Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
Simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit (SOMP) and block OMP (BOMP) are two widely used techniques for sparse support recovery in multiple measurement vector (MMV) and block sparse (BS) models respectively. For optimal performance, both SOMP and BOMP require \textit{a priori} knowledge of signal sparsity or noise vari…
Recovering the support of sparse vectors in underdetermined linear regression models, \textit{aka}, compressive sensing is important in many signal processing applications. High SNR consistency (HSC), i.e., the ability of a support recovery technique to correctly identify the support with increasing signal to noise rat…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice, as do applications in which the residuals do not have a Gaussian distribution. …
We conduct mathematical analysis on the effect of batch normalization (BN) on gradient backpropogation in residual network training, which is believed to play a critical role in addressing the gradient vanishing/explosion problem, in this work. By analyzing the mean and variance behavior of the input and the gradient i…
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise, Sigma = (sigma^2)*I. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situa…
Normal distributions ensure asymptotic variance reduction in moment matching Monte Carlo.
problem Asymptotic variance reduction in general integration problems.
method Characterization of conditions for asymptotic variance reduction using normal distributions.
result Asymptotic variance reduction is guaranteed for normal distributions in moment matching Monte Carlo.
The conditional-mean barrier helps diagnose deterministic surrogates missing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic surrogates for complex systems.
method Developed diagnostics to locate the conditional-mean barrier and prove its necessity for distributional objectives.
result Crossing the barrier requires a loss that scores distributions, not point predictions.
Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) seeks a low dimensional representation of a data set in the presence of independent spherical Gaussian noise. The maximum likelihood solution for the model is an eigenvalue problem on the sample covariance matrix. In this paper we consider the situation where the data v…
New method improves matrix completion accuracy, especially in noisy data.
problem Noisy matrix completion in recommendation systems and signal processing.
method Residual Spectral Matching criterion and pseudo-gradient algorithms.
result Improved numerical performance in noisy data environments.
In many learning problems, the training and testing data follow different distributions and a particularly common situation is the \textit{covariate shift}. To correct for sampling biases, most approaches, including the popular kernel mean matching (KMM), focus on estimating the importance weights between the two distr…
Proposes a new algorithm for Sparse Bayesian Learning connected to Stepwise Regression.
problem Sparse Bayesian Learning for probabilistic models.
method Coordinate ascent algorithm (RMP) for SBL, showing connection to Stepwise Regression.
result RMP's noise variance parameter limit connects to Stepwise Regression, with derived guarantees.
SA-PEF improves federated learning efficiency by correcting gradient mismatches.
problem Slow decay of residual error in federated learning under non-IID data.
method Integrates step-ahead correction with partial error feedback.
result Achieves faster convergence and target accuracy compared to standard EF.
A new measure k-variance captures local distributional shape.
problem Summarizing distributional shape with local information.
method Random bipartite matchings and stochastic approximation.
result Easily approximated k-variance measures capture local distributional properties. The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
problem Analyzing risk metrics and entropies for unimodal, symmetric distributions with limited information.
method Develops lower and upper bounds for worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, symmetric distributions with known mean and variance.
result Sharp upper bounds for distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for symmetric distributions.
Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores
problem Identifying test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate
method Membership-score-based conformal selection
result Finite-sample valid null p-values
Polynomial-time algorithm learns causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
problem Learning causal graphs from data without assuming linearity or parametric forms.
method Model-free polynomial-time algorithm with finite-sample guarantees.
result Algorithm achieves linear cost in dimension and samples compared to optimal.
The paper explores a new method for landmark matching using sub-Riemannian geometry and neural networks.
problem Finding a time-dependent vector field to warp points from an initial set to a target set.
method Sub-Riemannian geometry and residual neural networks.
result Demonstrates the importance of regularization in landmark matching.
New method learns PDE solutions from low-fidelity data.
problem Challenges in learning PDE surrogates with scarce data.
method Flow matching in infinite-dimensional space with conditional neural operators.
result Accurately learns PDE solutions across different resolutions and fidelities.
In this paper, we propose a novel perturbation-based exploration method in bandit algorithms with bounded or unbounded rewards, called residual bootstrap exploration (\texttt{ReBoot}). The \texttt{ReBoot} enforces exploration by injecting data-driven randomness through a residual-based perturbation mechanism. This nove…
New estimator improves off-policy evaluation for large action spaces.
problem Conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance in off-policy evaluation for large discrete action spaces.
method Proposes OffCEM estimator based on conjunct effect model (CEM), applying importance weighting only to action clusters and using model-based reward estimation for residual effects.
result Proposed estimator is unbiased under local correctness condition, providing substantial improvements in OPE especially with many actions.
SkMM selects data for finetuning by balancing bias and variance.
problem Balancing bias and variance in high-dimensional finetuning.
method Gradient sketching for bias reduction and moment matching for variance reduction.
result Gradient sketching selects samples efficiently and accurately.
NOTEARS fails to identify true causal relationships from data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from observational data.
method NOTEARS aims to identify a parsimonious DAG from data explaining residual variance.
result NOTEARS is not suitable for identifying true causal relationships.
The paper uses moment matching method for pricing spread options under Lévy models.
problem Pricing spread options under Lévy models with mean-variance mixture.
method Moment matching method applied to Lévy models with mean-variance mixture.
result Obtains semi-closed form formulas for spread option prices.
