CP-ROC bands improve graph classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distributional shifts in graph classification.
method Conditional Prediction ROC (CP-ROC) bands for graph classification, developed for TGNNs and adaptable to GNNs.
result Statistically guaranteed coverage for CP-ROC under local exchangeability condition, improving prediction reliability.
Novel method for multiclass ROC curves using multidimensional Gini index.
problem Multiclass performance evaluation, especially for imbalanced datasets.
method Extends ROC curve methodology to multiclass settings using multidimensional Gini index.
result Validated through case studies in health care and finance.
Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve (AUC) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary classification problems. Despite its immense popularity, ROC analysis has been su…
The study improves the assessment of fairness in face recognition using ROC curves and statistical guarantees.
problem Improving the assessment of fairness in face recognition systems.
method Proves asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves and fairness metrics, and introduces a recentering technique to avoid bootstrap pitfalls.
result Demonstrates the practical relevance of the methods for assessing fairness in face recognition systems.
The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a representation of the statistical information discovered in binary classification problems and is a key concept in machine learning and data science. This paper studies the statistical properties of ROC curves and its implication on model selection. We analyze the …
Proposes MCC-F1 curve for better binary classification evaluation.
problem Misleading performance evaluations with ROC and PR curves for imbalanced data.
method Introduces MCC-F1 curve combining MCC and F1 score.
result MCC-F1 curve provides clearer classifier differentiation.
Paper estimates optimal ROC curve arc length and AUC, improving classification performance.
problem Estimating optimal ROC curve arc length and AUC in imbalanced binary classification.
method Expresses arc length and AUC as variational objectives, estimating using positive and negative samples.
result Proposed classification procedure maximizes an approximate lower bound of maximal AUC.
New optimization method improves AUC for binary classification and changepoint detection.
problem Non-convex AUC and sub-optimal points in ROC curves.
method AUM (Area Under Min(FP, FN)) surrogate loss function based on sorting and summing ROC curve points.
result AUM minimization learning algorithm improves AUC and speeds up compared to previous methods.
Modified AUC improves CNN training by considering model confidence.
problem Improving binary classifier performance metrics.
method Proposes a modified AUC metric that incorporates model confidence into BCE loss for CNN training.
result Demonstrates improved performance on three datasets: MNIST, prostate MRI, and brain MRI.
Many problems that appear in biomedical decision making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The costs of false positives and false negatives vary across application domains and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a visu…
Neural network models improve ROC curve evaluation of biomarkers, focusing on age's role in physical activity-mortality association.
problem Improving biomarker evaluation using machine learning for complex relationships.
method Proposes neural network-based covariate-adjusted ROC modeling.
result Age has distinct effects on mortality outcomes when physical activity is measured as total activity time.
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is widely used for evaluating diagnostic systems. Recent studies have shown that estimating an area under ROC curve (AUC) with standard cross-validation methods suffers from a large bias. The leave-pair-out (LPO) cross-validation has been shown to correct this bias. Howe…
ABROCA assesses algorithmic bias, revealing skewed distributions that inflate results.
problem Detecting nuanced performance differences in classifier fairness.
method Study of ABROCA metric's statistical properties under various conditions.
result ABROCA distributions are skewed, inflating results by chance in imbalanced classes.
Geometric analysis of ROC and PR curves for binary classification.
problem Understanding classifier behavior and selection of optimal operating points.
method Geometric perspective on ROC and PR curves, focusing on the composition function G. result Many binary classification metrics are functions of G=Fp∘Fn−1, facilitating better classifier optimization. The fuzzy ROC extends Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) visualization to the situation where some data points, falling in an indeterminacy region, are not classified. It addresses two challenges: definition of sensitivity and specificity bounds under indeterminacy; and visual summarization of the large number of possibili…
The ROC curve is widely used to assess the quality of prediction/classification/ranking algorithms, and its properties have been extensively studied. The precision-recall (PR) curve has become the de facto replacement for the ROC curve in the presence of imbalance, namely where one class is far more likely than the oth…
The paper tackles fairness in scoring functions for binary classification.
problem Fairness in scoring functions for binary classification tasks.
method Introduces ROC-based fairness constraints and learning algorithms.
result Generalization bounds and practical learning algorithms for fair scoring functions.
