This paper introduces Probability Engineering to improve deep learning models.
problem Challenges in traditional probabilistic modeling for AI applications.
method Treats learned probability distributions as engineering artifacts and actively modifies them.
result Improves robustness, efficiency, adaptability, and trustworthiness of deep learning models.
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
problem Constructing accurate and scalable probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference engines (no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation) with binning strategy.
result Density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to large sample sizes.
Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning stabilizes LLM training by removing low-probability tokens.
problem Training Large Language Models (LLMs) with Reinforcement Learning (RL) causes numerical divergence between inference and training.
method Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning (DVP) constrains the RL objective to a safe vocabulary that excludes low-probability tokens.
result DVP stabilizes training by reducing systematic bias introduced by the extreme tail of the token distribution.
Paper introduces TS-GPT for engineering time series forecasting.
problem Engineering time series require causal operations, unlike linguistic data.
method Innovations representation theory, Generative Pre-trained Transformer.
result TS-GPT effectively forecasts real-time locational marginal prices.
Survey and new results link hydrodynamics, molecular physics, and financial engineering.
problem Understanding financial engineering topics like Asian options and volatility swaps.
method Linking Kevin waves, Klein-Kramers, and Kolmogorov equations to financial models.
result Corrected the original solution of the Kolmogorov equation.
Chess engines Stockfish and LCZero differ in their approach to solving endgame puzzles.
problem Comparing machine and human chess problem-solving abilities.
method Used Plaskett's Puzzle to compare Stockfish and LCZero's performance.
result Stockfish outperforms LCZero on the puzzle.
We study the fundamental problem of learning an unknown, smooth probability function via pointwise Bernoulli tests. We provide a scalable algorithm for efficiently solving this problem with rigorous guarantees. In particular, we prove the convergence rate of our posterior update rule to the true probability function in…
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
problem Addressing uncertainty in likelihood for upper probability bounds.
method Generalization of Wasserman and Kadane's result, considering both prior and likelihood uncertainty.
result A sufficient condition for the upper bound to become an equality.
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficie…
Predicting the click-through rate of an advertisement is a critical component of online advertising platforms. In sponsored search, the click-through rate estimates the probability that a displayed advertisement is clicked by a user after she submits a query to the search engine. Commercial search engines typically rel…
Modified lognormal distribution with flexible tails for skewed data.
problem Skewed and fat-tailed data in natural and engineering datasets.
method Developed a family of three-parameter non-Gaussian probability density functions based on generalized kappa-exponential and kappa-logarithm functions.
result Closed-form analytic expressions for statistical functions and maximum-likelihood estimation.
Algorithm learns diverse rankings for search engines.
problem Designing algorithms for search engines to rank diverse items.
method LDR (Learning Diverse Rankings) algorithm, efficient learning based on users' feedback.
result Algorithm achieves optimal ranking performance with O((N−L)log(T)) regret. Improves Bayesian optimisation for engineering design problems with many variables.
problem Efficiently searching for global minima in high-dimensional design spaces.
method Integrates input and output data to identify a reduced latent subspace using probabilistic partial least squares.
result Significant improvements in convergence to the global minimum compared to existing methods.
Extends Bayesian theory to handle complex interdependencies in multidimensional event spaces.
problem Complex interdependencies between events and hypotheses sets in real-world systems.
method Developed a mathematical formalism for modeling complex relationships through rigorous derivation and validated using analytical proofs, simulations, and case studies.
result MDSE theory improves prediction accuracy by 15-20% compared to standard Bayesian methods in high interdimensionality datasets.
Bayesian Optimization tackles hidden constraints in architecture optimization.
problem Optimizing system architectures with hidden constraints using expensive physics-based simulations.
method Surrogate-based optimization with Gaussian Process models, including strategies for handling failed evaluations.
result Best performance achieved with a mixed-discrete GP predicting Probability of Viability (PoV) and minimum PoV threshold selection.
Generative model synthesizes earthquake acceleration data.
problem Robust estimation of ground motions for engineering applications.
method Wasserstein GAN formulation for conditioning on physical variables.
result Trained model synthesizes realistic 3-component accelerograms.
Lognormal random variables appear naturally in many engineering disciplines, including wireless communications, reliability theory, and finance. So, too, does the sum of (correlated) lognormal random variables. Unfortunately, no closed form probability distribution exists for such a sum, and it requires approximation. …
The Lugannani-Rice formula is a saddlepoint approximation method for estimating the tail probability distribution function, which was originally studied for the sum of independent identically distributed random variables. Because of its tractability, the formula is now widely used in practical financial engineering as …
Simpler GNNs with low-rank non-parametric aggregators perform well on graph benchmarks.
problem Over-engineering in GNN architectures for common semi-supervised node classification datasets.
method Replacing feature aggregation with a non-parametric learner to streamline GNN design.
result Non-parametric regression is effective for semi-supervised learning on sparse, directed networks.
New method models stopping times that can be equal with non-zero probability.
problem Standard stopping time models assume conditional independence, limiting flexibility.
method Modified Cox construction with bivariate exponential distribution.
result Created a family of stopping times that can be equal with positive probability.
SBI helps scientists match model outputs to data.
problem Tuning simulator parameters to match empirical data is hard.
method Simulation-based inference (SBI) identifies compatible parameter sets.
result SBI quantifies parameter uncertainty by identifying high-probability regions.
Partial Differential Equations (PDE) are fundamental to model different phenomena in science and engineering mathematically. Solving them is a crucial step towards a precise knowledge of the behaviour of natural and engineered systems. In general, in order to solve PDEs that represent real systems to an acceptable degr…
Proposes isotonic regression for calibrating Deep Cox models' survival probabilities.
problem Poor calibration of Deep Cox models' survival probabilities.
method Isotonic regression for post hoc calibration of Deep Cox models.
result Establishes favorable theoretical guarantees and demonstrates empirical effectiveness.
