A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
The study predicts how discussions in mental disorder Reddit communities affect users' emotional states.
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with si…
Transactional network data can be thought of as a list of one-to-many communications(e.g., email) between nodes in a social network. Most social network models convert this type of data into binary relations between pairs of nodes. We develop a latent mixed membership model capable of modeling richer forms of transacti…
WSB's investment advice significantly outperformed the S&P500 over 3 years, but not consistently.
Media seems to have become more partisan, often providing a biased coverage of news catering to the interest of specific groups. It is therefore essential to identify credible information content that provides an objective narrative of an event. News communities such as digg, reddit, or newstrust offer recommendations,…
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
In this work, we ask two questions: 1. Can we predict the type of community interested in a news article using only features from the article content? and 2. How well do these models generalize over time? To answer these questions, we compute well-studied content-based features on over 60K news articles from 4 communit…
Study finds Twitter activity correlates with stock volatility but not sentiment.
In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling sparse time-varying networks. A positive parameter is associated to each node of a network, which models the sociability of that node. Sociabilities are assumed to evolve over time, and are modelled via a dynamic point process model. The model is a…
Detecting depression early from social media texts.
Project classifies Hinglish social content on platforms like Twitter, Reddit.
A dataset for detecting online hate speech from YouTube and Reddit comments.
This paper studies how social media posts, especially by executives, affect stock prices.
Deep learning predicts stock movements using social media data.
This paper forecasts cryptocurrency log-returns using LASSO-VAR and sentiment analysis.
AI agents on social networks rarely engage in extended conversations.
New dataset and models detect cryptocurrency bubbles using social media data.
The paper predicts Bitcoin prices using machine learning and sentiment analysis.
This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as well as transactional data directly from the blockchain) is available online, some…
Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to…
In this paper, we study the problem of node representation learning with graph neural networks. We present a graph neural network class named recurrent graph neural network (RGNN), that address the shortcomings of prior methods. By using recurrent units to capture the long-term dependency across layers, our methods can…
In this paper, we propose a deep, globally normalized topic model that incorporates structural relationships connecting documents in socially generated corpora, such as online forums. Our model (1) captures discursive interactions along observed reply links in addition to traditional topic information, and (2) incorpor…
This paper describes our system submitted to SemEval 2019 Task 7: RumourEval 2019: Determining Rumour Veracity and Support for Rumours, Subtask A (Gorrell et al., 2019). The challenge focused on classifying whether posts from Twitter and Reddit support, deny, query, or comment a hidden rumour, truthfulness of which is …
Adversarial tweets can fool stock prediction models, causing financial loss.
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) are powerful deep neural networks for graph-structured data. However, GCN computes the representation of a node recursively from its neighbors, making the receptive field size grow exponentially with the number of layers. Previous attempts on reducing the receptive field size by subs…
Author2Vec generates user embeddings from social media data.
The evolution of social media users' behavior over time complicates user-level comparison tasks such as verification, classification, clustering, and ranking. As a result, naïve approaches may fail to generalize to new users or even to future observations of previously known users. In this paper, we propose a novel pro…
Opioid addiction is a severe public health threat in the U.S, causing massive deaths and many social problems. Accurate relapse prediction is of practical importance for recovering patients since relapse prediction promotes timely relapse preventions that help patients stay clean. In this paper, we introduce a Generati…
Low-dimensional embeddings of nodes in large graphs have proved extremely useful in a variety of prediction tasks, from content recommendation to identifying protein functions. However, most existing approaches require that all nodes in the graph are present during training of the embeddings; these previous approaches …
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) are powerful models for learning representations of attributed graphs. To scale GCNs to large graphs, state-of-the-art methods use various layer sampling techniques to alleviate the "neighbor explosion" problem during minibatch training. We propose GraphSAINT, a graph sampling based …
Research from a variety of fields including psychology and linguistics have found correlations and patterns in personal attributes and behavior, but efforts to understand the broader heterogeneity in human behavior have not yet integrated these approaches and perspectives with a cohesive methodology. Here we extract pa…
New approach learns graph representations by contrasting first-order neighbors and graph diffusion views.
Scaling multinomial logistic regression to datasets with very large number of data points and classes is challenging. This is primarily because one needs to compute the log-partition function on every data point. This makes distributing the computation hard. In this paper, we present a distributed stochastic gradient d…
Study detects endogenous bubbles in meme stocks using CI.
A new framework predicts links in time-dependent networks using Bernoulli autoregression.
Study evaluates how well question-answering models generalize to new data types.
A new framework maximizes influence spread in social networks by accounting for inter-community diffusion.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
We introduce the concept of community trees that summarizes topological structures within a network. A community tree is a tree structure representing clique communities from the clique percolation method (CPM). The community tree also generates a persistent diagram. Community trees and persistent diagrams reveal topol…
Community detection improves stock market portfolio optimization.
We introduce a new paradigm that is important for community detection in the realm of network analysis. Networks contain a set of strong, dominant communities, which interfere with the detection of weak, natural community structure. When most of the members of the weak communities also belong to stronger communities, t…
Study exact community detection in k-community Gaussian mixtures with different intensities.
Simplified trust region method reduces representation change during fine-tuning.
The paper introduces a method for detecting principal communities and embedding vertices.
Improved distributed learning with reduced communication costs.
Statistical estimates can often be improved by fusion of data from several different sources. One example is so-called ensemble methods which have been successfully applied in areas such as machine learning for classification and clustering. In this paper, we present an ensemble method to improve community detection by…
MACC learns communication protocols by adapting counterfactual reasoning.