A scalable ROC-SVM variant reduces training time for imbalanced binary classification.
problem High computational cost of ROC-SVM for imbalanced binary classification.
method Incomplete U-statistics and low-rank kernel approximation.
result Comparable AUC performance with reduced training time.
We investigate a long-debated question, which is how to create predictive models of recidivism that are sufficiently accurate, transparent, and interpretable to use for decision-making. This question is complicated as these models are used to support different decisions, from sentencing, to determining release on proba…
Unified four trade-off curves for assessing generative model proximity.
problem Quantitative assessment of proximity between two probability distributions.
method Unified four existing curves: PR, Lorenz, ROC, and Rényi divergence frontiers.
result Explicit relationship between PR and Lorenz curves with domain adaptation bounds.
Proposes and evaluates three diagnostic graphics for probabilistic classifiers.
problem Evaluating and comparing probabilistic classifiers.
method Triptych of diagnostic graphics: reliability diagram, ROC curve, Murphy diagram.
result Visual diagnostics reveal distinct aspects of forecast performance.
New algorithm optimizes AUC in binary classification and changepoint detection.
problem Difficult to optimize AUC in binary classification and changepoint detection.
method Proposes efficient path-following algorithms for choosing optimal learning rate.
result Proposed line search algorithm computes complete AUM/AUC representation.
Deep ROC analysis improves model selection and interpretation in medical and AI applications.
problem Inadequate performance measures for binary classifiers.
method Deep ROC analysis, translating AUC and partial AUC into balanced average accuracy and post-test measures.
result Deep ROC analysis provides balanced average accuracy, average sensitivity, and average specificity.
The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is a widely used performance measure in machine learning. Increasingly, however, in several applications, ranging from ranking to biometric screening to medicine, performance is measured not in terms of the full area under the ROC curve, but in terms of the \emph{partial} area under t…
AUC used as a measure of clustering quality in unsupervised learning.
problem Using AUC to evaluate clustering quality in unsupervised learning.
method Developed AUCC as a measure of clustering quality, derived theoretical expected values, and compared with Gamma criterion.
result AUCC has a consistent expected value under random clustering, making it a reliable measure.
When sufficient labeled data are available, classical criteria based on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) or Precision-Recall (PR) curves can be used to compare the performance of un-supervised anomaly detection algorithms. However , in many situations, few or no data are labeled. This calls for alternative crite…
The study examines how verifier imperfections impact test-time scaling techniques.
problem Understanding how verifier imperfections affect test-time scaling methods.
method Proves the instance-level accuracy of Best-of-N and Rejection Sampling methods using the geometry of the verifier's ROC curve.
result RS outperforms BoN for fixed compute, but both converge to the same accuracy in the infinite-compute limit.
Study finds AUC is most consistent across different prevalence in binary classification.
problem Consistency of model evaluation metrics across varying prevalence in binary classification.
method Analysis of 156 data scenarios with 18 metrics, 5 models, and a random guess model.
result AUC has the smallest variance in evaluating individual models and ranking of models.
Feature selection aims to select the smallest subset of features for a specified level of performance. The optimal achievable classification performance on a feature subset is summarized by its Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). When infinite data is available, the Neyman- Pearson (NP) design procedure provides the most e…
Assessing the performance of a learned model is a crucial part of machine learning. However, in some domains only positive and unlabeled examples are available, which prohibits the use of most standard evaluation metrics. We propose an approach to estimate any metric based on contingency tables, including ROC and PR cu…
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
The paper proposes a test to assess rater accuracy while accounting for rater covariates.
problem Assessing the accuracy of raters in medical imaging and forensic studies.
method Covariate-adjusted homogeneity test to determine differences in accuracy among multiple rater groups.
result The proposed test identifies statistically significant differences among five participant groups in a face recognition study.
