arXiv research

Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.

Introduces PIT-plot for prioritizing projects based on their impact.

Teaching tool simplifies Monte Carlo simulation for project risk analysis.

A new method prioritizes project risks using Monte Carlo Simulation.

This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits--used in the business cases, cost-ben…

A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.

Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The paper demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projec…

This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…

A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…

This paper proposes a method to select project schedules with the lowest risk.

Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed a sample of 1,355 publ…

The globalization feeded by the technology explosion that begans in the end of the last century, started the world to change faster every day. The only today's certain is the tomorrow's uncertain. Risk is defined as uncertain where one or many causes composed of ocurrence probality can generate an impact or consequence…

All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the example of project management. This is a game with two players, one of which is…

Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.

This study investigates the use of reinforcement learning to guide a general purpose cache manager decisions. Cache managers directly impact the overall performance of computer systems. They govern decisions about which objects should be cached, the duration they should be cached for, and decides on which objects to ev…

Empirical study finds IT project costs follow a power-law distribution, exposing risk underestimation.

Deployment of emerging technologies and rapid change in industries has created a lot of risk for initiating the new projects. Many techniques and suggestions have been introduced but still lack the gap from various prospective. This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach. The objectives of project schedu…

Enhances multi-project scheduling with multiple priority rules.

To date, pavement management software products and studies on optimizing the prioritization of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) have been mainly focused on three parameters; the pre-treatment pavement condition, the rehabilitation cost, and the available budget. Yet, the role of the candidate projects' spa…

The Prescriptive Canvas improves business outcomes by directly prescribing actions based on predictions.

The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindn…

Analyzes retail trends from sales, search, and reviews.

Detects project management anti-patterns using code and issue data.

Research funding agencies routinely use a proportion of their total revenues to support internal administration and marketing costs. The ratio of administration to total costs, referred to as the administration ratio, is highly variable and within any single fund depends on many factors including the number and average…

The paper presents a practical method for evaluating investment projects using real options.

Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noel Forgeard and Levi Strauss' CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and Auto Windscreen in the UK. Software and other IT is now such an integral part o…

This research proposes methods to model and assess liability liquidity risk in asset management.

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to inco…

Study evaluates risk in options using volatility surface projections.

Research proposes a model to estimate transaction costs and assess asset liquidity risk.

Research shows eco-innovation boosts earnings management, especially in constrained firms.

Third part of a study on liquidity risk in asset management, focusing on managing the asset-liability liquidity risk.

This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study. First, it answers the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units mega, giga, and tera, concluding we are presently entering a new "tera era" of trillion-dollar projects. Second, total global megapr…

Study on insurance risk management and sustainable development.

The big data trend has inspired feature-driven learning tasks, which cannot be handled by conventional machine learning models. Unstructured data produces very large binary matrices with millions of columns when converted to vector form. However, such data is often sparse, and hence can be manageable through the use of…

In 1992, Brehm and Kühnel constructed a 8-dimensional simplicial complex $M^8_{15}$ with 15 vertices as a candidate to be a minimal triangulation of the quaternionic projective plane. They managed to prove that it is a manifold "like a projective plane" in the sense of Eells and Kuiper. However, it was not known until …

Real projective structures on $n$-orbifolds are useful in understanding the space of representations of discrete groups into $\mathrm{SL}(n+1, \mathbb{R})$ or $\mathrm{PGL}(n+1, \mathbb{R})$. A recent work shows that many hyperbolic manifolds deform to manifolds with such structures not projectively equivalent to the o…

Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…

The way developers collaborate inside and particularly across teams often escapes management's attention, despite a formal organization with designated teams being defined. Observability of the actual, organically formed engineering structure provides decision makers invaluable additional tools to manage their talent p…

In the first section, this report analyses Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in the context of megaprojects, explaining why they are often delivered over budget and late. In the second section, the report discusses how Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) might address these issues. Megaprojects are extremely risky and often implem…

Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs at the earliest stages of product development. This is why it is indispensable to…

Real projective structures on $n$-orbifolds are useful in understanding the space of representations of discrete groups into $\mathrm{SL}(n+1, \mathbb{R})$ or $\mathrm{PGL}(n+1, \mathbb{R})$. A recent work shows that many hyperbolic manifolds deform to manifolds with such structures not projectively equivalent to the o…

Real projective structures on $n$-orbifolds are useful in understanding the space of representations of discrete groups into $SL(n+1, \mathbb{R})$ or $PGL(n+1, \mathbb{R})$. A recent work shows that many hyperbolic manifolds deform to manifolds with such structures not projectively equivalent to the original ones. The …

Paper defines the payback period for nonconventional cash flows using axioms.

Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.

We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time-to-maturity buckets, we propose a modelling framework w…

Enhances crowd safety through AI and data-driven models.

One key requirement for effective supply chain management is the quality of its inventory management. Various inventory management methods are typically employed for different types of products based on their demand patterns, product attributes, and supply network. In this paper, our goal is to develop robust demand pr…