arXiv research

In this article, we show how to calibrate the widely-used SVI parameterization of the implied volatility surface in such a way as to guarantee the absence of static arbitrage. In particular, we exhibit a large class of arbitrage-free SVI volatility surfaces with a simple closed-form representation. We demonstrate the h…

In this short note, we prove by an appropriate change of variables that the SVI implied volatility parameterization presented in Gatheral's book and the large-time asymptotic of the Heston implied volatility agree algebraically, thus confirming a conjecture from Gatheral as well as providing a simpler expression for th…

No-arbitrage constraints on implied variance slope are weak, leading to almost guaranteed arbitrage in many cases.

Posterior inference in directed graphical models is commonly done using a probabilistic encoder (a.k.a inference model) conditioned on the input. Often this inference model is trained jointly with the probabilistic decoder (a.k.a generator model). If probabilistic encoder encounters complexities during training (e.g. s…

We simplify SVI volatility smile constraints for three sub-SVIs without numerical methods.

Developed an efficient iterative algorithm for SVI model.

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) employs stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. Since SVI is at its core a stochastic gradient-based algorithm, horizontal parallelism can be harnessed to allow larger scale inference. We propose a lock-free parallel implementation for SVI which a…

A new method improves SVI for high-dimensional, poorly-conditioned distributions.

Characterizes no Butterfly arbitrage in SVI model parameters.

Improved SVI with adjustable annealing for better optimization.

The stochastic variational inference (SVI) paradigm, which combines variational inference, natural gradients, and stochastic updates, was recently proposed for large-scale data analysis in conjugate Bayesian models and demonstrated to be effective in several problems. This paper studies a family of Bayesian latent vari…

SVI and GP surrogates improve calibration of ABMs in epidemiology.

Paper proposes a second-order method for faster SVI convergence.

We present SDA-Bayes, a framework for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous computation of a Bayesian posterior. The framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation batch primitive. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes (VB) …

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) lets us scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. It uses stochastic optimization to fit a variational distribution, following easy-to-compute noisy natural gradients. As with most traditional stochastic optimization methods, SVI takes precautions to use unbiased stochastic g…

Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient…

Owing to the recent advances in "Big Data" modeling and prediction tasks, variational Bayesian estimation has gained popularity due to their ability to provide exact solutions to approximate posteriors. One key technique for approximate inference is stochastic variational inference (SVI). SVI poses variational inferenc…

In this article we propose a generalisation of the recent work of Gatheral and Jacquier on explicit arbitrage-free parameterisations of implied volatility surfaces. We also discuss extensively the notion of arbitrage freeness and Roger Lee's moment formula using the recent analysis by Roper. We further exhibit an arbit…

The recognition network in deep latent variable models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) relies on amortized inference for efficient posterior approximation that can scale up to large datasets. However, this technique has also been demonstrated to select suboptimal variational parameters, often resulting in consi…

CoSMIC extends flow-based SVI to transdimensional problems.

Stochastic variational inference (SVI), the state-of-the-art algorithm for scaling variational inference to large-datasets, is inherently serial. Moreover, it requires the parameters to fit in the memory of a single processor; this is problematic when the number of parameters is in billions. In this paper, we propose e…

Proposes SVI for covariate-shift generalization with sparse variable independence.

Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or exchangeable data settings. We develop an SVI algorithm to learn the parameters of hi…

Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameter…

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the context of Bayesian topic models, particularly latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Deri…

PFP-BNNs offer a fast, deterministic approach to Bayesian neural networks.

Scalable model checking for stochastic systems using Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks.

Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.

Two new algorithms solve privacy-constrained SVI and SSP problems.

Study on private algorithms for saddle point and variational inequalities, improving efficiency and applicability.

We study here the large-time behaviour of all continuous affine stochastic volatility models (in the sense of Keller-Ressel) and deduce a closed-form formula for the large-maturity implied volatility smile. Based on refinements of the Gartner-Ellis theorem on the real line, our proof reveals pathological behaviours of …

Fast ML framework for derivative valuation from volatility surfaces.

We consider a stochastic volatility model where the moment generating function of the logarithmic price is finite only on part of the real line. Using a new Tauberian result obtained in [1] and [2], we show that the knowledge of the moment generating function near its critical moment gives a sharp asymptotic expansion …

Symbolic regression finds simple formulas for implied volatility.

Extends saddle-point method for large-time volatility smiles.

We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the higher-order terms highly depends on the parameters, and different powers of the m…

Enhanced SABR model captures complex volatility smiles in Chinese financial options.

The paper introduces various canonical parameterizations for 2D-curved shapes.

There are currently two parameterizations used to derive fixed kernels corresponding to infinite width neural networks, the NTK (Neural Tangent Kernel) parameterization and the naive standard parameterization. However, the extrapolation of both of these parameterizations to infinite width is problematic. The standard p…

The space of call price functions has a natural noncommutative semigroup structure with an involution. A basic example is the Black--Scholes call price surface, from which an interesting inequality for Black--Scholes implied volatility is derived. The binary operation is compatible with the convex order, and therefore …

New parameterization for $(1,1)$-knots simplifies their study.

Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant str…

The current paper discusses some new results about conformal polynomic surface parameterizations. A new theorem is proved: Given a conformal polynomic surface parameterization of any degree it must be harmonic on each component. As a first geometrical application, every surface that admits a conformal polynomic paramet…

Polynomially parameterizes knots and spheres, proving analogous results.

Conformal surface parameterization is useful in graphics, imaging and visualization, with applications to texture mapping, atlas construction, registration, remeshing and so on. With the increasing capability in scanning and storing data, dense 3D surface meshes are common nowadays. While meshes with higher resolution …

Two novel algorithms for conformal parameterization of multiply-connected surfaces.

The paper analyzes how over-parameterization affects GD convergence in matrix sensing problems.