A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study flows with isolated non-saddle sets and their region of influence.
GRANITE unifies feature-based explanation methods to reduce disagreement.
A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the most economic influence in an examined subset of the global economy. The proposed …
The consideration of spatial effects at a regional level is becoming increasingly frequent and the work of Anselin (1988), among others, has contributed to this. This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker) in the NUTs III economic …
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…
With this study we want to test the validity of the well known "Verdoorn's Law" which considers the relationship between the growth of productivity and output in the case of the Portuguese economy at a regional and sectoral levels (NUTs II) for the period 1995-1999. The importance of some additional variables in the or…
Success conditioning optimizes policies by imitating successful trajectories, solving a trust-region optimization problem.
Meta-learning improves few-shot land cover classification across diverse regions.
Preschool attendance correlates with lower developmental vulnerabilities in Queensland, Australia.
We describe a general framework for measuring risks, where the risk measure takes values in an abstract cone. It is shown that this approach naturally includes the classical risk measures and set-valued risk measures and yields a natural definition of vector-valued risk measures. Several main constructions of risk meas…
Proposes a method to quantify the reliability of salient regions in deep learning models using p-values.
New method R-LOCO improves local feature importance analysis.
The implied volatility surface (IVS) is a fundamental building block in computational finance. We provide a survey of methodologies for constructing such surfaces. We also discuss various topics which can influence the successful construction of IVS in practice: arbitrage-free conditions in both strike and time, how to…
We propose a new inferential framework for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses in statistical models specified by a system of high dimensional estimating equations. We construct an influence function by projecting the fitted estimating equations to a sparse direction obtained by solving a large-scale…
Study uses social network data to analyze regional inflation trends.
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) based training of neural networks with a large learning rate or a small batch-size typically ends in well-generalizing, flat regions of the weight space, as indicated by small eigenvalues of the Hessian of the training loss. However, the curvature along the SGD trajectory is poorly und…
Spatial ABM predicts housing market trends in Sydney.
This work aims mainly to present a project of research about the identification of the determinants that affect the mobility of labor. The empirical part of the work will be performed for the NUTS II and NUTS III of Portugal, from 1996 to 2002 and for 1991 and 2001, respectively (given the availability of statistical d…
We develop two new methods of constructing sequences of manifolds with positive scalar curvature that converge in the Gromov-Hausdorff and Intrinsic Flat sense to limit spaces with "pulled regions". The examples created rigorously within using these methods were announced by us a few years ago and have influenced the s…
This paper examines how regional trade agreements affect global trade relationships.
Model predicts stock prices using GAN and RoI Pooling.
Discriminatory trade liberalization policies are becoming more popular among world economies. Countries are motivated to enter for regional trade agreements to capture faster economic growth for alleviating poverty. In developing economies like most of the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations…
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
Bayesian GNNs with temperature improve prediction efficiency in CP.
New study on guidance in masked diffusion models, showing how it shapes sampling dynamics.
New method for online learning IC models with node-level feedback.
New cooperative dynamics enhances retrieval performance in neural networks.
This paper uses two hierarchical techniques, a minimal spanning tree and an ultrametric hierarchical tree, to extract a topological influence map for major currencies from the ultrametric distance matrix for 1996-2001. We find that these two techniques generate a defined and robust scale free network with meaningful ta…
The paper analyzes how noise geometry influences the performance of SGD in machine learning.
We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss function and a specific hyperparameter that allows for automatically detecting …
Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to 'low risk'. Previous approaches often emphasized that counterfactuals should be…
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recast accuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all sevent…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and …
The original contributions of this paper are twofold: a new understanding of the influence of noise on the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian of a set of image patches, and an algorithm to estimate a denoised set of patches from a noisy image. The algorithm relies on the following two observations: (1) the low-index e…
Neuroscientific theory suggests that dopaminergic neurons broadcast global reward prediction errors to large areas of the brain influencing the synaptic plasticity of the neurons in those regions. We build on this theory to propose a multi-agent learning framework with spiking neurons in the generalized linear model (G…
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
A deterministic system of interacting agents is considered as a model for economic dynamics. The dynamics of the system is described by a coupled map lattice with near neighbor interactions. The evolution of each agent results from the competition between two factors: the agent's own tendency to grow and the environmen…
In this paper, we propose a new fuzzy clustering algorithm based on the mode-seeking framework. Given a dataset in , we define regions of high density that we call cluster cores. We then consider a random walk on a neighborhood graph built on top of our data points which is designed to be attracted by hig…
Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.
Study dynamics and topology of flows near non-saddle sets or W-sets.
Dynamic Influence Tracker measures changing sample importance during model training.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in the conditional product convergence in the parishes' economies of mainland Portugal between 1991 and 2001 (the last year with data available for this spatial disaggregation level). To analyse the data, Moran's I statistic…
Laplacian mixture models identify overlapping regions of influence in unlabeled graph and network data in a scalable and computationally efficient way, yielding useful low-dimensional representations. By combining Laplacian eigenspace and finite mixture modeling methods, they provide probabilistic or fuzzy dimensionali…
The paper analyzes tech specialization and diversification at various scales.
Previous work has shown that popular trending events are important external factors which pose significant influence on user search behavior and also provided a way to computationally model this influence. However, their problem formulation was based on the strong assumption that each event poses its influence independ…
We address the problem of influence maximization when the social network is accompanied by diffusion cascades. In prior works, such information is used to compute influence probabilities, which is utilized by stochastic diffusion models in influence maximization. Motivated by the recent criticism on the effectiveness o…
RelatIF selects more intuitive training examples for explaining model predictions.