The paper tackles fast rates in structured prediction problems.
problem Structured prediction problems with discrete outputs.
method Introducing continuous surrogate problems and leveraging their convergence rates for discrete problems.
result Super fast rates, including exponential rates, for excess risk in structured prediction problems.
POLA adapts learning rates for online time series prediction.
problem Adapting to changing data distributions in dynamic environments.
method Adaptive learning rate regulation for recurrent neural networks.
result POLA outperforms other online prediction methods in real-world datasets.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
Neural networks predict TED Talk ratings from transcripts, removing bias.
problem Predicting public speaking performance from speech transcripts.
method Causal diagram modeling, word sequence and dependency tree based neural networks.
result Average F-score of 0.77, significantly outperforming baseline methods.
AI improves credit rating predictions over traditional methods.
problem Improving credit rating predictions for global corporate entities.
method Applying deep learning techniques, specifically neural networks with categorical embeddings, to a large dataset of corporate obligations.
result Deep learning models achieve adequate accuracy in predicting different credit rating classes.
Paper finds funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
problem Understanding the relationship between BitMEX funding rates and Bitcoin derivatives.
method Examined Heteroskedasticity of funding rates, established Granger causality, developed GARCH models for prediction.
result Funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
This study uses machine learning to predict sovereign credit ratings and identifies key factors.
problem Predicting sovereign credit ratings and identifying important factors.
method Used Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Ordered Logit (OL) models.
result MLP is the best model for predicting sovereign credit ratings with a 68% accuracy.
Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on fi…
The two main tasks in the Recommender Systems domain are the ranking and rating prediction tasks. The rating prediction task aims at predicting to what extent a user would like any given item, which would enable to recommend the items with the highest predicted scores. The ranking task on the other hand directly aims a…
The paper presents a multi-power law for predicting loss curves across different learning rate schedules.
problem Understanding and optimizing the relationship between model performance and hyperparameters, especially learning rates.
method Proposes a multi-power law that combines power laws based on the sum of learning rates and additional laws for loss reduction due to decay.
result The multi-power law accurately predicts loss curves for unseen learning rate schedules and finds a schedule that outperforms cosine learning rate.
Neural network predicts short rate model steps accurately.
problem Predicting intractable short rate model steps.
method Proposes an algorithm using neural networks.
result Achieves superior outcomes compared to unbiased estimate.
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
problem Complexity and ambiguity in financial and economic systems make precise exchange rate predictions difficult.
method Developed a fundamental-based model using machine learning and interpretability methods.
result Crude oil is the leading factor determining exchange rate dynamics, with significant events affecting its contribution.
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…
Model predicts ESG ratings from news articles using multivariate timeseries analysis.
problem Lack of accurate and automated methods for ESG ratings prediction.
method Multivariate timeseries analysis combined with deep learning.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting ESG ratings.
Optimizes prediction error method for time-varying models.
problem Achieving optimal prediction error rates for time-varying models.
method Nonlinear least squares method for time-varying parametric models.
result First rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis for time-varying models.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
Predicting the click-through rate of an advertisement is a critical component of online advertising platforms. In sponsored search, the click-through rate estimates the probability that a displayed advertisement is clicked by a user after she submits a query to the search engine. Commercial search engines typically rel…
This study compares neural networks, SVM, and decision trees for corporate credit rating predictions.
problem Predicting corporate credit ratings using machine learning methods.
method Applied four machine learning techniques (Bagged Decision Trees, Random Forest, SVM, MLP) to credit rating datasets.
result Decision tree-based models outperformed other techniques in terms of 'Notch Distance' measure.
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
Improved sampling for Bayesian neural networks reduces vanishing acceptance rates and increases predictive accuracy.
problem Sampling inefficiency in Bayesian neural networks, especially with deep architectures and large datasets.
method Approximate blocked Gibbs sampling to partition and sample subgroups of parameters.
result Increased predictive accuracy and quantification of predictive uncertainty in classification tasks.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
Unified framework for robust linear predictions without distributional assumptions.
problem Robust linear predictions in the presence of outliers and model misspecification.
method Unified robust framework for linear prediction problems on Hilbert spaces, using Median of Means (MoM) approach.
result Achieves an error rate of \(O(\max\left\{|\mathcal{O}|^{1/2}n^{-1/2}, |\mathcal{I}|^{1/2}n^{-1}
ight\}+ε)\) for misspecification level \(ε\), matching best-known rates.
New model explains deep learning performance at large learning rates.
problem Understanding deep learning performance at different learning rates.
method Developed neural networks with solvable training dynamics.
result Large learning rates lead to convergence to flatter minima.
