Bayesian optimization with RPCE reduces MAP estimation for structural dynamics models.
problem Estimating parameters of structural dynamic models efficiently.
method Bayesian optimization with RPCE surrogate model.
result Effective reduction in model evaluations for MAP estimation.
Enhances polynomial chaos models with uncertainty intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in surrogate models.
method Jackknife-based conformal prediction integrated into polynomial chaos expansions.
result Produces accurate predictive intervals for low-accuracy models.
Sparse Polynomial Chaos expansions improve accuracy and efficiency in simulations.
problem Challenges in computational efficiency and accuracy for Polynomial Chaos modeling.
method Sparse Bayesian learning using Variational Relevance Vector Machines.
result Sparse Polynomial Chaos expansions achieve comparable performance to compressive sensing with fewer data points.
A new method builds sparse polynomial chaos expansions for models with dependent inputs.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in models with dependent inputs.
method Data-driven approach to construct orthonormal polynomials recursively based on input correlations.
result Reduces the number of observations and improves numerical stability and computational efficiency.
Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive sensing algorith…
Bayesian adaptive PCE method improves surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis.
problem Lack of fully Bayesian PCE methods in statistics.
method Developed a novel fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with R implementation.
result Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for various UQ tasks.
The paper models asset prices using Wiener chaos expansions for efficient calibration to implied volatility surfaces.
problem Calibrating to implied volatility surfaces using flexible martingale models.
method Constructing an over-parameterized martingale model based on Wiener chaos expansions and conditional expectations.
result The method enables fast calibration to implied volatility surfaces and demonstrates flexibility through numerical experiments.
Polynomial Chaos Expansion improves operator learning for PDEs.
problem Approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional functional spaces.
method Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) for operator learning.
result PCE achieves strong performance in operator learning and uncertainty quantification.
Combines Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos for stochastic control.
problem Uncertainties in dynamic models lead to performance issues in predictive control.
method Combines Gaussian processes with polynomial chaos expansions to estimate probability distributions of nonlinear functions.
result Demonstrates accurate approximation and closed-loop performance in stochastic nonlinear model predictive control.
AL-SPCE improves reliability analysis for complex systems with active learning and SPCE.
problem Efficiently analyzing reliability of complex, computationally expensive models with intrinsic randomness.
method Active learning framework using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions (SPCE) to reduce computational burden.
result AL-SPCE maintains high accuracy in reliability estimates while significantly improving efficiency.
This paper simplifies conditional Sobol' indices calculation using PCE bases.
problem Computational inefficiency and lack of consistency in evaluating conditional Sobol' indices.
method Analytical extraction of conditional Sobol' indices via basis decomposition of PCE expansions.
result Derives closed-form expressions for conditional Sobol' indices.
Enhanced PC2 improves surrogate modeling for high-dimensional problems.
problem Degrading performance and efficiency of PC2 in high-dimensional parameter spaces. method Integrates SULM solver and D-optimal sampling strategy into PC2 framework. result Enhanced PC2 demonstrates better comprehensive capability and efficiency. Polynomial chaos expansions on Grassmannian submanifolds for high-dimensional stochastic systems.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic systems.
method Principal Geodesic Analysis on the Grassmann manifold, adaptive algorithm for local submanifolds, polynomial chaos expansion.
result Efficient surrogate modeling of system behavior across different parameter spaces.
Sparse Bayesian learning improves rational approximations for complex-valued models.
problem Efficiently approximate complex-valued models with high non-linearity.
method Sparse Bayesian learning applied to rational approximation of complex-valued models.
result Sparse Bayesian learning reduces computational cost while maintaining accuracy.
Jones polynomial coincidences explored for rational knots.
problem Identifying coincidences in Jones polynomial of rational knots.
method Moves on continued fraction expansion of rational knots, conjectured to generate all coincidences.
result Conjectured moves are sufficient to generate all Jones rational coincidences.
Polynomial chaos surrogates handle intrinsic noise in stochastic models.
problem Handling intrinsic noise in stochastic models with parametric uncertainty.
method Developed a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty using Rosenblatt transformations and Karhunen-Loeve expansion.
result Quantified intrinsic noise contribution to model output variance using PCE Sobol indices.
