Neural networks approximate random utility models for choice prediction.
problem Approximating random utility models with neural networks.
method RUMnets, a neural network-based model inspired by RUM framework.
result RUMnets can approximate any RUM model arbitrarily closely and vice versa.
We introduce sparse random projection, an important dimension-reduction tool from machine learning, for the estimation of discrete-choice models with high-dimensional choice sets. Initially, high-dimensional data are compressed into a lower-dimensional Euclidean space using random projections. Subsequently, estimation …
Random Machines improves SVM performance with free kernel choice.
problem Efficiency and accuracy in solving classification and regression problems.
method Bagged-weighted support vector model with free kernel choice.
result Improved accuracy and reduced computational time.
Paper improves anomaly detection by using non-uniform random choices in isolation forests.
problem Detecting clustered diverse outliers more effectively.
method Comparing different split guiding criteria in isolation forests.
result Non-uniform random choices improve outlier discrimination for certain outlier classes.
Binary choice forests model customer choices in retailing.
problem Estimating DCMs using transaction data is challenging and prone to misspecification.
method Random forest of binary decision trees to represent DCMs, interpretable and consistent predictions.
result Random forest can predict choice probabilities and assortments unseen in training data.
Researchers develop a model to detect context effects in choice data.
problem Context affects individual choices and judgments, contrary to utility maximization models.
method Developed a context-dependent random utility model (CDM) to analyze choice data.
result The CDM can detect choice set effects and is interpretable.
Data-driven approaches outperform random choices in multi-label classification with Naive Bayes.
problem Improving multi-label classification performance with Naive Bayes classifiers.
method Comparison of data-driven, a priori, and random approaches on 12 benchmark datasets.
result Data-driven methods significantly outperform random baselines on F1 scores and Subset Accuracy.
The paper tackles scalable simulation of discrete random variables.
problem Simulating discrete random variables with general and varying distributions in a scalable framework.
method Inspired by discrete choice models, the paper introduces parallelized randomness and a single associative operation for simulation.
result Characterization of algorithms for scalable simulation of discrete random variables.
Study evaluates RKHS choices for assessing graph models using KSD tests.
problem Effect of RKHS choice on KSD tests for graph model assessment.
method Investigated power performance and computational runtime of KSD tests for ERGMs and synthetic graph generators.
result Different RKHS choices affect KSD test performance and computational runtime.
New method achieves faster calibration without randomization.
problem Calibrating probabilistic forecasts in adversarial settings.
method Using interval forecasts and the power of two choices.
result Achieves O(1/T) calibration error rate without randomization. New model captures intransitive preferences without concave likelihood.
problem Complex human choices not accounted for by traditional models.
method Inspired by Condorcet method, Majority Vote model using RUMs.
result Three-dimensional model can represent strong, long intransitive cycles.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel…
This document is an invited chapter covering the specificities of ABC model choice, intended for the incoming Handbook of ABC by Sisson, Fan, and Beaumont (2017). Beyond exposing the potential pitfalls of ABC based posterior probabilities, the review emphasizes mostly the solution proposed by Pudlo et al. (2016) on the…
This paper explores the impact of metric choice on Fréchet regression.
problem Choosing the right metric for Fréchet regression in complex data.
method Review and extensive numerical studies of existing dimension reduction methods.
result Different metrics significantly affect the estimation of central and central mean space.
Best-choice edge grafting speeds up MRF structure learning.
problem Efficiently learning the structure of Markov random fields (MRFs) in a scalable manner.
method Incremental, structured approach that activates edges in groups of features.
result Significant speedup in structure learning with a controllable trade-off between speed and quality.
Paper characterizes MDM for consumer choice modeling and prediction.
problem Modeling consumer choice behavior with parsimonious models.
method Establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for MDM consistency.
result Characterization leads to exact set of representable choice probabilities.
New ensemble SVM model reduces prediction error without choosing best kernel.
problem Reducing prediction error in regression problems.
method Bagged-weighted support vector regression model with random machines.
result Regression Random Machines achieve lower generalization error.
