Generative model for joint discrete distributions using randomized assignment flows.
problem Efficiently representing and sampling from complex joint distributions of discrete variables.
method Randomized assignment flows on the statistical submanifold of factorizing distributions.
result Our model can efficiently represent and sample from any target distribution and assess likelihood of unseen data points.
New method certifies deep graph classifiers with tighter risk bounds.
problem Certifying the reliability of deep graph classifiers.
method Linearized deep assignment flows with random initial conditions, using PAC-Bayes risk certification.
result Computes tighter out-of-sample risk certificates efficiently.
Shapley Flow interprets model predictions using a graph-based approach to feature importance.
problem Existing feature importance methods ignore or hide feature dependencies.
method Shapley Flow considers the entire causal graph and assigns credit to edges.
result Shapley Flow provides a deeper, graph-based view of feature importance.
Delta-AI speeds up inference in sparse PGMs by local credit assignment.
problem Efficient inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models.
method Local credit assignment in agent's policy learning objective.
result Trained sampler recovers marginals and conditional distributions.
We present an alternate formulation of the partial assignment problem as matching random clique complexes, that are higher-order analogues of random graphs, designed to provide a set of invariants that better detect higher-order structure. The proposed method creates random clique adjacency matrices for each k-skeleton…
Paper proposes a new generative model for discrete distributions using flows on submanifolds.
problem Discretization issues and complex statistical dependencies in discrete data.
method Continuous normalizing flows on factorizing discrete measures, geodesic flow matching.
result Efficient training and broad applicability demonstrated through experiments.
New methods optimize personalized treatment assignment in trials with many arms.
problem Poor performance of standard methods in trials with many treatment arms.
method Regularized and clustered joint assignment forest algorithm.
result Gains in predicting arm-wise outcomes and utility gains from personalization.
New study shows low-degree polynomial algorithms struggle at clause densities close to Fix's.
problem Finding satisfying assignments in random k-SAT formulas at high clause densities.
method Analysis of low-degree polynomial algorithms and a new many-way overlap gap property.
result No efficient algorithms can find satisfying assignments at clause densities close to Fix's.
New method combines randomization tests and flexible models for valid inference without splitting data.
problem Valid inference in randomized panel experiments with complex effect heterogeneity.
method Model-assisted randomization tests that estimate unsigned CATE from residualized outcomes.
result CATE-assisted tests control Type I error and achieve higher power than alternatives.
Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.
problem Understanding how a treatment affects an outcome through intermediate variables.
method Proposes a test to evaluate full mediation and causal mechanism identification, extending to non-randomly assigned treatments.
result A conditionally random treatment is conditionally independent of the outcome given mediators and covariates if full mediation and causal mechanism identification hold.
Proposes rounding method for precise treatment effect estimation under budget constraints.
problem Resource-constrained experimental design for precise treatment effect estimation.
method Dependent randomized rounding procedure to convert assignment probabilities into binary treatment decisions.
result Improved estimator precision through variance reduction and efficient inference.
Study optimizes insurance liability cash flows with regulatory capital requirements.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities under regulatory capital constraints.
method Multiple-prior optimal stopping theory applied to insurance liabilities, considering hypothetical transfer and repeated capital requirements.
result Proposes a valuation functional for non-replicable cash flows, incorporating a margin for regulatory capital considerations.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Algorithm solves job acceptance problem with random arrivals and values.
problem Decision-making under random job arrivals and values with limited acceptance.
method Proposes Non-Parametric Sequential Allocation (NPSA) algorithm.
result Expected reward converges to optimality as sample size increases.
The study focuses on estimating and predicting time-varying origin to destination (OD) trip tables for a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model. A bi-level optimisation problem is formulated and solved to estimate OD flows from pre-existent demand matrix and historical traffic flow counts. The estimated demand is then …
This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the assignment to the treatment can be assumed to be randomized (irregular assignment mechan…
We present a method to estimate block membership of nodes in a random graph generated by a stochastic blockmodel. We use an embedding procedure motivated by the random dot product graph model, a particular example of the latent position model. The embedding associates each node with a vector; these vectors are clustere…
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced p-EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay. result Stochastic convergence guarantees for p-EMA under mild assumptions. This paper studies the problem of inferring a global preference based on the partial rankings provided by many users over different subsets of items according to the Plackett-Luce model. A question of particular interest is how to optimally assign items to users for ranking and how many item assignments are needed to a…
In this work we study the degree distribution, the maximum vertex and edge flow in non-uniform random Delaunay triangulations when geodesic routing is used. We also investigate the vertex and edge flow in Erdös-Renyi random graphs, geometric random graphs, expanders and random k-regular graphs. Moreover we show that …
Developed a random walk analog of geodesic flow on hyperbolic groups.
problem Geodesic flow on hyperbolic groups due to non-uniqueness of geodesics.
method Introduced a new framework using random walks and bi-infinite trajectories.
result Established ergodicity of the randomized geodesic flow and exponential mixing.
This letter investigates a channel assignment problem in uplink wireless communication systems. Our goal is to maximize the sum rate of all users subject to integer channel assignment constraints. A convex optimization based algorithm is provided to obtain the optimal channel assignment, where the closed-form solution …
We consider the problem of automated assignment of papers to reviewers in conference peer review, with a focus on fairness and statistical accuracy. Our fairness objective is to maximize the review quality of the most disadvantaged paper, in contrast to the commonly used objective of maximizing the total quality over a…
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
Several algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems are based on survey propagation, a variational inference scheme used to obtain approximate marginal probability estimates for variable assignments. These marginals correspond to how frequently each variable is set to true among satisfying assignments, and …
Normalizing flows fail to detect OOD data due to learning local pixel correlations.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution data in machine learning systems.
method Investigated why normalizing flows fail to distinguish between in- and out-of-distribution data, and modified flow architecture to improve OOD detection.
result Modifying flow architecture can improve OOD detection by biasing the flow towards learning semantic structure of the target data.
