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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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52103155206 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Probability probes

This paper explores what causal structures can be distinguished by observational and interventional probing schemes.

problem Identifying causal structures with latent variables using observational and interventional data.
method Investigates the power of different probing schemes (observation vs. intervention) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they share the same mDAG structure.

We study the statistical behavior of reasoning probes in a stylized model of iterative computation inspired by neural algorithmic reasoning. The underlying computation is given by a looped Boolean circuit whose graph is a perfect νν-ary tree (ν2ν\ge 2), with outputs recursively fed back as inputs across computation ro…

2026-02-03abs ↗pdf ↗

A probing scheme is considered with an accessible and controllable qubit, used to probe an out-of equilibrium system consisting of a second qubit interacting with an environment. Quantum spontaneous synchronization between the probe and the system emerges in this model and, by tuning the probe frequency, can occur both…

2019-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New method tightens federated probe-logit distillation rates under varying bandwidths.

problem Estimating conditional distributions in federated learning with heterogeneous bandwidth constraints.
method Developed a new federated probe-logit distillation (FPLD) method with optimal allocation for varying bandwidths.
result Achieved matching lower and upper bounds for the minimax rate under heterogeneous bandwidths.

We identify spectral conditions for reliable neural probe interpretation.

problem Unreliable performance of linear probes in interpreting neural representations.
method Formalized Spectral Identifiability Principle (SIP) based on eigengap and Fisher error.
result Reliability of neural probes depends on the eigengap relative to Fisher estimation error.

Paper introduces Manifold Probe for discovering representation manifolds in superposition.

problem Discovering representation manifolds in complex superposition representations.
method Generalizes linear regression probes to learn feature spaces and directions in superposition representations.
result Demonstrates Manifold Probe on Llama 2-7b representations, finding causally involved manifolds in model behaviour.

OLPA optimizes online user-centric selection with probing, achieving near-optimal regret bounds.

problem Sequential decision-making with unknown resources and rewards.
method Probing-augmented user-centric selection (PUCS) framework, greedy probing algorithm, OLPA algorithm.
result OLPA achieves a near-optimal regret bound of O(T+ln2T)\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T} + \ln^{2} T) for online settings.

BoC probe assesses neural network confidence coherence, revealing architecture-specific uncertainty.

problem Poor calibration and OOD detection in neural networks.
method Bag-of-Coins (BoC) probe compares softmax confidence to pairwise dominance probabilities.
result BoC reveals clear ID/OOD separation for some architectures but not others.

Paper analyzes why deeper layers of ViTs perform worse on out-of-distribution tasks.

problem Performance degradation of intermediate layers in ViTs under distribution shift.
method Extensive linear probing experiments across various benchmarks and fine-grained analysis of transformer modules.
result Probing feedforward network activations yields best performance under significant distribution shift.

The ability of modeling the other agents, such as understanding their intentions and skills, is essential to an agent's interactions with other agents. Conventional agent modeling relies on passive observation from demonstrations. In this work, we propose an interactive agent modeling scheme enabled by encouraging an a…

2018-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

CwA optimizes search performance by jointly learning a balanced database partition and a neural probing function.

problem Suboptimal search performance due to mismatched database and query distributions.
method CwA jointly learns a balanced database partition and a neural probing function to optimize search performance directly for the query distribution.
result CwA achieves up to 4.7x throughput over state-of-the-art methods at equal recall.

Study examines flaws in probing LLMs' knowledge and introduces a new method.

problem Flaws in existing methods for probing the veracity of LLMs' internal knowledge.
method sAwMIL (Sparse-Aware Multiple-Instance Learning) combining multiple-instance learning with conformal prediction.
result LLMs encode a third type of signal distinct from true and false.

This paper addresses missing covariates in stochastic linear bandits, providing a high-probability regret bound.

problem Effect of missing covariates on regret in stochastic linear bandit algorithms.
method Proposes an algorithm that provides a high-probability upper bound on regret in terms of covariate sampling probabilities.
result Regret degrades due to missingness by at most ζmin2ζ_{min}^2, where ζminζ_{min} is the minimum probability of observing covariates.