New bounds show BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, improving parameterization efficiency.
problem Understanding and improving the convergence of black-box variational inference (BBVI).
method Showed BBVI satisfies matching gradient variance bounds corresponding to the ABC condition for smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods.
result Proven BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, with superior dimensional dependence for mean-field parameterization.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
We identify and study two common failure modes for early training in deep ReLU nets. For each we give a rigorous proof of when it occurs and how to avoid it, for fully connected and residual architectures. The first failure mode, exploding/vanishing mean activation length, can be avoided by initializing weights from a …
Deep learning enhances options hedging performance.
problem Improving delta hedging for options using neural networks.
method Learning residuals between hedging function and implied Black-Scholes delta using neural networks.
result Deep learning significantly improves hedging performance, often by more than 100%.
Proposes RaT to mitigate bias in student-teacher estimation.
problem Systematic bias in teacher's predictions propagates to student model.
method Uses teacher to estimate residuals in student's predictions.
result RaT method reduces teacher bias effect and achieves optimal rate.
Improved multivariate conformal prediction by standardizing residuals.
problem Weak conditional coverage in heteroskedastic multivariate settings.
method Natural extension of univariate normalization to multivariate setting, whitening residuals and standardizing local variance.
result Standardized residuals yield asymptotic conditional coverage under certain distributions.
Sparse Principal Component Analysis (sPCA) is a popular matrix factorization approach based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that combines variance maximization and sparsity with the ultimate goal of improving data interpretation. When moving from PCA to sPCA, there are a number of implications that the practition…
Develops a local Fokker--Planck geometric framework for more accurate score estimation.
problem Inaccurate estimation of score function in non-linear, state-dependent drifts.
method Local Fokker--Planck geometric framework, time change to cumulative-variance coordinate, heat-ball mean-value representations, exact high-dimensional sampling.
result Exact local mean-value representations for the score and density, improved accuracy in low-density regions.
Study tight offline learning bounds for linear MDPs using variance information.
problem Understanding statistical limits with linear function representations in offline reinforcement learning.
method Variance-aware pessimistic value iteration (VAPVI) that reweights Bellman residuals based on estimated variances.
result Improved offline learning bounds expressed in terms of system quantities.
Alternative to likelihood-based LSNM model selection, residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
problem Cause-effect inference in location-scale noise models with misspecified noise distributions.
method Residual independence testing as an alternative to likelihood-based model selection.
result Residual independence testing is more robust to noise misspecification.
We provide a new theory for nodewise regression when the residuals from a fitted factor model are used. We apply our results to the analysis of the consistency of Sharpe ratio estimators when there are many assets in a portfolio. We allow for an increasing number of assets as well as time observations of the portfolio.…
In Electricity markets, illiquidity, transaction costs and market price characteristics prevent managers to replicate exactly contracts. A residual risk is always present and the hedging strategy depends on a risk criterion chosen. We present an algorithm to hedge a position for a mean variance criterion taking into ac…
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
We improve optimization for data with varying variance.
problem Optimizing data with varying variance.
method Generalized learning and optimization frameworks for data-driven optimization.
result Asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for stochastic programs.
New methods improve tool-to-tool matching in semiconductor manufacturing.
problem Challenges in obtaining static configuration data and extending methods to heterogeneous equipment.
method Novel TTTM analysis pipelines hypothesizing higher variance and modes for mismatched equipment.
result Best univariate method achieves correlation coefficients >0.95 and >0.5 with variance and modes, respectively.
Improves inference-time alignment for diffusion models without updating weights.
problem Aligning diffusion models without updating weights for high-reward outputs.
method Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC) for variance reduction and efficiency.
result Improves primary alignment objectives on text generation tasks.
Theoretical limits of deep residual networks show consistent covariance structures.
problem Understanding the limits of deep residual networks.
method Analyzing the behavior of deep residual networks with skip connections as width and depth approach infinity.
result Theoretical analysis confirms that the covariance structure remains consistent regardless of the order of width and depth.
Proves curvature of conference graphs and finds local matchings.
problem Proving precise values of curvature in conference graphs.
method Combining parameter relations and combinatorial approach.
result Existence of local perfect matchings in broader classes of graphs.
RL and DTSOC for final quadratic hedging performance studied.
problem Optimal hedging of European call options with and without transaction costs.
method Reinforcement Learning and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control.
result RL and DTSOC perform similarly to variance-optimal hedging in various market models.
New method for evaluating and learning in complex decision-making scenarios.
problem Evaluating and learning from policies in contextual combinatorial bandits with high bias and variance.
method Factored action space decomposition and importance sampling-based estimator (OPCB).
result OPCB achieves superior performance in OPE and OPL compared to conventional methods.
New Riemannian optimization improves variance estimation in mixed models.
problem Challenges in estimating variance parameters in linear mixed models due to constraints.
method Formulated as an optimization problem on a Riemannian manifold, using Riemannian gradient and Hessian.
result Yields higher quality variance parameter estimates compared to existing methods.
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
problem Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing
method BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation)
result Better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors
Paper improves confidence intervals and variance estimation for deep learning models.
problem Improving confidence intervals and variance estimation in deep learning models.
method Residual-based framework for conditional variance estimation; robust bootstrap procedure for confidence intervals.
result First non-asymptotic bounds for variance estimation using ReLU networks.