A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The book explores essential stats and psychology for quantitative trading.
NSR enables neural networks to reason with continuous numbers and extrapolate.
EQD model improves domain-specific QA by 0.6% to 10.5%.
Compound interest as well as inflation grows exponentially with time, whereas other means to repay debt grow polynomially. For this and other, mostly political, reasons, debt without inflation is unsustainable. We suggest a discontinuous way to eliminate debt by nullifying it. This scenario is preferable to current cen…
Stories generated with neural language models have shown promise in grammatical and stylistic consistency. However, the generated stories are still lacking in common sense reasoning, e.g., they often contain sentences deprived of world knowledge. We propose a simple multi-task learning scheme to achieve quantitatively …
Study shows GPT's earnings forecasts are human-like but not always accurate.
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to considering a finite horizon framework. However, assuming infinite exchangeability gives…
Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.
AlphaForgeBench evaluates LLMs as quantitative researchers, not trading agents, to address instability in financial decision-making.
Benchmark assesses LLMs' causal inference skills, revealing significant limitations.
Although deep learning models have been successfully applied to a variety of tasks, due to the millions of parameters, they are becoming increasingly opaque and complex. In order to establish trust for their widespread commercial use, it is important to formalize a principled framework to reason over these models. In t…
We present the Bayesian Case Model (BCM), a general framework for Bayesian case-based reasoning (CBR) and prototype classification and clustering. BCM brings the intuitive power of CBR to a Bayesian generative framework. The BCM learns prototypes, the "quintessential" observations that best represent clusters in a data…
This paper illustrates a procedure for fitting financial data with -stable distributions. After using all the available methods to evaluate the distribution parameters, one can qualitatively select the best estimate and run some goodness-of-fit tests on this estimate, in order to quantitatively assess its quality. I…
New language model shows context length impacts generation quality and reasoning ability.
Quantitatively predicting phenotype variables by the expression changes in a set of candidate genes is of great interest in molecular biology but it is also a challenging task for several reasons. First, the collected biological observations might be heterogeneous and correspond to different biological mechanisms. Seco…
PDA method optimizes neural networks with global convergence rate analysis.
One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always feasible and…
SpArX creates faithful explanations of neural networks' decision-making.
In order to study the phenomenon in detail that income distribution follows Pareto law, we analyze the database of high income companies in Japan. We find a quantitative relation between the average capital of the companies and the Pareto index. The larger the average capital becomes, the smaller the Pareto index becom…
Humans are able to explain their reasoning. On the contrary, deep neural networks are not. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by introducing a new way to design interpretable neural networks for classification, inspired by physiological evidence of the human visual system's inner-workings. This paper proposes a neu…
ARTEMIS combines deep learning and symbolic reasoning for financial predictions.
Following a review of metric, ultrametric and generalized ultrametric, we review their application in data analysis. We show how they allow us to explore both geometry and topology of information, starting with measured data. Some themes are then developed based on the use of metric, ultrametric and generalized ultrame…
New pricing theory solves St. Petersburg paradox.
Many studies have shown that there are good reasons to claim very low predictability of currency nevertheless, the deviations from true randomness exist which have potential predictive and prognostic power [J.James, Quantitative finance 3 (2003) C75-C77]. We analyze the local trends which are of the main focus of the t…
Financial statements contain quantitative information and manager's subjective evaluation of firm's financial status. Using information released in U.S. 10-K filings. Both qualitative and quantitative appraisals are crucial for quality financial decisions. To extract such opinioned statements from the reports, we built…
Study benchmarks LLMs in portfolio optimization tasks.
Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.
Despite remarkable advances in automated visual recognition by machines, some visual tasks remain challenging for machines. Fleuret et al. (2011) introduced the Synthetic Visual Reasoning Test (SVRT) to highlight this point, which required classification of images consisting of randomly generated shapes based on hidden…
Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are one of the ambitious projects constructed to save fresh water. To finance this project, Conceptual cost models are important to accurately predict preliminary costs at the early stages of the project. The first step is to develop a conceptual cost model to identify key cost…
Strategic Workforce Planning is a company process providing best in class, economically sound, workforce management policies and goals. Despite the abundance of literature on the subject, this is a notorious challenge in terms of implementation. Reasons span from the youth of the field itself to broader data integratio…
Neuroscience is undergoing faster changes than ever before. Over 100 years our field qualitatively described and invasively manipulated single or few organisms to gain anatomical, physiological, and pharmacological insights. In the last 10 years neuroscience spawned quantitative big-sample datasets on microanatomy, syn…
Detects systematic anomalies in consumer complaints using NLP.
Qwen3-8B outperforms classical models in financial text classification.
Generative AI models enhance sector-based investment portfolios, but performance varies by market conditions.
Deep convolutional neural networks have achieved great successes over recent years, particularly in the domain of computer vision. They are fast, convenient, and -- thanks to mature frameworks -- relatively easy to implement and deploy. However, their reasoning is hidden inside a black box, in spite of a number of prop…
In this paper, we propose Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) architectures that use Capsule Networks for image-synthesis. Based on the principal of positional-equivariance of features, Capsule Network's ability to encode spatial relationships between the features of the image helps it become a more powerful critic in…
When quantitative models are used to support decision-making on complex and important topics, understanding a model's ``reasoning'' can increase trust in its predictions, expose hidden biases, or reduce vulnerability to adversarial attacks. However, the concept of interpretability remains loosely defined and applicatio…
We propose a method for learning cyclic causal models from a combination of observational and interventional equilibrium data. Novel aspects of the proposed method are its ability to work with continuous data (without assuming linearity) and to deal with feedback loops. Within the context of biochemical reactions, we a…
This paper combines LLMs with RL for better trading strategies.
In this paper, we give a proof of the quantitative Morse theorem stated by {Y. Yomdin} in \cite{Y1}. The proof is based on the quantitative Sard theorem, the quantitative inverse function theorem and the quantitative Morse lemma.
PandaAI: A practical agent for neuro-symbolic data analysis and decision-making in finance
Financial Wind Tunnel generates versatile market data for model testing.
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given \$25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61 young, quantitatively trained men and women to play this game. The results, in a nut…
Study shows how many domains are needed for generalization, using a new measure called domain shattering dimension.
Qlib aims to integrate AI into quantitative investment.
Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the 'Black-Scholes model' and the underlying 'random walk hypothesis'. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in abrupt transitions such as during an economical crisis, the random walk model fa…
This paper analyzes forecasting models for COVID-19 cases and deaths.
This paper defines less discriminatory algorithms and explores their feasibility.