A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study non-local isoperimetric energies on spheres using a Riemannian autocorrelation function.
Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.
Financial market dynamics is rigorously studied via the exact generalized Langevin equation. Assuming market Brownian self-similarity, the market return rate memory and autocorrelation functions are derived, which exhibit an oscillatory-decaying behavior with a long-time tail, similar to empirical observations. Individ…
We describe the impact of the intra-day activity pattern on the autocorrelation function estimator. We obtain an exact formula relating estimators of the autocorrelation functions of non-stationary process to its stationary counterpart. Hence, we proved that the day seasonality of inter-transaction times extends the me…
Study of autocorrelation times in neural MCMC simulations for the 2D Ising model.
Study GLS estimator properties in multivariate regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors.
We develop a framework especially suited to the autocorrelation properties observed in financial times series, by borrowing from the physical picture of turbulence. The success of our approach as applied to high frequency foreign exchange data is demonstrated by the overlap of the curves in Figure (1), since we are abl…
In this manuscript we analyse the leading statistical properties of fluctuations of (log) 3-month US Treasury bill quotation in the secondary market, namely: probability density function, autocorrelation, absolute values autocorrelation, and absolute values persistency. We verify that this financial instrument, in spit…
As deep Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) frameworks become more widely used for modeling biomolecular simulation data, we emphasize the capability of the VAE architecture to concurrently maximize the timescale of the latent space while inferring a reduced coordinate, which assists in finding slow processes as according t…
In this paper we propose new algorithm to reduce autocorrelation in Markov chain Monte-Carlo algorithms for euclidean field theories on the lattice. Our proposing algorithm is the Hybrid Monte-Carlo algorithm (HMC) with restricted Boltzmann machine. We examine the validity of the algorithm by employing the phi-fourth t…
The paper examines how market trade values and volumes affect price autocorrelation.
This paper speeds up Gaussian process regression for autocorrelated data.
This paper reviews deep time-series forecasting focusing on autocorrelation modeling.
The paper uncovers the impact of price and payoff autocorrelations in multi-period asset pricing models.
FreDF improves forecasting by learning in the frequency domain.
This paper examines autocorrelation in major crypto markets, finding persistent correlations on short time frames.
Proposes adjusting neural network errors for time series forecasting.
We analyze the time series of the power loads of the 35 separated countries publicly sharing hourly data through ENTSO-E platform for more than 5 years. We apply the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis for the demonstration of the multifractal nature, autocorrelation and the distribution function fundamentals. …
The mean-field variant of the model of limit order driven market introduced recently by Maslov is formulated and solved. The agents do not have any strategies and the memory of the system is kept within the order book. We show that he evolution of the order book is governed by a matrix multiplicative process. The resul…
Novel method discovers causal relations in time series data, even with autocorrelation.
The paper calculates optimal trading turnover in terms of asset liquidity and alpha autocorrelation.
We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability density function of market price changes has power law tails. Autocorrelation coeffic…
Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more robust guarantees have been recently proposed. This paper extends these robust portfo…
Estimates price elasticity from autocorrelated time series using causal graphs.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
We exploit a continuous time random walk description of stock prices to obtain a fast and accurate evaluation of their volatility from intraday data. We show that financial markets are usefully described as open physical systems. Indeed we find that the process determining market volatility is not stationary while the …
In this paper, we study the prediction of a circularly symmetric zero-mean stationary Gaussian process from a window of observations consisting of finitely many samples. This is a prevalent problem in a wide range of applications in communication theory and signal processing. Due to stationarity, when the autocorrelati…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
A new RL framework handles autocorrelated actions for better learning and stability.
A new QHR model extends HR model with a quadratic variance function.
New method improves causal discovery in time series with latent confounders.
It is common to subsample Markov chain output to reduce the storage burden. Geyer (1992) shows that discarding out of every observations will not improve statistical efficiency, as quantified through variance in a given computational budget. That observation is often taken to mean that thinning MCMC output ca…
It is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries. In this work, we present an analysis of the variations and autocorrelations of the Mexican Stock Market index (IPC) for different periods of its historical daily data, showing evidence…
Optimizes portfolio with two controls to minimize trades and maintain signal integrity.
New ICA method for sources with mixed spectra.
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
The consideration of spatial effects at a regional level is becoming increasingly frequent and the work of Anselin (1988), among others, has contributed to this. This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker) in the NUTs III economic …
Machine learning models perform better with location coordinates alone, not Moran Eigenvectors.
In the past 20 years, momentum or trend following strategies have become an established part of the investor toolbox. We introduce a new way of analyzing momentum strategies by looking at the information ratio (IR, average return divided by standard deviation). We calculate the theoretical IR of a momentum strategy, an…
The total value of domestic market capitalization of the Mexican Stock Exchange was calculated at 520 billion of dollars by the end of November 2013. To manage this system and make optimum capital investments, its dynamics needs to be predicted. However, randomness within the stock indexes makes forecasting a difficult…
We present a detailed study of the performance of a trading rule that uses moving average of past returns to predict future returns on stock indexes. Our main goal is to link performance and the stochastic process of the traded asset. Our study reports short, medium and long term effects by looking at the Sharpe ratio …
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and …
Study detects unusual trading patterns on crypto exchanges using complexity measures.
Our goal in this paper is to study the market impact in a market in which the order flow is autocorrelated. We build a model which explains qualitatively and quantitatively the empirical facts observed so far concerning market impact. We define different notions of market impact, and show how they lead to the different…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in the conditional product convergence in the parishes' economies of mainland Portugal between 1991 and 2001 (the last year with data available for this spatial disaggregation level). To analyse the data, Moran's I statistic…
In many physical, social or economical phenomena we observe changes of a studied quantity only in discrete, irregularly distributed points in time. The stochastic process used by physicists to describe this kind of variables is the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW). Despite the popularity of this type of stochastic pr…
Analyzed Bitcoin market index volatility changes over two distinct periods using anomalous diffusion and multifractal analysis.
We present an original and novel method based on random matrix approach that enables to distinguish the respective role of temporal autocorrelations inside given time series and cross correlations between various time series. The proposed algorithm is based on properties of Wigner eigenspectrum of random matrices inste…