A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A group is properly 3-realizable if it is the fundamental group of a compact polyhedron whose universal covering is proper homotopically equivalent to some 3-manifold. We prove that when such a group is also quasi-simply filtered then it has {\em pro-(finitely generated free) fundamental group at infinity} and {\em sem…
We show that a continuous local semiflow of Ck-maps on a finite-dimensional Ck-manifold M can be embedded into a local Ck-flow on M under some weak (necessary) assumptions. This result is applied to an open problem in [fil/tei:01]. We prove that finite-dimensional realizations for interest rate models are high…
We obtain a bound for the area of a capillary H−surface in a three-manifold with umbilic boundary and controlled sectional curvature. We then analyze the geometry when this area bound is realized, and obtain rigidity theorems. As a side product, we obtain existence of totally geodesic embedded surfaces in hyperbolic …
Value-function approximation methods that operate in batch mode have foundational importance to reinforcement learning (RL). Finite sample guarantees for these methods often crucially rely on two types of assumptions: (1) mild distribution shift, and (2) representation conditions that are stronger than realizability. H…
Procyclicality of historical risk measure estimation means that one tends to over-estimate future risk when present realized volatility is high and vice versa under-estimate future risk when the realized volatility is low. Out of it different questions arise, relevant for applications and theory: What are the factors w…
Cooperation information sharing is important to theories of human learning and has potential implications for machine learning. Prior work derived conditions for achieving optimal Cooperative Inference given strong, relatively restrictive assumptions. We relax these assumptions by demonstrating convergence for any disc…
We consider the multi-armed bandit setting with a twist. Rather than having just one decision maker deciding which arm to pull in each round, we have n different decision makers (agents). In the simple stochastic setting, we show that a "free-riding" agent observing another "self-reliant" agent can achieve just $O(1)…
A major challenge in contextual bandits is to design general-purpose algorithms that are both practically useful and theoretically well-founded. We present a new technique that has the empirical and computational advantages of realizability-based approaches combined with the flexibility of agnostic methods. Our algorit…
This paper proposes a new RV prediction model using neural distributional transformation and co-training.
problem Predicting skewed and fat-tailed realized volatility (RV) is challenging.
method The paper uses a neural distributional transformation and co-training to predict RV. It jointly trains the transformation and prediction model using a maximum-likelihood objective function.
result The proposed method significantly outperforms other methods on a dataset of 100 stocks.
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…
A viable and still unproved conjecture states that, if X is a smooth algebraic surface and C is a smooth algebraic curve in X, then C realizes the smallest possible genus amongst all smoothly embedded 2-manifolds in its homology class. A proof is announced here for this conjecture, for a large class of surfac…
The basic financial purpose of a firm is to maximize its value. An inventory management system should also contribute to realization of this basic aim. Many current asset management models currently found in financial management literature were constructed with the assumption of book profit maximization as basic aim. H…
This paper studies universal rates of ERM for binary classification under agnostic learning.
problem The challenge of achieving universal rates of ERM for binary classification under agnostic learning.
method The paper explores the agnostic universal rates of ERM for binary classification, revealing three possible rates: e−n, o(n−1/2), or arbitrarily slow.
result The paper provides a complete characterization of which concept classes fall into each of the three categories of agnostic universal rates.
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …