A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.
Method estimates parameters for disease spread models robustly.
The paper studies dynamical systems with evolving geometric structure using numerical methods.
Study forecasts cholera outbreaks in Malawi using dynamic models.
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
Deep learning detects bifurcations in dynamical systems.
The study examines the dynamic behavior of RMSprop and Adam algorithms.
Predicting unobserved bifurcations in time series with unsupervised parameter extraction.
We propose and systematically evaluate three strategies for training dynamically-routed artificial neural networks: graphs of learned transformations through which different input signals may take different paths. Though some approaches have advantages over others, the resulting networks are often qualitatively similar…
Gradient descent dynamics in neural networks show quenching and activation phases.
This survey paper is focused on qualitative and numerical analyses of fully nonlinear partial differential equations of parabolic type arising in financial mathematics. The main purpose is to review various non-linear extensions of the classical Black-Scholes theory for pricing financial instruments, as well as models …
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
Study uses LLMs to improve financial forecasting by integrating textual and numerical data.
New method reveals insights about stochastic optimization methods using modified equations.
The Poincaré map is widely used to study the qualitative behavior of dynamical systems. For instance, it can be used to describe the existence of periodic solutions. The Poincaré map for dynamical systems with impulse effects was introduced in the last decade and mainly employed to study the existence of limit cycles (…
In this paper, we present a simple stock market model (the market game) which incorporates, as ab initio dynamics delayed majority dynamics, according to which agents (with heterogeneous strategies and price expectations) are rewarded if their actions at time t are the actions of the majority of agents at time t+1. We …
Study examines infinite limits of transformer dynamics, identifying key parameterizations.
In this paper we investigate the supervised backpropagation training of multilayer neural networks from a dynamical systems point of view. We discuss some links with the qualitative theory of differential equations and introduce the overfly algorithm to tackle the local minima problem. Our approach is based on the exis…
Denoising autoencoders (DAEs) have proven useful for unsupervised representation learning, but a thorough theoretical understanding is still lacking of how the input noise influences learning. Here we develop theory for how noise influences learning in DAEs. By focusing on linear DAEs, we are able to derive analytic ex…
New model explains price dynamics of Bitcoin with psychological factors.
In this article we investigate the dynamics of special solutions to the surface diffusion flow of idealised ribbons. This equation reduces to studying the curve diffusion flow for the profile curve of the ribbon. We provide: (1) a complete classification of stationary solutions; (2) qualitative results on shrinkers, tr…
Sentiment analysis from LLMs improves financial trading performance.
We review recent works on analyzing the dynamics of gradient-based algorithms in a prototypical statistical inference problem. Using methods and insights from the physics of glassy systems, these works showed how to understand quantitatively and qualitatively the performance of gradient-based algorithms. Here we review…
Study combines dynamic mode and wavelet decomposition for marketing time series analysis.
A new method clusters qualitative data with mixed variables, improving interpretability.
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market prices is modeled on a macro-level as the result of the dynamic coupling of two dyn…
The paper studies minimal resistance dynamics in radial fields, finding unique solutions for incompressible flows.
Reinsurance counterparty credit risk (RCCR) is the risk of a loss arising from the fact that a reinsurance company is unable to fulfill her contractual obligations towards the ceding insurer. RCCR is an important risk category for insurance companies which, so far, has been addressed mostly via qualitative approaches. …
We derive an analytic formula for the hydrodynamic Green function and the Robin function on every orientable surface admitting a hydrodynamic Killing vector field. Closed-form expressions are provided for all fourteen canonical Riemann surfaces, covering both compact and non-compact cases; the formulae satisfy the slip…
Study finds sales forecasters overreact to extreme news.
We study a monetary version of the Keen model by merging two alternative extensions, namely the addition of a dynamic price level and the introduction of speculation. We recall and study old and new equilibria, together with their local stability analysis. This includes a state of recession associated with a deflationa…
Computer simulations often involve both qualitative and numerical inputs. Existing Gaussian process (GP) methods for handling this mainly assume a different response surface for each combination of levels of the qualitative factors and relate them via a multiresponse cross-covariance matrix. We introduce a substantiall…
Study shows bifurcating price dynamics in ASME with traders.
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the `temperature' fluctuates slowly. The model generally yields a fat-tailed…
We present a theoretical and empirical study of the gradient dynamics of overparameterized shallow ReLU networks with one-dimensional input, solving least-squares interpolation. We show that the gradient dynamics of such networks are determined by the gradient flow in a non-redundant parameterization of the network fun…
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
We study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, correlation increases, and, at the same time, vari…
An ability to postpone one's execution without penalty provides an important strategic advantage in high-frequency trading. To elucidate competition between traders one has to formulate to a quantitative theory of formation of the execution price from market expectations and quotes. This theory was provided in 2005 by …
We investigate the dynamics of a trust game on a mixed population where individuals with the role of buyers are forced to play against a predetermined number of sellers, whom they choose dynamically. Agents with the role of sellers are also allowed to adapt the level of value for money of their products, based on payof…
This work studies the symmetry between colloidal dynamics and the dynamics of the Euro--US Dollar currency exchange market (EURUSD). We consider the EURUSD price in the time range between 2001 and 2015, where we find significant qualitative symmetry between fluctuation distributions from this market and the ones belong…
Analyzes learning dynamics of RNNs under locality constraints.
In this paper we present an end-to-end deep learning framework to turn images that show dynamic content, such as vehicles or pedestrians, into realistic static frames. This objective encounters two main challenges: detecting all the dynamic objects, and inpainting the static occluded background with plausible imagery. …
We formulate and study a novel multi-armed bandit problem called the qualitative dueling bandit (QDB) problem, where an agent observes not numeric but qualitative feedback by pulling each arm. We employ the same regret as the dueling bandit (DB) problem where the duel is carried out by comparing the qualitative feedbac…
Although Bayesian Optimization (BO) has been employed for accelerating materials design in computational materials engineering, existing works are restricted to problems with quantitative variables. However, real designs of materials systems involve both qualitative and quantitative design variables representing materi…
In this paper, we investigate risk minimization problem of derivatives based on non-tradable underlyings by means of dynamic g-expectations which are slight different from conditional g-expectations. In this framework, inspired by [1] and [16], we introduce risk indifference price, marginal risk price and derivative he…
In this note we describe how some objects from generalized geometry appear in the qualitative analysis and numerical simulation of mechanical systems. In particular we discuss double vector bundles and Dirac structures. It turns out that those objects can be naturally associated to systems with constraints -- we recall…
The influence of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) on the price process is explored with the help of a simple model. CTA managers are taken to be Kelly optimisers, which invest a fixed proportion of their assets in the risky asset and the remainder in a riskless asset. This requires regular adjustment of the portfolio w…