New method tests independence using ROC analysis and bipartite ranking.
problem Testing independence of two random variables with unknown marginals.
method Nonparametric framework based on ROC analysis and bipartite ranking.
result The method detects small departures from independence in high dimensions.
Paper proposes a new algorithm to minimize AUC disparities in machine learning models.
problem Minimizing unfairness in AUC scores for machine learning models.
method Proposes a minimax learning and bias mitigation framework for AUC optimization.
result Proves the convergence of the proposed algorithm to minimize group-level AUC.
Develops a new method for statistical optimal allocation problems.
problem Statistical optimal allocation problems with constraints.
method Functional differentiability approach and Hadamard differentiability of value functions.
result Validates margin assumption for fast convergence rate of plug-in methods.
Paper introduces ILD algorithm to determine Bayes error for binary classification.
problem Determining the best possible performance in binary classification problems.
method Model-agnostic ILD algorithm to calculate Bayes error.
result Provides intrinsic limits of any binary classification algorithm.
Most binary classifiers work by processing the input to produce a scalar response and comparing it to a threshold value. The various measures of classifier performance assume, explicitly or implicitly, probability distributions Ps and Pn of the response belonging to either class, probability distributions for the…
New bounds for Neyman-Pearson region using f-divergences.
problem Bounding the Neyman-Pearson region for hypothesis testing.
method Establishing novel lower and upper bounds using f-divergences. result Best possible lower bound for the Neyman-Pearson boundary using hockey-stick f-divergences. Rapid overlay of chemical structures (ROCS) is a standard tool for the calculation of 3D shape and chemical ("color") similarity. ROCS uses unweighted sums to combine many aspects of similarity, yielding parameter-free models for virtual screening. In this report, we decompose the ROCS color force field into "color com…
Paper introduces new metrics for evaluating model accuracy.
problem Improving model accuracy and calibration.
method Developed two second-order accuracy metrics with integral and numerical representations.
result Validates model calibration settings and reveals distortions.
Proposes a new tree-based algorithm for class-imbalanced data.
problem Classification of imbalanced data.
method Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) classification tree algorithm.
result The PRC classification tree outperforms classic algorithms for class-imbalanced data.
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is continuous and there is no confirmative threshold, ROC curve becomes less useful…
Optimizes partial AUC across various FPRs for machine learning models.
problem Lack of scalable algorithms for optimizing partial AUC in a range of FPRs.
method Formulated as a non-smooth DC program, developed an efficient approximated gradient descent method using Moreau envelope smoothing.
result Achieved a complexity of O(1/ε6) for finding nearly ε-critical solutions. Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
We show how to compute the Bayes error-rate for speaker verifiers.
problem How many errors does a speaker verifier make in a hundred trials?
method We compute the Bayes error-rate using calibrated likelihood ratios and user-supplied prior probabilities.
result The Bayes error-rate is upper bounded by the minimum of EER, P, and 1-P.
The paper proves concentration inequalities for two-sample rank processes and applies them to ranking performance criteria.
problem Measuring the performance of ranking statistics between two populations.
method Proves concentration inequalities for two-sample rank processes indexed by VC classes of scoring functions.
result Generalization capacity of empirical maximizers of ranking performance criteria is investigated.
This paper visualizes uncertainty in classifier performance metrics.
problem Overemphasis on model performance metrics risks overlooking uncertainty.
method Developed visualizations of confusion matrix metric distributions.
result Uncertainty in performance metrics can overshadow model differences.
Training classification models on imbalanced data tends to result in bias towards the majority class. In this paper, we demonstrate how variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression help mitigate this bias on an imbalanced credit scoring dataset, and further show the application of the variable discret…