Study optimal stopping times for multi-dimensional processes with non-exponential discounting.
problem Optimal stopping in multi-dimensional processes with non-exponential discounting.
method Probabilistic potential theory to establish existence of optimal equilibria.
result Existence of optimal equilibria for multi-dimensional stopping problems.
Probabilistic pseudo knots model uncertain knot diagrams.
problem Modeling knots with unresolved crossings.
method Assign probabilities to undetermined crossings; define probabilistic equivalence and extend classical knot invariants.
result Capture uncertainty in physical, biological, and computational contexts.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
Graphical models improve actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
problem Improving actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
method Using graphical models to represent complex inter-dependencies and incorporate qualitative knowledge.
result Graphical models can be used to express and analyze non-life insurance claims data.
Probabilistic model for exhaustion in infinite-genus curve complexes.
problem Action rigidity in infinite-genus curve complexes.
method Costa and Farber's model for random simplicial complexes.
result Probabilistic evidence for exhaustion via rigid expansions.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
Randomness and regularities in Finance are usually treated in probabilistic terms. In this paper, we develop a completely different approach in using a non-probabilistic framework based on the algorithmic information theory initially developed by Kolmogorov (1965). We present some elements of this theory and show why i…
In science and especially in economics, agent-based modeling has become a widely used modeling approach. These models are often formulated as a large system of difference equations. In this study, we discuss two aspects, numerical modeling and the probabilistic description for two agent-based computational economic mar…
Potential games, originally introduced in the early 1990's by Lloyd Shapley, the 2012 Nobel Laureate in Economics, and his colleague Dov Monderer, are a very important class of models in game theory. They have special properties such as the existence of Nash equilibria in pure strategies. This note introduces graphical…
While frame-independent predictions with deep neural networks have become the prominent solutions to many computer vision tasks, the potential benefits of utilizing correlations between frames have received less attention. Even though probabilistic machine learning provides the ability to encode correlation as prior kn…
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
Transformers interpreted as probabilistic Laplacian Eigenmaps steps.
problem Improving transformer performance through probabilistic interpretation.
method Probabilistic Laplacian Eigenmaps model derivation and graph diffusion step.
result Subtracting identity from attention matrix improves transformer performance.
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for pro…
MMbeddings reduces categorical embeddings by treating them as latent effects, significantly decreasing parameters and mitigating overfitting.
problem Large cardinalities in categorical embeddings lead to high parameter counts and overfitting.
method MMbeddings treats embeddings as latent random effects in a variational autoencoder framework, reducing parameter count and mitigating overfitting.
result MMbeddings consistently outperforms traditional embeddings across various tasks, demonstrating its potential in machine learning applications.
We introduce a unified framework for solving first passage times of time-homogeneous diffusion processes. According to the killed version potential theory and the perturbation theory, we are able to deduce closed-form solutions for probability densities of single-sided level crossing problem. The framework is applicabl…
Extends partitioned local depth concept with probabilistic considerations.
problem Uncertain, variable, and conflicting information in data.
method Partitioned local depth with probabilistic concepts of local relevance and support division.
result Extends original ideas to handle uncertain data.
Probabilistic theory counts intersections in Riemannian spaces.
problem Counting intersections in Riemannian homogeneous spaces.
method Introduces probabilistic intersection ring HE(M), a graded commutative and associative real Banach algebra. result Probabilistic intersection ring structure defined for spheres, real projective space, and complex projective space.
Solves probabilistic Lambert problem connecting astrodynamics with optimal mass transport.
problem Determining spacecraft velocity for given positions with probabilistic constraints.
method Generalized optimal mass transport (OMT) and Schrödinger bridge (SBP) connections.
result Existence and uniqueness of solution for probabilistic Lambert problem.
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e…
Develops potential theory for WZW equation in Kähler potentials space.
problem Solving the Wess--Zumino--Witten equation in Kähler potentials.
method Introduces ω-harmonicity on graphs to characterize the WZW equation and uses subharmonic distance. result Shows solvability of Dirichlet problem and approximation by finite-dimensional maps.
Almost all of the work in graphical models for game theory has mirrored previous work in probabilistic graphical models. Our work considers the opposite direction: Taking advantage of recent advances in equilibrium computation for probabilistic inference. We present formulations of inference problems in Markov random f…
Researchers propose better probabilistic models for deep learning.
problem Using cross-entropy loss for non-categorical data.
method Introducing continuous-categorical distribution and proposing probabilistic alternatives.
result Potential for outperformance in deep learning models with proper probabilistic treatment.
Innovative PGMs match neural networks, revealing precise approximations during forward propagation.
problem Lack of precise semantics and probabilistic interpretation in neural networks.
method Constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond to neural networks.
result DNNs perform precise approximations of PGM inference during forward propagation.
