfolio as numeraire and new pricing measure.
result Identifies minimal possible prices for contingent claims.
Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.
problem Nature of price formation in financial markets and bid-ask spread dynamics.
method Developed a quantum coupled-wave theory using a 2x2 price operator with eigenvalues representing bid and ask prices.
result The theory adequately models bid-ask spread and directional price movement due to quantum-chaotic interaction.
New pricing algorithm learns demand curves and optimizes prices in dynamic markets.
problem Dynamic pricing in markets with incomplete demand information and shifting conditions.
method Actor-Critic Information-Directed Pricing (ACIDP) using IDS algorithms and auditing procedures.
result ACIDP outperforms UCB and TS in market environment shifts.
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear case of this pricin…
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem of choosing a price when implementing their strategies. In this work, we propose …
Study utility indifference pricing in a Bachelier model with small linear price impact.
problem Utility indifference pricing in a model with linear price impact.
method Analyzes the Bachelier model with exponential utility indifference prices for vanilla European options.
result Computes the scaling limit of utility indifference prices for a vanishing price impact inversely proportional to risk aversion.
A pricing principle is introduced for non-attainable claims in incomplete markets.
problem Pricing non-attainable contingent claims in incomplete markets.
method Distorted Radon-Nikodym derivative and Tsallis relative entropy over a family of equivalent martingale measures.
result The pricing principle is closely related to backward stochastic differential equations and is arbitrage-free and time-consistent.
Price without transaction makes no sense. Trading volume authenticates its corresponding price, so there exist mutual information and correlation between price and trading volume. We are curious about fractal features of this correlation and need to know how structures in different scales translate information. To expl…
Revisits behavioral finance option pricing model to align with rational asset pricing theory.
problem Inconsistency between behavioral finance and rational asset pricing models in option pricing.
method Introduces arbitrage transaction costs to modify the behavioral finance option pricing formula.
result Modifies behavioral finance option pricing formula to be consistent with rational asset pricing theory.
The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.
problem Discontinuity in option pricing for markets with informed traders.
method New models for option pricing in complete markets considering informed traders' information on stock price direction and return mean.
result The discontinuity puzzle in option pricing is resolved using continuous diffusion price processes.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Research predicts XRP price anomalies using graph topologies.
problem Forecasting extreme price movements in XRP cryptoasset.
method Analyzed topological features of XRP transaction graphs.
result Topological features indicate extreme price surges.
Path integral method calculates barrier option prices.
problem Barrier option pricing in finance.
method Path integral method applied to trapezoid and square potential barriers.
result Analytical expressions for option pricing derived.
In this paper we apply active learning algorithms for dynamic pricing in a prominent e-commerce website. Dynamic pricing involves changing the price of items on a regular basis, and uses the feedback from the pricing decisions to update prices of the items. Most popular approaches to dynamic pricing use a passive learn…
A statistical decision problem is hidden in the core of option pricing. A simple form for the price C of a European call option is obtained via the minimum Bayes risk, R_B, of a 2-parameter estimation problem, thus justifying calling C Bayes (B-)price. The result provides new insight in option pricing, among others obt…
The paper addresses pricing interest rate derivatives in markets with volatility uncertainty.
problem Pricing interest rate derivatives under uncertainty about volatility.
method Modeling volatility uncertainty with G-Brownian motion and defining forward sublinear expectation.
result Developed robust pricing formulas for interest rate derivatives.
The paper modifies asset pricing models using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
problem Improving asset pricing models to better reflect market dynamics.
method Derives new pricing equations using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
result New expressions for asset prices and volatilities derived from market data.