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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,932 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Rating patterns

Learning rate decay helps modern neural networks by suppressing memorization and improving complex pattern learning.

problem Understanding the effectiveness of learning rate decay in training modern neural networks.
method Proposes a new explanation for lrDecay effectiveness based on network behavior and pattern complexity.
result Learning rate decay improves complex pattern learning and suppresses memorization of noisy data.

Study of financial time series and Brownian motion using order patterns and permutation entropy.

problem Analyzing order patterns and variation in financial time series and Brownian motion.
method Use of order patterns and permutation entropy to study financial data and Brownian motion, focusing on turning rate and up-down balance.
result For small lags, pattern frequencies in financial data remain constant. Up-down balance is better for change points in financial data.

Large initial learning rate helps neural nets generalize better.

problem Understanding why large initial learning rates lead to better neural net generalization.
method Developed a proof for a two-layer network and demonstrated with experiments on CIFAR-10.
result Proved that a two-layer network trained with a large initial learning rate and annealing generalizes better than one trained with a small learning rate.

The paper introduces false discovery rate control for BMF to avoid noisy patterns.

problem No guarantees exist for BMF patterns being real, not just noise.
method Proposes false discovery rate (FDR) to control BMF patterns, proving bounds on FDR.
result Improved BMF algorithms using theoretical FDR bounds for rank selection.

We studied non-dynamical stochastic resonance for the number of trades in the stock market. The trade arrival rate presents a deterministic pattern that can be modeled by a cosine function perturbed by noise. Due to the nonlinear relationship between the rate and the observed number of trades, the noise can either enha…

2008-07-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Previous work on recommender systems mainly focus on fitting the ratings provided by users. However, the response patterns, i.e., some items are rated while others not, are generally ignored. We argue that failing to observe such response patterns can lead to biased parameter estimation and sub-optimal model performanc…

2012-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Empirical study on UEEs reveals liquidity's role and universal recovery patterns.

problem Understanding and stabilizing financial markets affected by UEEs.
method Comparative analysis of UEEs over different years in US stock market.
result Liquidity is dominant in UEEs emergence and recovery patterns are universal.

LLMs detect market patterns through causal reasoning, not just temporal association.

problem Detecting structural market patterns in financial data.
method Obfuscation testing using the WHO-WHOM-WHAT framework.
result LLMs achieve 71.5% detection rate of market patterns without temporal context.

LNUCB-TA improves MAB performance by dynamically adjusting exploration rates and recognizing spatiotemporal patterns.

problem Suboptimal performance in environments with rapidly changing reward structures and static exploration rates.
method Hybrid model combining linear and nonlinear estimation, with adaptive k-NN for temporal attention.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in cumulative and mean reward, convergence, and robustness.

Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.

problem Forecasting crash rates in areas with irregular traffic patterns and exogenous events.
method Adopted a stochastic volatility model to capture heterogeneity and temporal instability.
result The stochastic volatility model outperforms conventional models in forecasting crash rates in Washington, D.C.

Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.

problem Identify clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.
method Symbolic data analysis (SDA) with age, gender, and main causes of death dimensions.
result Identified clusters of EU countries with similar mortality patterns in young population.

For using neural networks in safety critical domains, it is important to know if a decision made by a neural network is supported by prior similarities in training. We propose runtime neuron activation pattern monitoring - after the standard training process, one creates a monitor by feeding the training data to the ne…

2018-09-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The existence of forbidden patterns, i.e., certain missing sequences in a given time series, is a recently proposed instrument of potential application in the study of time series. Forbidden patterns are related to the permutation entropy, which has the basic properties of classic chaos indicators, thus allowing to sep…

2007-11-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.

problem Understanding which macroeconomic events impact exchange rate volatility.
method Data-driven approach to select relevant macroeconomic events using sparsity-based methods.
result The identified macroeconomic events significantly impact exchange rate volatility.

COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.

problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.

In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices have gained in importance with the newly adopted IFRS 9 accounting standard. Here,…

2017-07-31abs ↗pdf ↗

The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space - time and maturity. Geostatistical models and machine le…

2007-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.

problem Testing robustness of rough fractional volatility model over various time scales.
method Used large dataset on FX rates, included smoothing and measurement errors, analyzed log-log plots of realized variance increments.
result Found new stylized facts in volatility patterns, including convexity and nonlinear behavior.

This paper reports on our analysis of the 2011 CAMRa Challenge dataset (Track 2) for context-aware movie recommendation systems. The train dataset comprises 4,536,891 ratings provided by 171,670 users on 23,974$ movies, as well as the household groupings of a subset of the users. The test dataset comprises 5,450 rating…

2012-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

This study explains RL training dynamics in LLMs, focusing on token-level optimization and reasoning pattern reshaping.

problem Understanding the training dynamics of RL in LLMs to improve their reasoning capabilities.
method Empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of RL training process, focusing on reasoning patterns and token optimization.
result RL primarily optimizes a sparse subset of critical tokens, reshaping reasoning pattern distributions and affecting model performance.

Boolean matrix factorisation aims to decompose a binary data matrix into an approximate Boolean product of two low rank, binary matrices: one containing meaningful patterns, the other quantifying how the observations can be expressed as a combination of these patterns. We introduce the OrMachine, a probabilistic genera…

2017-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…

2013-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The study uses Hidden Markov Models to analyze student enrollment patterns and academic performance.

problem Limited understanding of how enrollment patterns affect academic performance.
method Applied Hidden Markov Models to categorize enrollment strategies and compare academic outcomes.
result Mixed enrollment strategies lead to better academic performance, especially during part-time semesters.

New method attacks GNNs with limited node access, increasing misclassification rate.

problem Attacking GNNs with limited node access and limited attack nodes.
method Generalized gradient-based attacks using importance scores derived from random walks.
result Proposed greedy procedure significantly increases misclassification rate.

Detects backdoors in trained classifiers without access to training data.

problem Post-training detection of backdoor attacks in DNN image classifiers.
method Purely unsupervised anomaly detection (AD) approach.
result Detects whether a classifier has been backdoor-attacked and infers source and target classes.

Estimates treatment effects in panel data with general intervention patterns.

problem Estimating average treatment effects in panel data with heterogeneous treatment effects.
method Extends synthetic control framework to allow rate-optimal recovery of average treatment effects for general intervention patterns.
result First rate-optimal guarantees for general intervention patterns in estimating average treatment effects.

Paper proposes a new tensor imputation method for spatiotemporal traffic data with missing patterns.

problem Imputation of corrupted or incomplete traffic data.
method Truncated tensor Schatten p-norm (TSpN) for spatiotemporal traffic data imputation.
result The proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art tensor-based imputation models in various missing cases.