A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This work introduces a new probabilistic process for regularization in machine learning.
Deep Q-EP improves image modeling by stacking Q-EP layers.
New spatiotemporal Besov process improves CT image reconstruction and other inverse problems.
A pricing principle is introduced for non-attainable claims in incomplete markets.
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade dur…
Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.
We proposed the agent-based model of financial markets where agents (or traders) are represented by three-state spins located on the plane lattice or social network. The spin variable represents only the individual opinion (advice) that each trader gives to his nearest neighbors. In the model the agents can be consider…
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from January 1975 to April 2003, corresponded to the periods of bubbles and anti-bub…
Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold for a fixed expected recurrence time . We find that the recurrence inter…
Order cancellation process plays a crucial role in the dynamics of price formation in order-driven stock markets and is important in the construction and validation of computational finance models. Based on the order flow data of 18 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003, we investigate the empiric…
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law prob…
We developed a strategic of optimal portfolio based on information theory and Tsallis statistics. The growth rate of a stock market is defined by using -deformed functions and we find that the wealth after n days with the optimal portfolio is given by a -exponential function. In this context, the asymptotic optim…
New method calibrates reference distributions for bounded support.
Coupled entropy corrects flaws in Tsallis entropy for complex systems.
In this paper we present an interacting-agent model of stock markets. We describe a stock market through an Ising-like model in order to formulate the tendency of traders getting to be influenced by the other traders' investment attitudes [1], and formulate the traders' decision-making regarding investment as the maxim…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are predictable on the short term. Examining a range of different types of returns and th…
A plethora of natural, artificial and social systems exist which do not belong to the Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical-mechanical world, based on the standard additive entropy and its associated exponential BG factor. Frequent behaviors in such complex systems have been shown to be closely related to -stati…
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and a…
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
Elliptical processes generalize Gaussian and Student-t models with fat tails and computational efficiency.
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. We use this underlying re…
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
Efficient methods for Lévy models using SINH-regular processes.
The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…
GRM uses graph neural networks to score process activity relevance.
Researchers study the geometric properties of a specific type of stable processes.
This study bridges discrete and continuous state spaces using the Ehrenfest process and diffusion models.
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
Gaussian process priors are commonly used in aerospace design for performing Bayesian optimization. Nonetheless, Gaussian processes suffer two significant drawbacks: outliers are a priori assumed unlikely, and the posterior variance conditioned on observed data depends only on the locations of those data, not the assoc…
Elliptical processes extend Gaussian models with heavier tails.
In this paper, we obtain the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probability asymptotics for risk processes with claims of subexponential tails for non-stationary arrival processes that satisfy a large deviation principle. As a result, the arrival process can be dependent, non-stationary and non-renewal. We give t…
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
Study on error probability for classification of heavy-tailed renewal processes.
Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.
Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.
State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are linear transformations of the nonnegative orthant.
Automated process discovery is a class of process mining methods that allow analysts to extract business process models from event logs. Traditional process discovery methods extract process models from a snapshot of an event log stored in its entirety. In some scenarios, however, events keep coming with a high arrival…
The paper models user-advertiser interactions using point processes.
Paper introduces a new model for cyber insurance pricing.
We describe the combinatorial stochastic process underlying a sequence of conditionally independent Bernoulli processes with a shared beta process hazard measure. As shown by Thibaux and Jordan [TJ07], in the special case when the underlying beta process has a constant concentration function and a finite and nonatomic …
We introduce Dirac processes, using Dirac delta functions, for short-rate-type pricing of financial derivatives. Dirac processes add spikes to the existing building blocks of diffusions and jumps. Dirac processes are Generalized Processes, which have not been used directly before because the dollar value of non-Real nu…
Improved Gaussian process experts model for complex data.
Study of Markov-modulated affine processes for richer models in finance.