Extends randomized smoothing to certify robustness against various threat models and adversarial perturbations.
problem Certifying robustness of classifiers against adversarial perturbations.
method Develops a method to certify robustness against any ℓp (p∈N>0) minimized adversarial perturbation. result Randomized smoothing suffers from the curse of dimensionality, reducing effective radius as p increases. A new model uses neural networks for consistent discrete choice analysis.
problem Difficulties in specifying utility functions in RUM models.
method Alternative-Specific and Shared weights Neural Network (ASS-NN) model.
result ASS-NN provides consistent outcomes without specifying utility form.
Random feature maps improve forecasting with cheaper computation.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy with random feature maps.
method Developed a hit-and-run algorithm to select optimal internal weights.
result Optimal internal weights lead to superior forecasting skill.
The study estimates how changing words in sentences affects audience perception.
problem Estimating the causal effect of lexical choice on audience perception.
method Two classes of methods: quasi-experimental designs and classification problems.
result Algorithmic estimates align with randomized-control trials and can be transferred across domains.
We introduce Neural Choice by Elimination, a new framework that integrates deep neural networks into probabilistic sequential choice models for learning to rank. Given a set of items to chose from, the elimination strategy starts with the whole item set and iteratively eliminates the least worthy item in the remaining …
A version of indifference valuation of a European call option is proposed that includes statistical regularities of nonstochastic randomness. Classical relations (forward contract value and Black-Scholes formula) are obtained as particular cases. We show that in the general case of nonstochastic randomness the minimal …
Study uses three sources to evaluate language models fairly.
problem Bias in offline model evaluation due to confounded model choice.
method Combines observational logs, randomized experiments, and simulators.
result Randomized experiment and simulator together recover causal model values.
This paper analyzes and improves convergence in federated learning with biased client selection.
problem Analyzing convergence in federated learning with biased client selection.
method First convergence analysis of federated optimization for biased client selection strategies, proposing Power-of-Choice framework.
result Power-of-Choice strategies converge up to 3 times faster and give 10% higher test accuracy than random selection.
Graph neural networks improve residential location choice predictions.
problem Capturing spatial dependence in discrete choice models.
method Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for analyzing spatial alternatives.
result GNN-DCMs outperform classical models in residential location choice predictions.
RUMBoost combines RUMs and deep learning for better choice modelling.
problem Creating interpretable and robust discrete choice models.
method Gradient Boosted Regression Trees for utility functions, with constraints for interpretability and monotonicity.
result RUMBoost outperforms ML and RUM benchmarks in predictive performance and interpretability.
Study optimal portfolio for households with two goals: random and fixed deadlines.
problem Optimal portfolio choice for households managing random and fixed deadlines.
method Maximizes weighted sum of probabilities of funding both goals in a Black-Scholes market.
result Non-monotonic value function due to interaction between goals under forced funding.
New random models improve clustering similarity assessment.
problem Improper random models affect clustering similarity assessments.
method Derived corrected Rand index and Mutual Information measures for varying cluster sizes.
result Random model choice drastically impacts clustering similarity rankings.
Study improves choice model accuracy and heterogeneity representation using mixture models.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and heterogeneity representation in choice models.
method Semi-nonparametric Latent Class Choice Model with mixture models and EM algorithm.
result Mixture models enhance prediction accuracy and heterogeneity representation without sacrificing interpretability.
The prospects of Kahneman and Tversky, Mega Million and Powerball lotteries, St. Petersburg paradox, premature profits and growing losses criticized by Livermore are reviewed under an angle of view comparing mathematical expectations with awards received. Original prospects have been formulated as a one time opportunit…
ARFF reduces spectral bias in SGD-trained neural networks.
problem Spectral bias in two-layer neural networks.
method Comparison of SGD and ARFF on spectral bias and robustness.
result ARFF yields a closer to zero spectral bias compared to SGD.