Bandlimited random neural networks may not approximate all functions perfectly.
problem Expressive power of shallow neural networks with bandlimited random weights.
method Ridgelet analysis for deriving approximation error lower bounds.
result Bandlimited random weights can lead to non-zero approximation error.
Designs for allocating resources to prioritize needy applicants while estimating treatment effects.
problem Resource allocation under uncertainty with prioritized queues.
method Priority-queue randomization for treatment assignment and estimation of treatment effects.
result Identification of causal effects under different arrival and treatment assignment scenarios.
A weighted random survival forest is presented in the paper. It can be regarded as a modification of the random forest improving its performance. The main idea underlying the proposed model is to replace the standard procedure of averaging used for estimation of the random survival forest hazard function by weighted av…
Improved GFlowNets learn more efficiently with trajectory balance.
problem Inefficient credit assignment in GFlowNets leads to suboptimal learning.
method Proposed trajectory balance as a new learning objective.
result Trajectory balance leads to more efficient and robust GFlowNet learning.
Spectral clustering is a widely studied problem, yet its complexity is prohibitive for dynamic graphs of even modest size. We claim that it is possible to reuse information of past cluster assignments to expedite computation. Our approach builds on a recent idea of sidestepping the main bottleneck of spectral clusterin…
Method learns optimal treatment policies from observational data.
problem Learning interpretable treatment assignment policies from observational data.
method Mixed-integer optimization (MIO) technology.
result Asymptotically exact in converging to optimal treatment policies.
High dimensional data often contain multiple facets, and several clustering patterns can co-exist under different variable subspaces, also known as the views. While multi-view clustering algorithms were proposed, the uncertainty quantification remains difficult --- a particular challenge is in the high complexity of es…
In this work, we propose the kernel Pitman-Yor process (KPYP) for nonparametric clustering of data with general spatial or temporal interdependencies. The KPYP is constructed by first introducing an infinite sequence of random locations. Then, based on the stick-breaking construction of the Pitman-Yor process, we defin…
Normalized nonnegative models assign probability distributions to users and random variables to items; see [Stark, 2015]. Rating an item is regarded as sampling the random variable assigned to the item with respect to the distribution assigned to the user who rates the item. Models of that kind are highly expressive. F…
Customer scoring models are the core of scalable direct marketing. Uplift models provide an estimate of the incremental benefit from a treatment that is used for operational decision-making. Training and monitoring of uplift models require experimental data. However, the collection of data under randomized treatment as…
This paper explores the possibility of near-optimally solving multi-agent, multi-task NP-hard planning problems with time-dependent rewards using a learning-based algorithm. In particular, we consider a class of robot/machine scheduling problems called the multi-robot reward collection problem (MRRC). Such MRRC problem…
Study geodesics on graphs with random lengths, proving bi-infinite paths exist.
problem Existence of bi-infinite geodesic paths on graphs with random edge lengths.
method Sublinear Morse geodesics and first passage percolation analysis.
result Proves the existence of bi-infinite geodesic paths in graphs with specific properties.
We use the Chebyshev knot diagram model of Koseleff and Pecker in order to introduce a random knot diagram model by assigning the crossings to be positive or negative uniformly at random. We give a formula for the probability of choosing a knot at random among all knots with bridge index at most 2. Restricted to this c…
Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) are performed to evaluate treatment assignment functions. However, such…
Sharp-SSL uses random projections to identify important variables for semi-supervised learning.
problem High-dimensional semi-supervised learning problems.
method Careful aggregation of low-dimensional results from many axis-aligned random projections.
result Sharp-SSL algorithm can recover signal coordinates with high probability.
The study connects geodesic flows on Riemann surfaces to random walks on their dual graphs.
problem Understanding ergodicity of geodesic flows on infinite Riemann surfaces.
method Analyzing random walks on the dual graph of pants decompositions.
result Equivalence between ergodicity of geodesic flows and recurrence of random walks.
Unified theory of optimal transport for random measures.
problem Statistical uncertainty in optimal transport.
method Constructing L2 over Wasserstein space for random probability measures. result Unified treatment of random optimal transport and principled inference.
Autoregressive models are among the best performing neural density estimators. We describe an approach for increasing the flexibility of an autoregressive model, based on modelling the random numbers that the model uses internally when generating data. By constructing a stack of autoregressive models, each modelling th…
This work extends the randomized shortest paths (RSP) model by investigating the net flow RSP and adding capacity constraints on edge flows. The standard RSP is a model of movement, or spread, through a network interpolating between a random-walk and a shortest-path behavior [30, 42, 49]. The framework assumes a unit f…
New algorithm balances user reward and statistical inference by mixing TS with UR based on difference size.
problem Combining statistical inference with user reward in adaptive experiments.
method TS-PostDiff algorithm that uses UR when differences are small and TS when large.
result TS-PostDiff reduces false positives and increases statistical power for small differences, while maximizing reward for large ones.
In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market then determines the overall magnitude of asset volatility. By letting this inform…