Probability calibration trees improve accuracy of probability estimates.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of probability estimates from classifiers.
method Probability calibration trees modify logistic model trees to learn different models in regions of the input space.
result Probability calibration trees outperform isotonic regression and Platt scaling in terms of root mean squared error.
This paper calculates the exact probability distribution of hypervolume improvement for bi-objective problems.
problem Calculating the exact probability distribution of hypervolume improvement in bi-objective problems.
method Cell partition-based method to derive the probability distribution of hypervolume improvement from a bi-variate Gaussian random variable.
result The proposed ε-PoHVI acquisition function outperforms other related functions in Bayesian optimization. Improved bounds for discrete probability distribution estimation under the ℓ∞ norm.
problem Estimating discrete probability distributions under the ℓ∞ norm with improved bounds.
method Minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds.
result Resolved open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025), including a fully empirical tightest risk bound and identifying the worst-case extremal distribution.
Interpretable classifier improves accuracy through probability series expansion.
problem Improving classifier accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
method Directly measures class probabilities from training data, refines predictions through series expansion.
result Achieves comparable accuracy to Random Forests on four datasets.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
problem Predicting correctness in large language models
method Quantifying sequence probability and correctness across different levels
result Higher sequence probability often predicts correctness across prompt-answer pairs
Random forests improve probability estimates through kernel regression.
problem Improving the principled approach to random forest probability estimation.
method Forge a connection between random forests and kernel regression, develop a proximity kernel model.
result Improves statistical footing of random forest probability estimation.
Paper improves tree probability estimation using stochastic optimization and variance reduction.
problem Improving tree probability estimation in phylogenetic inference.
method Introduces computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and variance reduction for optimization.
result Methods outperform previous baseline methods in tree topology probability estimation and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
SplineCalib calibrates probabilities using splines for better performance.
problem Calibrating probabilities for better accuracy and log-loss.
method Uses smoothing splines to determine a calibration function.
result Significant improvements to log-loss and accuracy on various problems.
Paper improves compressed sensing with prior probability information.
problem Enhancing compressed sensing accuracy with prior information.
method Designing a sensing matrix and sparse recovery algorithm using probability-based prior information.
result Proposed methods outperform existing CS systems in simulations.
Study improves estimation of rare language model outputs.
problem Estimating probabilities of rare outputs in language models.
method Importance sampling vs. activation extrapolation for low probability estimation.
result Importance sampling outperforms activation extrapolation.
A key prerequisite to optimal reasoning under uncertainty in intelligent systems is to start with good class probability estimates. This paper improves on the current best probability estimation trees (Bagged-PETs) and also presents a new ensemble-based algorithm (MOB-ESP). Comparisons are made using several benchmark …
Quantum probability metrics improve distribution comparison in high dimensions.
problem Challenges in comparing probability distributions, especially in high-dimensional and non-compact domains.
method Quantum probability metrics (QPMs) derived from quantum state spaces, overcoming limitations of MMD.
result QPMs offer enhanced sensitivity to subtle distributional differences in high dimensions and improve performance in generative modeling.
Proposes a new method to improve multiclass probability calibration.
problem Uncalibrated class probabilities in multiclass classifiers leading to over-confidence.
method Dirichlet calibration method applicable to any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions.
result Improved probabilistic predictions across various datasets and classifiers.
We solve offline learning problems without action probabilities using imitation and policy improvement.
problem Offline learning in automated decision systems with missing action probabilities.
method We use policy improvement and imitation regularization to estimate action policies.
result Our method improves upon existing approaches by reducing uncertainty and improving accuracy.
This work improves deep neural network probability estimation methods.
problem Estimating probabilities from high-dimensional data with inherent uncertainty.
method Investigates and compares methods for probability estimation using deep neural networks, proposing a new method that promotes consistent probabilities.
result The new method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on simulated and real-world data.