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the prior specified by a gamma process. We derive a posterior characterization and a simple and effective Gibbs…
In this paper I present an extended implementation of the Random ferns algorithm contained in the R package rFerns. It differs from the original by the ability of consuming categorical and numerical attributes instead of only binary ones. Also, instead of using simple attribute subspace ensemble it employs bagging and …
Proposes new methods for Markov chain choice models with panel data.
problem Dependence among transactions for the same customer in historical data.
method Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms incorporating partial-ordering preference information.
result EM algorithms outperform traditional methods on synthetic and real datasets.
We consider the SO(3) Witten-Reshetikhin-Turaev quantum invariants of random 3-manifolds. When the level r is prime, we show that the asymptotic distribution of the absolute value of these invariants is given by the standard Rayleigh distribution and independent of the choice of level. Hence the probability that the qu…
This work creates a deep autoencoding model to interpret graph parameters.
problem Matching observed graph topologies with generative procedures and parameters is challenging.
method Developed a disentanglement-focused Beta-Variational Autoencoder (Beta-VAE) model.
result The model learns disentangled latent variables that represent graph parameters.
Proposes a new model to predict irrational customer behavior.
problem Irrational customer behavior in decision-making.
method Nonparametric choice model using decision trees and probability distributions.
result Decision forest model accurately predicts non-rational customer behavior.
Alt-GNNs improve travel mode choice modeling by integrating graph neural networks with GEV models.
problem Capturing alternative dependence in discrete choice models with predefined, symmetric, and uniform dependence.
method Introducing Alternative Graph Neural Networks (Alt-GNNs) that embed alternative dependence within a unified framework.
result Alt-GNNs significantly improve predictive performance over benchmark models in travel mode choice datasets.
Paper generalizes Markov chain model to handle dynamic preferences and choice overload.
problem Modeling dynamic customer substitution behavior in assortment optimization.
method Generalizes Markov chain model to account for choice overload.
result Proposes a Markov chain model that reduces to a generalized MNL model with assortment-dependent no-purchase attractions.
The Random Parameters model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore other properties of the model, like the scaling of its PDF as one take larger …
Defines g-expectation of distributions and its applications.
problem Defining g-expectation of distributions. method Two special cases of nonlinear g and law-invariant g-expectation. result Explicit derivation of g-expectation of distributions. Active learning recovers choice model from noisy data.
problem Identifying non-parametric choice models from noisy data.
method Directed acyclic graph (DAG) representation and inclusion-exclusion approach.
result Algorithm more accurately recovers frequent preferences.
Paper proposes diagnostics for error and variance estimation in randomized matrix computations.
problem Safe use of randomized matrix algorithms in applications.
method Leave-one-out error estimator and jackknife resampling method.
result Provides rapid diagnostics to assess quality of randomized matrix computations.
GBS uses machine learning to design products based on consumer preferences.
problem Designing products to meet consumer preferences.
method GBS is a discrete choice experiment that uses machine learning to adaptively construct paired comparison questions.
result GBS outperforms existing methods in accuracy and sample efficiency.
Domain randomization improves RL policy performance on real robots by optimizing distribution parameters.
problem Improving RL policy performance on real robots using domain randomization.
method Optimizing the form and parameters of the distribution of simulated environments.
result Optimized distribution parameters significantly enhance policy performance in the real world.
Paper introduces Functional Effects Models to account for individual heterogeneity in panel data.
problem Accounting for preference heterogeneity in panel data with machine learning.
method Functional Effects Models using gradient boosting decision trees and deep neural networks to learn individual-specific preference parameters.
result Functional Effects Models outperform traditional models in learning inter-individual heterogeneity and predictive performance.
Study finds color-coded DMSs improve driver behavior.
problem Improving driver behavior through dynamic message signs.
method Random forest algorithm for route diversion, choice, and compliance analyses.
result Color-coded DMSs are more effective than alphanumeric ones.