A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
RePULSe improves language model alignment by reducing undesired outputs without sacrificing overall performance.
Study improves estimation of rare language model outputs.
Proposes a deep ordinal regression framework using optimal transport loss and unimodal output probabilities.
E2M predicts metric space outputs using deep learning.
We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating the hidden states transition probabilities. The first step is accomplished by fit…
Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…
A new method calculates optimal decisions from classifier outputs, improving predictions in drug discovery.
A computer code can simulate a system's propagation of variation from random inputs to output measures of quality. Our aim here is to estimate a critical output tail probability or quantile without a large Monte Carlo experiment. Instead, we build a statistical surrogate for the input-output relationship with a modest …
Brenier isotonic regression extends multi-output isotonic regression using optimal transport.
Proves bounds on copyright risk for generative models.
Research reveals simplicity bias in random logistic map, impacting data analysis and forecasting.
A novel post-hoc calibration method reduces neural network calibration errors.
In this chapter we take a look at the universal approximation question for stochastic feedforward neural networks. In contrast to deterministic networks, which represent mappings from a set of inputs to a set of outputs, stochastic networks represent mappings from a set of inputs to a set of probability distributions o…
Paper proposes a new ML approach to estimate g-vulnerability without estimating conditional probabilities.
Conditional restricted Boltzmann machines are undirected stochastic neural networks with a layer of input and output units connected bipartitely to a layer of hidden units. These networks define models of conditional probability distributions on the states of the output units given the states of the input units, parame…
Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their ability to represent uncertainty about predictions. In safety-critical applicatio…
Quantum circuits are hard to learn on average.
Estimates MLP expected output without sampling, using fewer FLOPs.
Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently repre…
We introduce an adaptive output-sensitive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for probabilistic models expressed as programs, Adaptive Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (AdLMH). The algorithm extends Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) by adjusting the probabilities of proposing random variables for modification to improve c…
Develops geometric framework for uncertainty-aware multi-class classification.
Unified framework for output analysis using Monte Carlo sampling.
Study shows limitations and possibilities of learning quantum circuit output distributions.
Improves confidence calibration in neural networks by smoothing labels based on class similarity.
A method for consensus prediction from probabilistic classifier outputs.
Hierarchical nucleation patterns emerge in deep neural network layers.
Proposes h-calibration for improving miscalibrated probability outputs of neural networks.
Recently, neural networks in machine learning use rectified linear units (ReLUs) in early processing layers for better performance. Training these structures sometimes results in "dying ReLU units" with near-zero outputs. We first explore this condition via simulation using the CIFAR-10 dataset and variants of two popu…
Learning to predict multi-label outputs is challenging, but in many problems there is a natural metric on the outputs that can be used to improve predictions. In this paper we develop a loss function for multi-label learning, based on the Wasserstein distance. The Wasserstein distance provides a natural notion of dissi…
One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point . The vast majority of classifiers output a score for , which is monotonically related to the posterior probability via an unknown relationship. There are many attempts in the literature …
JES optimizes expensive functions by considering joint entropy over input and output spaces.
In this paper we consider the problem of finding stable maxima of expensive (to evaluate) functions. We are motivated by the optimisation of physical and industrial processes where, for some input ranges, small and unavoidable variations in inputs lead to unacceptably large variation in outputs. Our approach uses multi…
New method uses machine learning to estimate sensitivity without binning.
In most classification tasks there are observations that are ambiguous and therefore difficult to correctly label. Set-valued classifiers output sets of plausible labels rather than a single label, thereby giving a more appropriate and informative treatment to the labeling of ambiguous instances. We introduce a framewo…
New method calibrates neural network predictions for better reliability.
Typically, Softmax is used in the final layer of a neural network to get a probability distribution for output classes. But the main problem with Softmax is that it is computationally expensive for large scale data sets with large number of possible outputs. To approximate class probability efficiently on such large sc…
Sig-PCA integrates model outputs and observations to correct model biases.
Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.
Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP) are probability distributions over vector-valued functions, and have been previously used for multi-output regression and for multi-class classification. A less explored facet of the multi-output Gaussian process is that it can be used as a generative model for vector-valued rando…
Generative source separation methods such as non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) or auto-encoders, rely on the assumption of an output probability density. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can learn data distributions without needing a parametric assumption on the output density. We show on a speech source se…
We introduce a novel conditional density estimation model termed the conditional density operator (CDO). It naturally captures multivariate, multimodal output densities and shows performance that is competitive with recent neural conditional density models and Gaussian processes. The proposed model is based on a novel …
We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with i…
KCal calibrates deep networks by embedding logits in a metric space.
We consider a setting, where the output of a linear dynamical system (LDS) is, with an unknown but fixed probability, replaced by noise. There, we present a robust method for the prediction of the outputs of the LDS and identification of the samples of noise, and prove guarantees on its statistical performance. One app…
Paper improves generalization bounds for structured output prediction problems.
A key prerequisite to optimal reasoning under uncertainty in intelligent systems is to start with good class probability estimates. This paper improves on the current best probability estimation trees (Bagged-PETs) and also presents a new ensemble-based algorithm (MOB-ESP). Comparisons are made using several benchmark …
Bayesian method for estimating inputs leading to specific probability outputs.