Improves probability estimates for small datasets in multi-class problems.
problem Inaccurate probability estimates in classification tasks, especially on small datasets.
method Introduced Data Generation and Grouping algorithm to improve calibration on small datasets, then applied to multi-class problems.
result Calibration error can be decreased using the proposed approach.
MPT improves CNN and energy-based models' OOD detection and generalization.
problem Challenging out-of-distribution detection in computer vision.
method Applying Maximum Probability Theorem as a regularization scheme in CNN and energy-based models.
result MPT-based regularization strategy stabilizes and improves generalization and robustness of base models.
Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.
problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.
Calibrated Boosting-Forest improves ranking and probability calibration in classification tasks.
problem Need for superior ranking power and well-calibrated probability estimates in classification tasks.
method Ensemble of gradient boosting machines supporting both continuous and binary labels.
result Calibrated Boosting-Forest achieves significant improvements in ranking and probability calibration compared to state-of-the-art models.
Improved speech recognition model with better performance.
problem Speech recognition accuracy on Librispeech.
method Integrates an external language model with an internal LM correction.
result Over 14% relative improvement in performance.
The paper improves the probability flow ODE sampler for faster sampling of natural images.
problem Improving the convergence rate of the probability flow ODE sampler.
method Adapting the probability flow ODE sampler to exploit intrinsic low-dimensional structures in natural image data.
result Achieves a dimension-free convergence rate of O(k/T) in total variation distance, improving upon existing results. This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.
problem Learning conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks with limited data.
method Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in conditional probabilities with incomplete data.
result Improves state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks with incomplete data.
Proposes using past outcomes to improve risk mitigation recommendations.
problem Inflation of probability estimates from static data.
method Uses past outcome probabilities as features and updates unchangeable features based on future data.
result More realistic probability estimates can be obtained.
Subclass distillation improves small models by matching teacher's subclass probabilities.
problem Improving small models trained on limited data.
method Train a small model to match probabilities of subclasses invented by a large teacher model.
result Better small models trained on limited data.
Binary classification models get more efficient predictive probabilities.
problem Computing predictive probabilities in Bayesian probit models is computationally challenging.
method Use of expectation propagation (EP) to find a closed-form expression for predictive probabilities.
result Closed-form predictive probabilities improve over existing methods.
Improves probability estimation for high-cardinality data using graphical models and count sketches.
problem Estimating probabilities in high-cardinality data with structured models.
method Combining graphical models and count-min sketches with random projections.
result Significantly improved error bounds and computational efficiency over existing methods.
New method improves classification performance in Bayesian networks.
problem Estimating conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks.
method Hierarchical Multinomial-Dirichlet model for joint estimation of conditional distributions.
result Significantly improved classification performance compared to traditional methods.
New linear algorithms improve wSVMs for multiclass probability estimation.
problem Estimating conditional probabilities for multiclass problems.
method Proposed baseline learning and OVA learning schemes to improve wSVMs.
result Linear algorithms achieve optimal computational efficiency and good estimation accuracy.
New method improves probability estimation accuracy by up to 50%.
problem Estimating probabilities from limited samples.
method Regulating symbol probabilities based on similar frequencies.
result Significant improvement in estimation accuracy (up to 50%).
Paper improves language models' ability to predict numbers.
problem Improving language models' numeracy for technical documents.
method Exploring memorisation, digit-by-digit composition, and a continuous probability density function model.
result Hierarchical models improve perplexity by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude.
Improved uncertainty estimates for classification models reduce calibration error.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty estimates in modern deep learning models.
method Restricting predictions to Top-1 error probabilities to improve calibration.
result Calibration error decreased to less than 1%.
Fisher consistency improves class probability estimation under dataset shift.
problem Lack of Fisher consistency can lead to unreliable class probability estimates.
method Introduced Fisher consistency as a desirable property for class prior probability estimators.
result CDE-Iterate is not Fisher consistent and cannot be trusted for reliable estimates.
Paper improves neural network accuracy by focusing on uncertain samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy through better instance weighting.
method Estimates sample uncertainty in SGD to re-weight training instances.
result Reliable improvements in accuracy across various network architectures.