Paper uses PCE to quantify ML model and input uncertainties.
problem Accurately quantify and propagate combined uncertainties in ML predictions.
method Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) for joint input and model uncertainty.
result Efficient and accurate calculation of output variability and sensitivity.
Enhances PCE surrogates using transfer learning for expensive simulations.
problem Over-sampling in PCE for expensive forward models.
method Transfer learning from similar tasks to a new task with limited training data.
result Improves scalability and accuracy of PCE surrogates.
A new method for creating simpler models from complex ones.
problem Creating accurate approximations of complex models at reduced costs.
method Sequential adaptive surrogate modeling based on locally spectral expansions.
result Stochastic spectral embedding (SSE) shows good approximation capabilities and scalability.
A new method combines SciML and UQ with physical constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning tasks.
method Physics-constrained polynomial chaos expansion.
result Effective uncertainty quantification and SciML integration.
CODE learns ODE dynamics from sparse data, outperforming neural and kernel methods.
problem Learning ODE dynamics from sparse and noisy data.
method CODE uses Polynomial Chaos Expansion (aPCE) for the ODE's RHS, enabling global orthonormal polynomial representation.
result CODE exhibits remarkable extrapolation capabilities even under novel initial conditions and measurement noise.
Bayesian approach improves sparse PCE for high-dimensional problems.
problem Sparse PCE struggles with high-dimensional uncertainty and underdetermined situations.
method Joint shrinkage priors and MCMC for sparse PCE with uncertainty estimation.
result Bayesian PCE achieves sparse representations with higher polynomial degrees.
A new neural network model uses polynomial chaos theory to improve neural signal processing.
problem Redundant neural signal representation in DANNs.
method Employing arbitrary polynomial chaos theory to construct orthonormal representations in DANNs.
result Improves neural signal processing by reducing redundancy and enhancing orthogonality.
Neural Chaos uses neural networks instead of polynomials for stochastic modeling.
problem Challenges in constructing surrogate models with uncertainty quantification for complex or high-dimensional stochastic processes.
method Adopting spectral expansion formalism with neural network basis functions, identifying them data-drivenly without prior assumptions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed scheme through numerical examples of varying complexity.
Conformal prediction improves prediction intervals for PCEs, especially in sparse cases.
problem Quantifying local model errors in PCEs for small datasets.
method Integration of conformal prediction methods (full and Jackknife+) into full and sparse PCEs.
result Better-calibrated prediction intervals for both full and sparse PCEs.
We formulate a conjecture (already proven by A. Kricker) about the structure of Kontsevich integral of a knot. We describe its value in terms of the generating functions for the numbers of external edges attached to closed 3-valent diagrams. We conjecture that these functions are rational functions of the exponentials …
Surrogate model construction for vector-valued outputs
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy and stability for complex engineering systems
method Adaptive sequential sampling for polynomial chaos expansion
result Improves surrogate accuracy and stability
In this paper we calibrate chaotic models for interest rates to market data using a polynomial-exponential parametrization for the chaos coefficients. We identify a subclass of one-variable models that allow us to introduce complexity from higher order chaos in a controlled way while retaining considerable analytic tra…
This paper optimizes PCE for efficient surrogate modeling in engineering.
problem Efficiently selecting polynomial regressors for surrogate modeling in computationally expensive models.
method Three state-of-the-art basis-adaptive sparse PCE methods are compared and analyzed.
result Automatic selection of the best solver and basis-adaptive scheme improves surrogate model accuracy.
Neural networks solve SPDEs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Solving stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) numerically.
method Using neural networks in the truncated Wiener chaos expansion.
result Approximation rates for learning SPDE solutions with noise.
New method distinguishes data noise from GP uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in kernel regression with non-Gaussian noise.
method Wiener chaos expansions for non-Gaussian noise.
result Can distinguish aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty.
New method estimates SDE parameters efficiently using WCE and SGD.
problem Parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations.
method Wiener Chaos Expansion and Stochastic Gradient Descent.
result Accurate parameter recovery from noisy observations.