The paper applies potential theory to conformal geometry, proving theorems and dimension estimates.
problem Understanding the behavior of solutions near singularities in conformal geometry.
method Linear and nonlinear potential theory applied to conformal geometry problems.
result Established Huber's type theorems and Hausdorff dimension estimates for conformal geometry.
Effectively combining logic reasoning and probabilistic inference has been a long-standing goal of machine learning: the former has the ability to generalize with small training data, while the latter provides a principled framework for dealing with noisy data. However, existing methods for combining the best of both w…
We use SMC with twist functions to improve probabilistic inference in LLMs.
problem Improving probabilistic inference in large language models.
method We use Sequential Monte Carlo with learned twist functions to estimate expected future values and focus inference on promising sequences.
result Twisted SMC improves the accuracy of language model inference and evaluation.
CCs learn high-dimensional distributions from heterogeneous data.
problem Learning high-dimensional distributions from heterogeneous data.
method Introducing characteristic circuits (CCs) that learn from data and use spectral domain.
result CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators on common benchmark data sets.
iEFM trains CNF models from unnormalized densities efficiently.
problem Training generators from energy functions or unnormalized densities.
method Iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM) with simulation-free objective.
result iEFM outperforms existing methods in probabilistic modeling.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Inadequate point forecasting methods for capturing full spectrum of volatility outcomes.
method Combines multiple base models (statistical and machine learning) to estimate conditional quantiles of cryptocurrency realized variance.
result QRS method outperforms sophisticated alternatives for Bitcoin volatility forecasting.
New proof of Penrose inequality using potential theory.
problem Proving the Riemannian Penrose inequality for black holes.
method Establishing a monotonicity formula for the p-capacitary potential.
result A new proof of the Penrose inequality for black holes.
Unified Kantorovich duality for multimarginal optimal transport on Polish spaces.
problem Optimal transport of multiple probability distributions.
method Unified Kantorovich duality theory for multimarginal optimal transport on general Polish product spaces.
result Unified duality theory for multimarginal optimal transport, extending classical two-marginal conjugacy.
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation …
We present a simple theoretical framework, and corresponding practical procedures, for comparing probabilistic models on real data in a traditional machine learning setting. This framework is based on the theory of proper scoring rules, but requires only basic algebra and probability theory to understand and verify. Th…
A new model designs molecular latent vectors for drug discovery.
problem Designing effective molecular descriptors from molecular structures.
method Proposes a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) for variational autoencoding molecular graphs.
result Demonstrates superior prediction performance and robustness compared to existing approaches.
Extends potential theory to Carnot groups, estimating Hausdorff dimension.
problem Estimating Hausdorff dimension of polar sets in Carnot groups.
method Geometric completeness and Riesz potential inequalities in Carnot groups.
result Developed applications in CR geometry and quaternionic CR geometry.
Prob-GParareal adds uncertainty quantification to PinT solvers for differential equations.
problem Uncertainty in numerical solutions of differential equations.
method Prob-GParareal uses Gaussian processes to model Parareal correction function, providing probabilistic forecasts.
result Prob-GParareal yields accurate and robust probabilistic forecasts on various ODE systems.
In the 1980s Alano Ancona developed a profound potential theory on Gromov hyperbolic manifolds of bounded geometry. Since then, such hyperbolic spaces have become basic in geometry, topology and group theory. In this paper we make Ancona's original work, addressed to a rather advanced audience, approachable for a wider…
In the probabilistic topic models, the quantity of interest---a low-rank matrix consisting of topic vectors---is hidden in the text corpus matrix, masked by noise, and the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is a potentially useful tool for learning such a low-rank matrix. However, the connection between this low-rank m…
Potential theory extended to Gromov hyperbolic spaces.
problem Extending potential theory to a new class of spaces.
method Unified framework for Gromov hyperbolic metric measure spaces.
result Boundary Harnack inequalities and complete classification of positive harmonic functions.
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expr…
We propose a novel probabilistic approach to multilevel clustering problems based on composite transportation distance, which is a variant of transportation distance where the underlying metric is Kullback-Leibler divergence. Our method involves solving a joint optimization problem over spaces of probability measures t…
Increasing availability of vehicle GPS data has created potentially transformative opportunities for traffic management, route planning and other location-based services. Critical to the utility of the data is their accuracy. Map-matching is the process of improving the accuracy by aligning GPS data with the road netwo…
Bayesian symbolic regression automates model discovery from data.
problem Learning closed-form mathematical models from data using heuristic methods.
method Probabilistic approach to symbolic regression, connecting to information theory and statistical physics.
result Probabilistic approach provides model plausibility and performance guarantees.
Grad-TTS models speech from text using diffusion probabilistic techniques.
problem Creating high-quality speech from text input.
method Score-based decoder with stochastic differential equations for noise-to-speech transformation.
result Grad-TTS produces mel-spectrograms from text input with competitive quality.