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
We propose a permutation-invariant loss function designed for the neural networks reconstructing a set of elements without considering the order within its vector representation. Unlike popular approaches for encoding and decoding a set, our work does not rely on a carefully engineered network topology nor by any addit…
In many instances, information on engineering systems can be obtained through measurements, monitoring or direct observations of system performances and can be used to update the system reliability estimate. In structural reliability analysis, such information is expressed either by inequalities (e.g. for the observati…
Paper examines stability of Bayesian posterior measures using integral probability metrics.
problem Stability of Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems.
method New families of integral probability metrics for likelihood and prior perturbations.
result Constructs new stability results for Bayesian posterior measures.
The semantic map calibrates uncertainty from language model probabilities.
problem Uncertainty in language model probabilities for professional decisions.
method Prespecified semantic map linking probabilities of verbal responses to probabilities of declared states.
result Language-derived probabilities outperform printed numerical probabilities and recover valid uncertainty coverage.
This review discusses challenges and solutions for AI in chemical engineering.
problem Challenges in applying classical machine learning to chemical engineering data.
method Identifying four data characteristics and discussing their applications and solutions.
result Current research extends data science and machine learning to handle chemical engineering data challenges.
Applied Data Scientists throughout various industries are commonly faced with the challenging task of encoding high-cardinality categorical features into digestible inputs for machine learning algorithms. This paper describes a Bayesian encoding technique developed for WeWork's lead scoring engine which outputs the pro…
Proposes novel wSVMs for sparse learning and accurate probability estimation.
problem Sparse features with redundant noise limit the performance of existing wSVMs.
method Develops ℓ1-norm and elastic net regularized wSVMs for automatic variable selection and probability estimation. result Elastic net regularized wSVMs achieve superior performance in variable selection and probability estimation.
We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence …
Optimal engine operation during a transient driving cycle is the key to achieving greater fuel economy, engine efficiency, and reduced emissions. In order to achieve continuously optimal engine operation, engine calibration methods use a combination of static correlations obtained from dynamometer tests for steady-stat…
Privacy subsidy found in market trading with noisy direction signals.
problem Analyzing welfare and bid-ask spread in a market with privacy mechanisms.
method Closed-form derivation of bid-ask spread and welfare under flip-noise direction observation.
result Privacy subsidy of μηΔ from liquidity pool to traders, robust across models. NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
Paper uses deep reinforcement learning for better control of rocket engines during start-up phases.
problem Lack of optimal control during transient phases of liquid rocket engines.
method Deep reinforcement learning approach for optimal control of a gas-generator engine's continuous start-up phase.
result Deep reinforcement learning controller achieves highest performance and minimal computational effort.
We propose a Fourier-based learning algorithm for highly nonlinear multiclass classification. The algorithm is based on a smoothing technique to calculate the probability distribution of all classes. To obtain the probability distribution, the density distribution of each class is smoothed by a low-pass filter separate…
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
problem Predicting next actions in soccer possessions with high accuracy.
method Leveraging path signatures to encode spatio-temporal structure of recent possessions, avoiding manual feature engineering.
result Our approach outperforms transformer-based benchmarks across various loss metrics and reduces computational cost.
Paper proposes verifier engineering for improving foundation models.
problem Challenges in providing effective supervision signals for foundation models.
method Leverages automated verifiers to perform verification tasks and deliver feedback.
result Verifier engineering can enhance foundation models' capabilities.
Engine predicts real-time air quality with high resolution.
problem Real-time prediction of air pollutants for health monitoring.
method Combines official data, models, land cover, traffic data for high-resolution predictions.
result Engine produces predictions with resolution of a few dozen meters.
New metrics quantify implementation risk in portfolio backtesting, revealing systematic differences in engine implementations.
problem Systematic divergence in backtested portfolio metrics due to differences in engine implementations.
method Formalized implementation risk, proposed four metrics, executed 15 strategies through five engines, analyzed source-code defects.
result Implementation risk introduces measurable ambiguity in performance attribution, but does not alter investment decisions.
We study the problem of offline learning in automated decision systems under the contextual bandits model. We are given logged historical data consisting of contexts, (randomized) actions, and (nonnegative) rewards. A common goal is to evaluate what would happen if different actions were taken in the same contexts, so …
With the rapid growth in fashion e-commerce and customer-friendly product return policies, the cost to handle returned products has become a significant challenge. E-tailers incur huge losses in terms of reverse logistics costs, liquidation cost due to damaged returns or fraudulent behavior. Accurate prediction of prod…
New method calculates sensitivity of system failure probability.
problem Difficulty in computing sensitivity of failure probability.
method Monte Carlo strategy using response gradient and kernel smoothing.
result Single Monte Carlo run for sensitivity estimates.
Near real-time damage diagnosis of building structures after extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) is of great importance in structural health monitoring. Unlike conventional methods that are usually time-consuming and require human expertise, pattern recognition algorithms have the potential to interpret sensor recording…
Predicts coherence from quantum heat engine noise using machine learning.
problem Predicting coherence in quantum heat engines from nonequilibrium fluctuations.
method Developed a machine learning protocol using K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) model.
result Machine learning successfully predicts coherence from quantum heat engine noise.
This monograph aims at providing an introduction to key concepts, algorithms, and theoretical results in machine learning. The treatment concentrates on probabilistic models for supervised and unsupervised learning problems. It introduces fundamental concepts and algorithms by building on first principles, while also e…
Paper introduces novel survival models for handling censored data.
problem Complex data structures and heavy censoring in survival analysis.
method Combines imprecise probability theory with attention mechanisms.
result Proposed models, especially iSurvJ, outperform traditional methods.