We present a regression technique for data-driven problems based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). PCE is a popular technique in the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ), where it is typically used to replace a runnable but expensive computational model subject to random inputs with an inexpensive-to-evaluate po…
Turning the skein relation for HOMFLY into a Fibonacci recurrence, we prove that there are only three rational specializations of HOMFLY polynomial: Alexander-Conway, Jones, and a new one. Using the recurrence relation, we find general and relative expansion formulae and rational generating functions for Alexander-Conw…
A rational link may be represented by any of the (infinitely) many link diagrams corresponding to various continued fraction expansions of the same rational number. The continued fraction expansion of the rational number in which all signs are the same is called a {\em nonalternating form} and the diagram corresponding…
The article calculates a multiplying factor to convert rational Vassiliev invariants to integer-valued ones.
problem Converting rational valued Vassiliev invariants to integer-valued ones.
method Calculates the minimal multiplying factor λ needed for rational Vassiliev invariants to become integer-valued.
result Obtains a set of integer-valued Vassiliev invariants.
New chaos formula simplifies variance calculation for Gaussian nodal volumes.
problem Analyzing the variance of Gaussian nodal volumes on Riemannian manifolds.
method Explicit Wiener-Itô chaos decomposition, reducing complexity from 2+2n to 4 Hermite polynomials. result New exact formula for variance and bounds, valid for arbitrary manifolds.
Gradient-enhanced GSA uses Poincaré chaos expansions for accurate sensitivity analysis.
problem Accurately estimating Sobol' indices with limited data.
method Integrates sparse, gradient-enhanced regression with Poincaré chaos expansions for derivative-based sensitivity analysis.
result Accurately estimated Sobol' indices using limited data.
Polynomial chaos surrogates quantify epistemic uncertainty in AI-driven scientific models.
problem Uncertainty in reward estimates hinders interpretability in sequential generative models.
method Fit polynomial chaos expansions to trained models to propagate epistemic uncertainty and quantify sensitivity.
result Interpretable decomposition of reward components driving generative decisions.
This paper proposes a new method to optimize portfolio allocation with transaction costs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with transaction costs in multi-period settings.
method Wiener chaos expansion approach to represent and solve the optimization problem.
result The proposed method finds an optimal strategy for portfolio allocation with transaction costs.
Using a simple recurrence relation we give a new method to compute Jones polynomials of closed braids: we find a general expansion formula and a rational generating function for Jones polynomials. The method is used to estimate degree of Jones polynomials for some families of braids and to obtain general qualitative re…
PCENet reduces uncertainty in high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional data is computationally expensive.
method Two-stage learning process: variational autoencoder for low-dimensional representation, polynomial chaos expansion for mapping.
result Model captures system dynamics, learns under uncertainty, estimates high-dimensional data uncertainty, matches output distribution moments.
In this work, we propose a new policy iteration algorithm for pricing Bermudan options when the payoff process cannot be written as a function of a lifted Markov process. Our approach is based on a modification of the well-known Longstaff Schwartz algorithm, in which we basically replace the standard least square regre…
New method samples from time-integrated stochastic bridges using neural networks.
problem Sampling from time-integrated stochastic bridges with high accuracy and speed.
method Polynomial chaos expansion and artificial neural networks.
result Robust, data-driven Monte Carlo sampling with thousands of samples in milliseconds.
Surrogate models help predict complex systems with less computational cost.
problem Uncertainty in complex systems due to variability and external loads.
method Surrogate models trained on limited simulations to approximate full time-dependent response.
result Efficient surrogate models reduce computational expense for UQ in nonlinear dynamics.
New q-deformed integers help compute Jones polynomials efficiently.
problem Computing Jones polynomials of rational links efficiently.
method Defining q-deformed integers from pairs of coprime integers and using them to compute Jones polynomials.
result Efficient algorithm for computing Jones polynomials of rational links.
Study proposes a new model for joint survival annuity valuation.
problem Valuation of joint survival annuities and options.
method Linear-rational Wishart mortality model based on stochastic matrix affine process.
result Derives closed-form expression for joint survival annuity and option.
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.