Introduces QHawkes models for financial prices, capturing non-linear feedback effects.
problem Modeling financial volatility with non-linear feedback effects.
method Develops QHawkes models with linear and quadratic feedback, fits to NYSE data.
result QHawkes models capture fat-tailed volatility and time-reversal asymmetry in financial data.
New model captures asymmetric rough volatility with Zumbach effect.
problem Capturing asymmetric rough volatility and Zumbach effect.
method Proposes a bivariate QHawkes process to model asymmetric buying and selling actions.
result Derives a super-rough-Heston model preserving the Zumbach effect.
Calibrates Hawkes models for market events, revealing power-law feedback kernels.
problem Estimating the influence of past events and price changes on future market events.
method Proposes a calibration procedure for Quadratic Hawkes models, analyzing the kernel components.
result Empirically calibrated kernel components reveal power-law behavior, suggesting system near critical point.
Extends QHawkes to MQHawkes for analyzing financial co-jumps.
problem Capturing endogenous co-jumps in financial markets.
method Develops MQHawkes process with quadratic kernels, investigates stationarity, and derives Yule-Walker equations.
result Volatility distribution exhibits power-law behavior with computable exponents.
Modeling financial dynamics with Hawkes processes and rough volatility, capturing Zumbach effect.
problem Capturing endogeneity and feedback effects in financial markets.
method Using quadratic Hawkes processes and rough Heston models, incorporating the Zumbach effect.
result Long term limits of quadratic Hawkes processes are refined rough Heston models with enhanced volatility and Zumbach effect.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
problem Stability condition for Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
method Analysis of Quadratic Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
result Quadratic Hawkes processes are always stationary with infinite mean intensity when total endogeneity ratio exceeds unity.
Study optimizes investment strategies in markets with contagious price jumps.
problem Optimizing portfolios in financial markets with contagious price jumps.
method Applied stochastic maximum principle, backward stochastic differential equations, and linear-quadratic control techniques.
result Obtained efficient strategy and efficient frontier in semi-closed form.
New Hawkes processes model spatiotemporal events with triggering and clustering.
problem Modeling self-excitatory behavior in spatiotemporal data.
method Developed a new class of spatiotemporal Hawkes processes with efficient inference method.
result Efficiently modeled and inferred spatiotemporal events with triggering and clustering.
New method calibrates MQHawkes model using non-parametric approach, identifying cross-Hawkes and cross-leverage effects.
problem Calibrating complex Hawkes processes with non-parametric methods.
method Non-parametric calibration using General Method of Moments on coarse-grained MQHawkes model.
result Identification of cross-Hawkes and cross-leverage effects in futures markets.
This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
Methodology for estimating marked Hawkes processes with neural networks.
problem Estimating conditional intensity of marked Hawkes processes.
method Proposes two models: Shallow Neural Hawkes with marks and Neural Network for Non-Linear Hawkes with Marks.
result Validation on synthetic datasets and real-world cryptocurrency order book data.
New model uses variance-Hawkes process to fit energy market returns.
problem Modeling clustering effects in financial markets.
method Defining and fitting a variance-Hawkes process to energy market returns.
result Demonstrated that variance-Hawkes process can capture clustering effects.
The paper proves partial rigidity of Hawking mass for stable CMC spheres in specific manifolds.
problem Rigidity of Hawking mass for stable CMC spheres in asymptotic flat and hyperbolic manifolds.
method Mean-field equation and monotonicity of Hawking mass, combined with Shi's rigidity results.
result If the Hawking mass of a nearly round stable CMC surface vanishes, the surface must be a standard sphere in R^3 and the interior is flat.
Study finds small surfaces in space times with new functionals.
problem Investigating small surfaces in space times without symmetry assumptions.
method Introducing Hawking type functionals and analyzing their properties.
result Characterization of concentration points and expansion of critical surfaces.
Derives a pricing formula for VIX options using a new stochastic volatility model.
problem Pricing VIX options under a new stochastic volatility model with volatility clustering.
method Derives a semi-analytical pricing formula using the Heston-Hawkes model with an independent compound Hawkes process.
result Derives an explicit expression for VIX^2 as a linear combination of variance and Hawkes intensity.