RePULSe improves language model alignment by reducing undesired outputs without sacrificing overall performance.
problem Aligning language models with human preferences while minimizing undesired outputs.
method Integrates probabilistic inference into RL training to reduce undesired outputs.
result RePULSe achieves a better balance between expected reward and undesired output probability.
Improves recommender systems using mathematical principles.
problem Accuracy and speed of recommender systems.
method Explains and analyzes mathematical principles and algorithms.
result Describes the strengths and weaknesses of mathematical distance methods.
This paper introduces Probability Engineering to improve deep learning models.
problem Challenges in traditional probabilistic modeling for AI applications.
method Treats learned probability distributions as engineering artifacts and actively modifies them.
result Improves robustness, efficiency, adaptability, and trustworthiness of deep learning models.
Adaptive learning rates improve FTPL's BOBW guarantees in bandit problems.
problem Improving Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader's BOBW guarantees in bandit problems.
method Introducing surrogate probability functions to compute adaptive learning rates without exact probabilities.
result BOBW guarantees for FTPL with Pareto perturbations for any α>1. Improved GAN training stability through clipping and reweighting.
problem Inconsistent GAN training leading to inferior performance.
method Proposes a variational GAN framework with probability ratio clipping and sample reweighting.
result Significantly improved performance across various GAN tasks.
New algorithm reduces high-probability regret for time-varying feedback graphs.
problem High-probability regret bounds for adversarial bandits with time-varying feedback graphs.
method Online mirror descent framework with innovative techniques for pessimistic loss estimators.
result Achieves optimal high-probability regret bound for general and weakly observable graphs.
DP-SPRT improves privacy in sequential tests with near-optimal error rates.
problem Privacy constraints in sequential probability ratio tests.
method A wrapper for SPRT that uses a private mechanism to determine when to stop based on predefined intervals.
result DP-SPRT achieves near-optimal error rates and privacy guarantees.
Improves A/B testing by detecting minor treatment effects.
problem Challenges in identifying small average treatment effects.
method Maximum probability-driven two-armed bandit (TAB) process with weighted mean volatility statistic.
result Significant improvement in A/B testing with reduced experimental costs.
Knowledge distillation improves model accuracy by mimicking teacher model probabilities.
problem Improving model accuracy through model compression.
method Casting knowledge distillation as a semiparametric inference problem, deriving new guarantees, and developing enhancements.
result Enhancements improve student performance by mitigating teacher overfitting and underfitting.
The paper introduces a method to calibrate causal relationships from observational data.
problem Calibrating probabilities of causal relationships from observational data.
method The framework consists of three components: approximate probability estimates, calibration training set, and a calibration method.
result The proposed approach improves the calibration of causal edge predictions and often improves precision and recall.
This paper optimizes Bayesian acquisition functions in Gaussian Processes for better optimization.
problem Improving the efficiency of Bayesian optimization methods.
method Analysis of different acquisition functions and optimizers for optimizing Bayesian acquisition functions.
result Optimization of acquisition functions leads to faster and more accurate sampling points.
New refit strategy improves probability estimation for multicategory angle-based classifiers.
problem Improving probability estimation for multicategory angle-based classifiers in high dimensional applications.
method Proposes a new refit strategy for multicategory angle-based classifiers, adding small computation cost.
result Significant improvement in probability estimation with minimal additional computation.
Develops a new divergence framework that combines f-divergences and IPMs.
problem Comparing distributions that are not absolutely continuous.
method Introduces (f,Γ)-divergences as a two-stage mass-redistribution/mass-transport process. result Improves estimation, learning, and uncertainty quantification in GANs for heavy-tailed distributions.
The article compares neural networks and logistic regression for credit scoring and introduces a new probability calibration technique.
problem Improving credit scoring accuracy using machine learning techniques.
method Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks, feature importance assessment, temporal feature inclusion, and SURE probability calibration.
result Neural networks can slightly improve credit scoring performance, and SURE calibration technique enhances probability calibration.