This paper presents a mesoscopic traffic flow model that explicitly describes the spatio-temporal evolution of the probability distributions of vehicle trajectories. The dynamics are represented by a sequence of factor graphs, which enable learning of traffic dynamics from limited Lagrangian measurements using an effic…

2018-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved unsupervised probing for ranking tasks using Contrast-Consistent Ranking.

problem Improving self-consistency in language model rankings.
method Adapting Contrast-Consistent Search (CCS) to Contrast-Consistent Ranking (CCR) for ranking tasks.
result CCR probing outperforms prompting techniques across different models and datasets.

This research discovers model architecture and training dataset characteristics through strategic input probing.

problem Discovering model architecture and training dataset characteristics in black box models.
method Structured input probes and model outputs are used to train a deep classifier for image and text classification.
result The approach successfully distinguishes between different image and text datasets and architectures.

Researchers create holographic super-embeddings for M5 and M2 branes.

problem No concrete examples of super-embeddings for M5 and M2 branes existed.
method Constructed explicit holographic super-embeddings of probe M5 and M2 branes into their super-AdS backgrounds.
result Explicit holographic super-embeddings of M5 and M2 branes were successfully constructed.

We study supersymmetric probe M5-branes in the AdS_4 solution that arises from M5-branes wrapped on a hyperbolic 3-manifold M_3. This amounts to introducing internal defects within the framework of the 3d-3d correspondence. The BPS condition for a probe M5-brane extending along all of AdS_4 requires it to wrap a surfac…

2014-07-01abs ↗pdf ↗

PROBE algorithm efficiently solves sparse high-dimensional linear regression.

problem Sparse high-dimensional linear regression models with complex parameter spaces.
method Partitioned empirical Bayes ECM algorithm for computationally efficient MAP estimation.
result PROBE algorithm provides robust and efficient coordinate-wise optimization.

This work defines idealized SSL representations and improves existing methods.

problem Unclear characteristics of SSL representations leading to high downstream accuracies.
method Characterized ideal properties and derived necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Improved SSL methods and derived new objectives for contrastive and non-contrastive learning.

Concept Hierarchies and Formal Concept Analysis are theoretically well grounded and largely experimented methods. They rely on line diagrams called Galois lattices for visualizing and analysing object-attribute sets. Galois lattices are visually seducing and conceptually rich for experts. However they present important…

2013-03-11abs ↗pdf ↗

This project report compares some known GAN and VAE models proposed prior to 2017. There has been significant progress after we finished this report. We upload this report as an introduction to generative models and provide some personal interpretations supported by empirical evidence. Both generative adversarial netwo…

2018-12-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Many complex ecosystems, such as those formed by multiple microbial taxa, involve intricate interactions amongst various sub-communities. The most basic relationships are frequently modeled as co-occurrence networks in which the nodes represent the various players in the community and the weighted edges encode levels o…

2016-05-16abs ↗pdf ↗

New method predicts aphasia severity with narrower uncertainty intervals.

problem Predicting aphasia severity in stroke patients using neuroimages.
method Sparse heteroscedastic Bayesian high-dimensional regression with H-PROBE algorithm.
result H-PROBE provides narrower prediction intervals for aphasia severity.

A key challenge in developing and deploying Machine Learning (ML) systems is understanding their performance across a wide range of inputs. To address this challenge, we created the What-If Tool, an open-source application that allows practitioners to probe, visualize, and analyze ML systems, with minimal coding. The W…

2019-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural network models have a reputation for being black boxes. We propose to monitor the features at every layer of a model and measure how suitable they are for classification. We use linear classifiers, which we refer to as "probes", trained entirely independently of the model itself. This helps us better understand …

2016-10-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers propose a new SSL risk decomposition method to evaluate and improve self-supervised learning models.

problem Self-supervised learning evaluation is limited to a single metric, providing little insight into model performance and improvement.
method Proposes an SSL risk decomposition that considers four error components: approximation, representation usability, probe generalization, and encoder generalization.
result Analysis of 169 SSL vision models reveals the main sources of error and provides insights for improving SSL models in specific settings.

The paper evaluates the probability distributions of analog-to-target distances for multiple analogs.

problem Understanding the performance of analog applications through the distribution of distances to target states.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments using dynamical systems theory.
result The size of the catalog and dimensionality affect the probability distributions of the K-best analogs.

Bayesian imaging methods deliver trustworthy probabilities in some cases but struggle with uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian imaging methods.
method Monte Carlo method to explore reliability of probabilities.
result Modern Bayesian imaging techniques deliver reliable probabilities in some cases but not for uncertainty quantification.