Study Hessian geometry of Gibbons-Hawking metrics and their phase changes.
problem Understanding phase changes in Gibbons-Hawking metrics.
method Analysis via moment maps of Hessian geometry.
result Characterization of phase changes in Gibbons-Hawking metrics.
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has immigration-birth representation. Based on that, Fierro et al. recently introduced…
Proposes a method to align Hawkes processes across different event spaces.
problem Aligning Hawkes processes in multiple event spaces.
method Fused Gromov-Wasserstein alignment for Hawkes processes.
result The method effectively aligns Hawkes processes and their event types.
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
problem Lack of studies on Hawkes volatility for tick-level price dynamics.
method Derived variance formula for unmarked and marked Hawkes models, applied to mid-price process.
result Reliable results and high predictive power of intraday Hawkes volatility.
Hawkes processes model self-exciting point events with applications in finance and beyond.
problem Modeling self-exciting point events in various fields.
method Hawkes processes are a self-exciting point process where each event increases the likelihood of future events.
result Hawkes processes have been successfully applied in diverse areas like earthquake modeling and financial analysis.
The paper models trades in dark pools using Hawkes processes.
problem Modeling clustered trades in dark pools.
method Developed a non-Markovian Hawkes process with time-dependent baseline intensity.
result Obtained closed-form formulas for the Hawkes process.
Efficiently estimates Hawkes process kernels using non-parametric Bayesian methods.
problem Estimating flexible Hawkes process kernels with uncertainty quantification.
method Cluster representation of Hawkes processes, Gibbs sampling, expectation maximization.
result Linear time complexity in both theoretical and empirical settings.
New optimal investment strategies for finance and insurance using Hawkes-based models.
problem Optimal investment strategies in finance and insurance for specific models.
method Solving Merton investment problems with Hawkes-based models.
result New optimal investment results for finance and insurance models.
Study of Hawkes processes in limit order books for price volatility analysis.
problem Understanding price volatility in limit order books.
method Construct and analyze general compound Hawkes processes.
result Established Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems for specific variations.
Constructs foliations of critical surfaces for Hawking energy in asymptotically flat initial data sets.
problem Positivity and rigidity of Hawking quasi-local energy in asymptotically flat spacetimes.
method Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction within a Willmore-foliation framework.
result Existence and uniqueness of foliations by Hawking surfaces, positivity and large-sphere limit of Hawking energy.
The paper develops Hawkes-based models for LOB and applies them to European, spread, and basket option pricing.
problem Developing accurate models for pricing options in the context of limit order books (LOB).
method Introduces multivariate Hawkes processes and their limit theorems, applies to European, spread, and basket options.
result Hawkes-based models provide more market forecast information than classical models.
Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.
problem Modeling dependence structures in time series data with realistic autocorrelation functions.
method Develops a Hawkes process with CARMA(p,q) intensity to capture more complex dependencies.
result The CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model can reproduce more realistic dependence structures and is stationary and positive.
The Hawking energy is nonnegative and rigid on area-constrained surfaces in general relativity.
problem The rigidity and positivity of the Hawking energy on specific surfaces in general relativity.
method Evaluation of the Hawking energy on area-constrained critical surfaces under the dominant energy condition.
result The Hawking energy is nonnegative and rigid on area-constrained surfaces, including charged and cosmological constant variants.
Paper proposes a neural network for non-parametric Hawkes process kernel estimation.
problem Estimating non-parametric Hawkes process kernels efficiently and interpretably.
method Single hidden layer neural network for unbiased log-likelihood estimation of Hawkes processes.
result Proposed neural network achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
Improved Hawkes model captures price dynamics and volatility.
problem Modeling price tick structures and estimating volatility.
method Extended Hawkes model with random marks, incorporating market noise and clustering.
result Volatility formula derived and compared with realized volatility.
Paper analyzes Hawkes processes with age pyramid tracking.
problem Understanding complex counting processes with shot noise intensity.
method Introduces age pyramid concept and pathwise construction.
result New distribution properties for linear Hawkes processes.
Mamba Hawkes Process improves modeling of event sequences with long-term dependencies.
problem Modeling mutual inhibition and nonlinearity in asynchronous event sequences.
method Introduces Mamba Hawkes Process using Mamba state space architecture.
result MHP outperforms existing models across various datasets.
Superposed Hawkes processes improve risk bounds and solve cold-start issues.
problem Improving risk bounds in temporal point processes.
method Least squares estimation of superposed Hawkes processes.
result Superposed Hawkes processes tighten risk bounds under certain conditions.
A toolkit for learning Hawkes processes simplifies research and education.
problem Analyzing asynchronous event sequences with self- and mutually-triggering patterns.
method Implementation of learning algorithms and analysis tools for Hawkes processes.
result Systematic compilation of state-of-the-art and classic Hawkes process algorithms.
New foliations found for critical surfaces of Hawking energy, resolving discrepancies.
problem Finding consistent critical surfaces for the Hawking energy in non-totally geodesic spacelike hypersurfaces.
method Constructing a unique local foliation of area constrained critical surfaces of the Hawking energy in the general case of non-totally geodesic spacelike hypersurfaces.
result Discrepancy found in the small sphere limit of the Hawking energy, explained and resolved.
Study sharp convergence rates of empirical UOT for spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Statistical analysis of UOT for spatio-temporal point processes.
method Empirical plug-in estimators for Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance between intensity measures.
result Sharp convergence rates of empirical UOT in terms of intrinsic dimensions of measures.
Improved learning of Hawkes processes with superposition-assisted optimization.
problem Learning multi-agent Hawkes processes with shared and different intensities.
method Stochastic optimization with superposition-driven diversity strategy.
result Superposition improves risk bound and convergence properties.
Flexible nonlinear Hawkes processes for time-varying systems.
problem Limited expressive ability of classic Hawkes processes.
method Flexible state-switching Hawkes processes with latent variable augmentation for Bayesian inference.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art competitors.
Sharp bounds for charged Hawking mass in electrostatic space-times.
problem Bounding charged Hawking mass in electrostatic space-times.
method Proving sharp lower bounds and upper bounds for the charged Hawking mass.
result Sharp lower bounds for the charged Hawking mass of stable surfaces in electrostatic space-times.
This chapter teaches how to model social media events using Hawkes processes.
problem Modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time in social media.
method Introduction to point processes, Hawkes process, event intensity function, event simulation, parameter estimation.
result Demonstrates modeling retweet cascades using a Hawkes self-exciting process.
Exact asymptotic solutions found for nonlinear Hawkes processes.
problem Analytical solutions for nonlinear Hawkes processes with positive and negative feedbacks.
method Field master equation approach to classify steady-state solutions.
result Explicit power law formulas for steady-state intensity distributions Pss(λ)∝λ−1−a, with a as a function of parameters. Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
Study uses Hawkes and diffusion models to analyze stock price dynamics.
problem Analyzing volatility and price dynamics in ultra-high-frequency stock data.
method Combined symmetric Hawkes and diffusion models with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Model provides accurate volatility estimation and dynamics of parameters.
The paper studies Hawkes processes under mean-field limits and criticality conditions.
problem Analyzing nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime.
method Extending the method by Jaisson and Rosenbaum, establishing scaling limits and propagation of chaos.
result Scaling limits of Hawkes processes are stochastic Volterra diffusions of affine type, with three distinct limiting regimes.
Study differentially private methods for learning Hawkes processes.
problem Lack of thorough analysis on sample complexity for learning Hawkes processes parameters and releasing differentially private versions.
method Developed non-private and differentially private estimators for Hawkes processes parameters.
result Obtained sample complexity results for both private and non-private settings.
New risk model based on compound Hawkes process for insurance claims.
problem Modeling the arrival of insurance claims for risk assessment.
method Introducing a new risk model based on general compound Hawkes process (GCHP) and proving LLN and FCLT.
result Similar results for RMGCHP applied to RMCPP, including net profit condition, premium principle, and ruin time.
Study on queues with Hawkes arrivals, proving steady-state behavior and developing an efficient algorithm.
problem Analyzing the steady-state behavior of queues with Hawkes arrivals.
method Novel coupling techniques and exponential convergence results for workload and busy period processes.
result Exponential convergence of queueing processes to their stationary distribution.