To restore the historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) better, it is important to construct a good calibration model for the associated proxies. In this paper, we introduce a new model for alkenone () based on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (GP) regression method. Our nonparametric app…
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We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW) and sea surface temperatures (SST) taken over the equatorial band of the Pacific O…
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed for semi-supervised node classification on graphs where only a subset of nodes have class labels. However, under extreme cases when very few labels are available (e.g., 1 labeled node per class), GNNs suffer from severe performance degradation. Specifically, we observe that exi…
The study forecasts water quality from satellite data using machine learning.
problem Predicting future water quality from satellite data for coastal regions.
method Decomposed time series into components and used machine learning models (SARIMA, regression, neural network).
result Regression and neural network models are best at predicting Chl-a, SARIMA model best at FLH and SST.
This article presents a stochastic framework to quantify the biometric risk of an insurance portfolio in solvency regimes such as Solvency II or the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). The main difficulty in this context constitutes in the proper representation of long term risks in the profit-loss distribution over a one year …
Deep learning detects sleep state fluctuations in neonates from single EEG channel.
problem Monitoring sleep state fluctuations in neonatal intensive care units.
method Deep learning-based algorithm trained on 53 EEG recordings, validated on 30 polysomnography recordings.
result High accuracy (90%) in detecting quiet sleep states from single EEG channel, generalizing well to external dataset.
Exact pairwise ranking is achievable but not possible under noisy comparisons.
problem Recovering the exact rank of items from noisy pairwise comparisons.
method Information-theoretic upper and lower bounds using the SST model and combinatorial arguments.
result Sharp information-theoretic bounds match in the parametric limit and outperform previous methods.
A Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Sea Surface Temperature in the Great Barrier Reef Regionphysics.ao-ph
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
In this paper, a frequency coefficient based on the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon (SST) poverty index notion is proposed. The clustering SST index can be used as the method for determination of the connection between similar neighbor sub-clusters. Consequently, connections can reveal existence of natural homogeneous. Through esti…
Study on tracking preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.
problem Tracking significant preference shifts in dueling bandits problems.
method Analysis of dueling bandits with distribution shifts, focusing on significant shifts (Suk and Kpotufe, 2022).
result Design of adaptive algorithms with dynamic regret for certain preference distribution classes.
This study predicts parking availability using multi-source data and a self-supervised learning enhanced transformer.
problem Accurate parking availability prediction to support urban planning and management.
method Proposes SST-iTransformer, a self-supervised learning enhanced spatio-temporal inverted transformer, integrating multi-source data.
result SST-iTransformer achieves state-of-the-art performance in parking availability prediction.
The driving force behind the recent success of LSTMs has been their ability to learn complex and non-linear relationships. Consequently, our inability to describe these relationships has led to LSTMs being characterized as black boxes. To this end, we introduce contextual decomposition (CD), an interpretation algorithm…
Pairwise comparison data arises in many domains, including tournament rankings, web search, and preference elicitation. Given noisy comparisons of a fixed subset of pairs of items, we study the problem of estimating the underlying comparison probabilities under the assumption of strong stochastic transitivity (SST). We…
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
problem Systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models.
method Hybrid-Lift framework combining Hierarchical LSTM networks and Mean-Bias Correction.
result Hybrid-Lift outperforms Li-Lee framework by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany.
One of the current challenges in machine learning is how to deal with data coming at increasing rates in data streams. New predictive learning strategies are needed to cope with the high throughput data and concept drift. One of the data stream mining tasks where new learning strategies are needed is multi-target regre…
The paper tackles optimal level set estimation in crowdsourcing and tournaments.
problem Deciphering small entries in a partially observed matrix of expert correctness.
method Constructs an efficient polynomial-time algorithm for recovering level sets up to a precision.
result The algorithm is minimax optimal for the classification problem, contrasting with existing literature.
Framework for realistic insurance liability valuation.
problem Economic realism in insurance liability valuation.
method Replication approach of no-arbitrage theory, considering capital and fulfillment conditions.
result Identifies conditions for market price recovery and extends production for insolvency.
In this paper, we propose Dynamic Self-Attention (DSA), a new self-attention mechanism for sentence embedding. We design DSA by modifying dynamic routing in capsule network (Sabouretal.,2017) for natural language processing. DSA attends to informative words with a dynamic weight vector. We achieve new state-of-the-art …
Locally-adapted convolution-based super-resolution of irregularly-sampled ocean remote sensing datastat.ML
Super-resolution is a classical problem in image processing, with numerous applications to remote sensing image enhancement. Here, we address the super-resolution of irregularly-sampled remote sensing images. Using an optimal interpolation as the low-resolution reconstruction, we explore locally-adapted multimodal conv…
Information-theoretic quantities, such as entropy, are used to quantify the amount of information a given variable provides. Entropies can be used together to compute the mutual information, which quantifies the amount of information two variables share. However, accurately estimating these quantities from data is extr…
Charmer improves character-level adversarial attacks for language models.
problem Efficiency and effectiveness of character-level adversarial attacks for language models.
method Query-based adversarial attack method that maintains semantic similarity.
result Charmer achieves high attack success rate and similar adversarial examples.
Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal resolution while in situ autonomous probes supply high vertical resolution, but horiz…
Motivated by applications in recommender systems, web search, social choice and crowdsourcing, we consider the problem of identifying the set of top items from noisy pairwise comparisons. In our setting, we are non-actively given pairwise comparisons between each pair of items, where each comparison has noi…
Parsimonious Dynamic Mode Decomposition selects sparse modes robustly.
problem Manual tuning of sparsity parameters in traditional DMD.
method Time-delay embedding and Orthogonal Matching Pursuit.
result Autonomously determines optimally sparse subset of modes.
The paper assesses text classification robustness through maximal safe radius computation.
problem Vulnerability of neural network models to small input modifications.
method Maximal safe radius computation, Monte Carlo Tree Search, syntactic filtering, linear bounding techniques.
result Approximation methods for computing upper and lower bounds of maximal safe radius.
New algorithm B++&C improves hierarchical clustering on large deep embedding datasets.
problem Scaling up hierarchical clustering to massive datasets of deep embeddings.
method Proposes B++&C algorithm for practical hierarchical clustering, introduces B2SAT&C for theoretical approximation.
result Achieves 5%/20% improvement on MW/CKMM objectives compared to classic methods.
Fixed Inducing Points Online Bayesian Calibration for Computer Models with an Application to a Scale-Resolving CFD Simulationphysics.comp-ph
Proposes FIPO-BC for efficient online calibration of complex models.
problem Efficiently calibrating computationally expensive models with large datasets.
method Fixed inducing points online Bayesian calibration (FIPO-BC) algorithm.
result FIPO-BC is at least ten times faster than standard methods and enables online updates.
We study methods for aggregating pairwise comparison data in order to estimate outcome probabilities for future comparisons among a collection of n items. Working within a flexible framework that imposes only a form of strong stochastic transitivity (SST), we introduce an adaptivity index defined by the indifference se…
New margin-based regularization and selective sampling improve deep neural network performance.
problem Improving deep neural network performance on various classification tasks.
method Multi-margin regularization (MMR) and minimal margin score (MMS) for selective sampling.
result Improved results on multiple classification tasks across domains.
The paper designs tests for comparing ranked preference data and finds significant differences.
problem Comparing pairwise comparison and ranking data in various applications.
method Developed two-sample tests for pairwise comparison and ranking data, proving upper and lower bounds.
result Upper and lower bounds show tightness of the proposed tests, and significant differences in preferences were found.
This paper is concerned with the inverse problem of recovering the unknown signal components, along with extraction of their instantaneous frequencies (IFs), governed by the adaptive harmonic model (AHM), from discrete (and possibly non-uniform) samples of the blind-source composite signal. None of the existing decompo…
The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.
problem Modeling aggregate claim amount with frequency-severity and joint dependencies.
method Developed three types of BCART models: frequency-severity, sequential, and joint models. Used various distributions for claim severity data.
result Weibull distribution outperforms gamma and lognormal for right-skewed, heavy-tailed claim severity data.
The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.
problem Interpreting complex machine learning models.
method Using model-based trees to partition feature space and create interpretable models.
result Model-based trees generate optimal surrogate models that balance interpretability and performance.
Gauge Flow Modelscs.LG
Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.
problem Improving generative model performance.
method Integrates a learnable Gauge Field into Flow ODEs.
result Gauge Flow Models outperform traditional Flow Models in Flow Matching experiments.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
problem Model predictions may not be robust under model extensions, limiting their applicability.
method The study uses causal ordering to assess robustness of qualitative model predictions and characterizes model extensions that preserve predictions.
result Conditions and techniques are provided to assess robustness of model predictions under model extensions.
Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.
problem Ensemble pre-trained and lightly-finetuned foundation models for improved classification performance.
method Introduces trainable linear classifiers and computationally cheaper model averaging scheme (OMA).
result Ensembled models can better predict on various datasets.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.
problem Model risk in credit portfolio models.
method Demonstrates comprehensive yet easy-to-implement approach to uncertainty in model parameters.
result Comprehensive method to deal with model uncertainties.
The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.
problem Validating stock return models and predicting stock returns.
method Used Fama-French three-factor, four-factor, and five-factor models; also used LSTM model.
result Fama-French five-factor model shows better validity for stock returns.
Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.
problem Challenges in interpreting additive models, particularly neural additive models.
method Review of generalized additive models and discussion of nonidentifiability.
result Challenges in claiming interpretability or suitability for safety-critical applications of additive models.
Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.
problem Real-time diagnosis of complex systems.
method Combines machine learning and physics-based models to create reduced-order models.
result Generated models are two orders of magnitude simpler, improving efficiency.
CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of rich, multimodal models for ranking data.
method Contextual Repeated Selection (CRS) model for multimodal ranking data.
result CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods in various ranking contexts.
Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.
problem Understanding the relationship between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models.
method Exploring the mathematical correspondence between sigma models and Gross-Neveu models, including their geometric and trigonometric/elliptic deformations.
result Sigma models are mathematically equivalent to Gross-Neveu models under certain conditions.
Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…
Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…
Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.
problem Stealing functionality of private ML data by hiding models in a carrier model.
method Parameter sharing approach exploiting the learning capacity of the carrier model.
result Hides a 26x larger secret model or 8 secret models in the carrier model.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
This work develops scalable model selection methods with fast update and selection.
problem Efficient model selection for large pools of candidate models.
method Isolated model embedding, which supports asymptotically fast update and selection.
result Standardized Embedder achieves competitive model selection performances.