A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Graph neural networks improve residential location choice predictions.
I studied what role the US stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001, Gross Private Domestic Investment refers to the total amount of investment spending by businesses and firms located within the borders…
Competency questions help experts select best clustering for energy data.
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
Gas demand forecasting is a critical task for energy providers as it impacts on pipe reservation and stock planning. In this paper, the one-day-ahead forecasting of residential gas demand at country level is investigated by implementing and comparing five models: Ridge Regression, Gaussian Process (GP), k-Nearest Neigh…
Large datasets of sub-meter aerial imagery represented as orthophoto mosaics are widely available today, and these data sets may hold a great deal of untapped information. This imagery has a potential to locate several types of features; for example, forests, parking lots, airports, residential areas, or freeways in th…
The estimate of a Multiperiod probability of default applied to residential mortgages can be obtained using the mean of the observed default, so called the Mean of ratios estimator, or aggregating the default and the issued mortgages and computing the ratio of their sum, that is the Ratio of means. This work studies th…
New method for selecting clusters in residential electricity data.
Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic powe…
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
In coming years residential consumers will face real-time electricity tariffs with energy prices varying day to day, and effective energy saving will require automation - a recommender system, which learns consumer's preferences from her actions. A consumer chooses a scenario of home appliance use to balance her comfor…
Study forecasts Turkish residential NGD using JITL-GPR, reducing errors.
There is a widely-accepted need to revise current forms of health-care provision, with particular interest in sensing systems in the home. Given a multiple-modality sensor platform with heterogeneous network connectivity, as is under development in the Sensor Platform for HEalthcare in Residential Environment (SPHERE) …
Newly available data on the spatial distribution of retail activities in cities makes it possible to build models formalized at the level of the single retailer. Current models tackle consumer location choices at an aggregate level and the opportunity new data offers for modeling at the retail unit level lacks a theore…
This paper focuses on energy management in buildings with phase change material (PCM), which is primarily used to improve thermal performance, but can also serve as an energy storage system. In this setting, optimal scheduling of an HVAC system is challenging because of the nonlinear and non-convex characteristics of t…
Model forecasts natural gas consumption with Fourier series and feedback.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are the only truly liquid assets related to real estate investments. We study the behavior of U.S. REITs over the past three decades and document their return characteristics. REITs have somewhat less market risk than equity; their betas against a broad market index average about .…
New algorithms improve signal processing in federated learning.
Correntropy is a local similarity measure defined in kernel space and the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC) has been successfully applied in many areas of signal processing and machine learning in recent years. The kernel function in correntropy is usually restricted to the Gaussian function with center located at ze…
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus, low-aggregation load forecast still requires further research and development. Comp…
As sensor networks for health monitoring become more prevalent, so will the need to control their usage and consumption of energy. This paper presents a method which leverages the algorithm's performance and energy consumption. By utilising Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques, we provide an adaptive framework, which…
Novel approach models life events using causal discovery and survival analysis.
This paper analyzes consumer choices over lunchtime restaurants using data from a sample of several thousand anonymous mobile phone users in the San Francisco Bay Area. The data is used to identify users' approximate typical morning location, as well as their choices of lunchtime restaurants. We build a model where res…
Wealth tax equivalent to government stake, affecting returns and portfolio choice.
When the residents of Flint learned that lead had contaminated their water system, the local government made water-testing kits available to them free of charge. The city government published the results of these tests, creating a valuable dataset that is key to understanding the causes and extent of the lead contamina…
Adaptive selection of IPs improves online GP performance.
Strategic valuation of efficient and well-timed network investments under uncertain electricity market environment has become increasingly challenging, because there generally exist multiple interacting options in these investments, and failing to systematically consider these options can lead to decisions that underva…
We introduce a new paradigm that is important for community detection in the realm of network analysis. Networks contain a set of strong, dominant communities, which interfere with the detection of weak, natural community structure. When most of the members of the weak communities also belong to stronger communities, t…
In this paper we propose a method to obtain global explanations for trained black-box classifiers by sampling their decision function to learn alternative interpretable models. The envisaged approach provides a unified solution to approximate non-linear decision boundaries with simpler classifiers while retaining the o…
Though distribution system operators have been adding more sensors to their networks, they still often lack an accurate real-time picture of the behavior of distributed energy resources such as demand responsive electric loads and residential solar generation. Such information could improve system reliability, economic…
New method controls false discoveries in structured hypothesis spaces.
Many expensive black-box optimisation problems are sensitive to their inputs. In these problems it makes more sense to locate a region of good designs, than a single-possibly fragile-optimal design. Expensive black-box functions can be optimised effectively with Bayesian optimisation, where a Gaussian process is a popu…
Optimizes seismic monitoring networks using Bayesian OED.
Bayesian optimisation's mean function choice affects convergence speed.
Study improves loan default risk estimation using advanced regression models.
In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering partial ranking data. We start by developing a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the pr…
Many applied settings in empirical economics involve simultaneous estimation of a large number of parameters. In particular, applied economists are often interested in estimating the effects of many-valued treatments (like teacher effects or location effects), treatment effects for many groups, and prediction models wi…
Guarantees convergence for black-box variational inference without modifications.
An important application of intelligent vehicles is advance detection of dangerous events such as collisions. This problem is framed as a problem of optimal alarm choice given predictive models for vehicle location and motion. Techniques for real-time collision detection are surveyed and grouped into three classes: ran…
Global supply networks in agriculture, manufacturing, and services are a defining feature of the modern world. The efficiency and the distribution of surpluses across different parts of these networks depend on choices of intermediaries. This paper conducts price formation experiments with human subjects located in lar…
Accurate house prediction is of great significance to various real estate stakeholders such as house owners, buyers, investors, and agents. We propose a location-centered prediction framework that differs from existing work in terms of data profiling and prediction model. Regarding data profiling, we define and capture…
In the multiple changepoint setting, various search methods have been proposed which involve optimising either a constrained or penalised cost function over possible numbers and locations of changepoints using dynamic programming. Such methods are typically computationally intensive. Recent work in the penalised optimi…
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are widely used for speech emotion recognition (SER). In such cases, the short time fourier transform (STFT) spectrogram is the most popular choice for representing speech, which is fed as input to the CNN. However, the uncertainty principles of the short-time Fourier transform preve…
Motivated by recent advancements in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), we have developed an RL agent to manage the operation of storage devices in a household and is designed to maximize demand-side cost savings. The proposed technique is data-driven, and the RL agent learns from scratch how to efficiently use the energ…
Study calculates tail risk for various mixture distributions.
The implementation of smart building technology in the form of smart infrastructure applications has great potential to improve sustainability and energy efficiency by leveraging humans-in-the-loop strategy. However, human preference in regard to living conditions is usually unknown and heterogeneous in its manifestati…
This paper describes the data collection effort that is part of the project Sprekend Nederland (The Netherlands Talking), and discusses its potential use in Automatic Accent Location. We define Automatic Accent Location as the task to describe the accent of a speaker in terms of the location of the speaker and its hist…