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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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65129194258 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Reliability Metrics

Lack of reliability is a well-known issue for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. This problem has gained increasing attention in recent years, and efforts to improve it have grown substantially. To aid RL researchers and production users with the evaluation and improvement of reliability, we propose a set of metri…

2019-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Devising indicative evaluation metrics for the image generation task remains an open problem. The most widely used metric for measuring the similarity between real and generated images has been the Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) score. Because it does not differentiate the fidelity and diversity aspects of the genera…

2020-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

CAT framework improves AI medical screening fairness and reliability.

problem Imbalanced data, varying performance across cohorts, and patient-level inconsistencies in traditional metrics.
method CAT framework introduces patient-level assessment, entropy-based distribution weighting, and cohort-weighted sensitivity and specificity.
result Enhanced predictive reliability, fairness, and interpretability of AI-driven medical screening models.

New method uses interval-based metric to validate prediction uncertainty in machine learning.

problem Validation of prediction uncertainty in machine learning regression tasks is unreliable due to heavy-tailed distributions.
method Shift from variance-based metrics to interval-based Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP).
result PICP method more quickly and reliably tests prediction intervals than variance-based metrics.

This dissertation tackles challenges in reliable machine learning measurement.

problem Challenges in reproducibility, scalability, and uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
method Develops criteria for meaningful metrics and methodologies for scalable, reliable measurement.
result Provides methods for evaluating generative-AI systems and quantifying memorization.

Generative AI reduces IR evaluation costs but introduces errors; this work provides reliable CIs.

problem Generating relevance annotations using AI introduces errors that affect IR evaluation metrics.
method Proposes two methods: prediction-powered inference and conformal risk control to place reliable CIs around IR metrics.
result Proposed methods accurately capture both variance and bias in evaluation based on AI-generated annotations.

Proposes CCE to assess point-wise reliability of neural network predictions.

problem Overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions in neural networks.
method Introduces Conditional Congruence (CCE) metric using conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result CCE exhibits correctness, monotonicity, reliability, and robustness in high-dimensional regression tasks.

New metrics improve understanding of predictive system reliability.

problem Evaluating conditional coverage of predictive systems.
method Casting conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem, using excess risk of the target coverage (ERT) metrics.
result Modern classifiers provide higher statistical power for estimating conditional coverage.

GCAE uses density estimation to achieve reliable disentanglement in latent space.

problem Disentangled learning representations suffer from reliability issues.
method GCAE uses Gaussian Channel Autoencoder with Dual Total Correlation (DTC) to avoid the curse of dimensionality.
result GCAE achieves highly competitive and reliable disentanglement scores.

GICDM corrects hubness in embedding spaces for better generative model evaluation.

problem Hubness phenomenon distorts distances in high-dimensional embedding spaces.
method Generative ICDM (GICDM) using multi-scale extension to correct neighborhood estimation.
result GICDM resolves hubness-induced failures and improves metric behavior.

New method uses contrastively trained GNNs for more reliable graph model evaluation.

problem Need effective methods to evaluate Graph Generative Models.
method Use representations from contrastively trained Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for evaluation.
result Contrastively trained GNNs provide more reliable evaluation metrics than traditional or GNN-based approaches.

Research uses CPS to estimate uncertainty in ML radio metric models.

problem Estimating uncertainty in machine learning models for radio metrics and path loss.
method Conformal Prediction (CP) in Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) with diverse difficulty estimators.
result CPS models maintain high coverage and reliability across different cities.

AB-testing is a very popular technique in web companies since it makes it possible to accurately predict the impact of a modification with the simplicity of a random split across users. One of the critical aspects of an AB-test is its duration and it is important to reliably compute confidence intervals associated with…

2015-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a method to assess when automated predictions are reliable.

problem Ensuring reliability and safety of automated decision-making in machine learning.
method Clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids, defining a safety threshold based on these distances.
result The proposed metric can efficiently determine when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred.

Rating platforms enable large-scale collection of user opinion about items (products, other users, etc.). However, many untrustworthy users give fraudulent ratings for excessive monetary gains. In the paper, we present FairJudge, a system to identify such fraudulent users. We propose three metrics: (i) the fairness of …

2017-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

CapOptix uses options theory to price capacity in electricity markets.

problem Traditional capacity market designs fail to account for risk and price shocks.
method Interprets capacity commitments as reliability options and uses Markov Regime Switching Process.
result CapOptix provides more accurate pricing of capacity premia compared to existing mechanisms.