Rating Prediction is a basic problem in Recommender System, and one of the most widely used method is Factorization Machines(FM). However, traditional matrix factorization methods fail to utilize the benefit of implicit feedback, which has been proved to be important in Rating Prediction problem. In this work, we consi…
CCR-CNN uses CNN to predict corporate credit ratings from financial data.
problem Lack of data and limited model performance in predicting corporate credit ratings.
method Transform corporations into images and use CNN to analyze complex feature interactions.
result CCR-CNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting corporate credit ratings.
Investigates fast prediction rates with limited expert advice.
problem Minimizing excess generalization error with limited expert access.
method Assumes Lipschitz and strongly convex loss, designs novel algorithms.
result Achieves fast rates of O(1/T) with optimal number of expert advices.
Recommendation systems and computing advertisements have gradually entered the field of academic research from the field of commercial applications. Click-through rate prediction is one of the core research issues because the prediction accuracy affects the user experience and the revenue of merchants and platforms. Fe…
Scientific explanation often requires inferring maximally predictive features from a given data set. Unfortunately, the collection of minimal maximally predictive features for most stochastic processes is uncountably infinite. In such cases, one compromises and instead seeks nearly maximally predictive features. Here, …
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between 1960 and 2014 was following a trajectory approaching asymptotically a constant val…
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating transition matrices to the macroeconomic variables. Our method can overcome the shortcomi…
Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates during inference to improve uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Static dropout rates lead to suboptimal uncertainty estimates in neural networks.
method Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates using information-theoretic principles.
result Rate-In improves calibration and sharpens uncertainty estimates compared to fixed or heuristic dropout rates.
Develops methods to select informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
problem Selecting informative prediction sets with FCR control in supervised learning.
method Unified framework for informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
result First procedures providing FCR control for informative prediction sets.
Hybrid QML model improves recovery rate prediction accuracy.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies, high-dimensional feature spaces, and limited sample sizes in recovery rate forecasting.
method Hybrid Quantum Machine Learning (QML) with Amplitude Encoding, leveraging PQC and qubit data compression.
result Significantly lower RMSE (0.228) compared to classical models.
The paper controls false discovery rate in link prediction using conformal inference.
problem Identifying true edges in a graph while controlling false discoveries.
method Proposes a novel method based on conformal inference to control false discovery rate (FDR) in link prediction.
result Empirically demonstrates FDR control for both simulated and real data.
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
problem Forecasting bond yields using ultimate forward rates.
method Applied de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology for UFR estimation, used linear and nonlinear machine learning techniques.
result Nonlinear machine learning models outperform linear models in bond yield forecasting.
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics i…
Study compares RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks for forex rate prediction.
problem Improving real-time forex rate prediction accuracy.
method Analyzes RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks' characteristics and advantages.
result Provides insights for selecting the best price-prediction model.
Rating prediction is an important application, and a popular research topic in collaborative filtering. However, both the validity of learning algorithms, and the validity of standard testing procedures rest on the assumption that missing ratings are missing at random (MAR). In this paper we present the results of a us…
Researchers calculate Shannon entropy rates of hidden Markov processes efficiently.
problem No finite expression exists for Shannon entropy rates of hidden Markov processes.
method Developed an efficient method to calculate entropy rates and identify minimal predictive features.
result Entropy rates can be accurately calculated for hidden Markov processes.
Study uses AI and ML to predict and optimize corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys.
problem Corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys in marine environments.
method Investigated two ML approaches: direct and inverse, using Random Forest, neural network, and Gaussian Process Regression.
result Gaussian Process Regression with hybrid kernel functions provided superior predictive performance.
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.
Paper assesses error estimates of Random Forests classification.
problem Quantitative assessment of Random Forests error estimates.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of various error estimation methods.
result Random Forests' error estimates are closer to true error rate than average prediction error.
Recommender systems are widely used to predict personalized preferences of goods or services using users' past activities, such as item ratings or purchase histories. If collections of such personal activities were made publicly available, they could be used to personalize a diverse range of services, including targete…
Rating platforms enable large-scale collection of user opinion about items (products, other users, etc.). However, many untrustworthy users give fraudulent ratings for excessive monetary gains. In the paper, we present FairJudge, a system to identify such fraudulent users. We propose three metrics: (i) the fairness of …
Survey examines machine learning for credit rating predictions.
problem Manual loan approvals are slow and error-prone.
method Examines sentiment analysis techniques in credit rating.
result Machine learning improves credit rating predictions.
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
problem Noisy hyper-parameter tuning from limited labeled data.
method Semi-supervised calibration using unlabeled data to tune hyper-parameters rigorously.
result Improves prediction accuracy without sacrificing statistical validity.
Recommender systems recommend items more accurately by analyzing users' potential interest on different brands' items. In conjunction with users' rating similarity, the presence of users' implicit feedbacks like clicking items, viewing items specifications, watching videos etc. have been proved to be helpful for learni…