This study revisits UQ validation methods based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.

problem Lack of comprehensive validation methods for UQ metrics across input feature ranges.
method Revisit and extend common validation methods for UQ metrics based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.
result Improved understanding and capabilities of UQ metrics validation methods.

New metrics CWSA and CWSA+ improve model evaluation under confidence thresholds.

problem Lack of metrics capturing model reliability under confidence thresholds.
method Introducing CWSA and CWSA+ metrics that reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes.
result CWSA and CWSA+ outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests.

Study evaluates consistency of LLMs in binary text classification, providing systematic guidance.

problem Lack of reliable methods for evaluating large language model (LLM) binary text classification.
method Adapting psychometric principles, the study determines sample size requirements, develops metrics for invalid responses, and evaluates intra- and inter-rater reliability.
result LLMs demonstrated high intra-rater consistency, achieving perfect agreement on 90-98% of examples, with smaller models outperforming larger counterparts.

Open-source Vizier optimizes complex systems for Google and beyond.

problem Optimizing large-scale systems with multiple objectives and constraints.
method Distributed, fault-tolerant, flexible API for blackbox optimization.
result OSS Vizier supports a wide range of optimization problems and is available as open-source.

The paper improves A/B testing for non-Gaussian data, ensuring reliable results with large sample sizes.

problem Inaccurate A/B testing results due to non-normal data and unequal sample sizes.
method Derives explicit formulas for minimum sample size and introduces an Edgeworth-based correction.
result Corrected method improves reliability of A/B testing in real-world conditions.

Efficient neural network ensembles improve image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in neural network predictions for industrial image classification.
method Investigated efficient neural network ensembles (snapshot, batch, multi-input multi-output) for image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
result Batch ensemble is a cost-effective and competitive alternative to deep ensembles, offering savings in training and test time.

A new method uses conformal prediction to create reliable confidence masks for image super-resolution.

problem Uncertainty quantification in image super-resolution using generative models.
method Conformal prediction techniques applied to a confidence mask for reliable uncertainty communication.
result Strong theoretical guarantees and empirical solid performance in image super-resolution.

RoSHAP stabilizes feature attribution in machine learning models.

problem Stochastic variation in feature attribution measures.
method Modeling feature attribution score distribution and estimating it through bootstrap resampling and kernel density estimation.
result RoSHAP provides stable feature rankings and improves model performance.

New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.

problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.

Study finds machine learning interpretations are often unstable and unreliable.

problem Reliability of machine learning interpretations in high-stakes domains.
method Stability study on global interpretations using tabular data.
result Popular interpretation methods are frequently unstable, less stable than predictions, and not associated with prediction accuracy.

Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.

problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.

SAEs struggle with feature consistency across runs, hindering MI reliability.

problem Inconsistency of learned SAE features across different training runs.
method Propose using the Pairwise Dictionary Mean Correlation Coefficient (PW-MCC) to measure feature consistency.
result High levels of feature consistency (0.80 for TopK SAEs on LLM activations) are achievable with appropriate architectural choices.

Reassesses calibration metrics in machine learning models.

problem Inconsistent reporting of calibration metrics in recent literature.
method Calibration-based decomposition of Bregman divergences, visualization of calibration and generalization error.
result New visualization technique for detecting trade-offs between calibration and generalization.

Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.

problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.

Despite the numerous advances, reinforcement learning remains away from widespread acceptance for autonomous controller design as compared to classical methods due to lack of ability to effectively tackle the reality gap. The reliance on absolute or deterministic reward as a metric for optimization process renders rein…

2019-06-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Human-machine interaction is increasingly dependent on speech communication. Machine Learning models are usually applied to interpret human speech commands. However, these models can be fooled by adversarial examples, which are inputs intentionally perturbed to produce a wrong prediction without being noticed. While mu…

2020-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.

problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.

Geometric stability measures neural network robustness, distinguishing from similarity metrics.

problem Lack of robustness in neural network representations.
method Introduces geometric stability, quantified by Shesha metric measuring self-consistency.
result Stability and similarity are uncorrelated, revealing distinct properties of neural network robustness.

Neural nets solve electric field in non-convex microfluidic devices.

problem Solving differential equations in non-convex geometries.
method Neural network approximation of electric potential and field.
result Deep neural networks outperform shallow networks in accuracy.

Estimates metric tensor on neuromanifolds using Fisher information and random methods.

problem Computing the metric tensor on high-dimensional neuromanifolds efficiently and accurately.
method Deterministic bounds and unbiased random estimators based on Hutchinson's trace method.
result An efficient random estimator with bounded standard deviation.