Paper proposes using backpropagation for probabilistic program learning.
problem Difficult to learn probabilistic models from data.
method Learning parameters of a probabilistic program using backpropagation.
result Trains probabilistic models similar to neural networks.
Proposes a probabilistic optimization method for large-scale problems.
problem Large-scale regularized optimization problems.
method Develops a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm and uses Bayesian filtering.
result Makes it possible to solve large-scale problems using well-known Bayesian filters.
Probabilistic models with deep neural networks now handle large data sets.
problem Historical constraints on probabilistic modeling.
method Variational inference, stochastic gradient descent, distributed computation.
result Probabilistic models can now handle large data sets and complex relationships.
Paper introduces a new probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant analysis.
problem Lack of multi-modal structure consideration in existing class-specific methods.
method Formulates a probabilistic model that incorporates multi-modal negative class structure.
result Proposed model can be directly used for class-specific probabilistic classification.
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
problem Performance penalties for small steps in stiff systems.
method Probabilistic exponential integrators that include fast linear dynamics in the prior.
result Proven L-stability and probabilistic error accounting.
Probabilistic numerics expands numerical tasks with black box methods.
problem Difficult conditioning of random variables in numerical tasks.
method Construct probabilistic numerical methods based on final outputs, extrapolating limiting quantities.
result Higher orders of convergence achieved in various numerical tasks.
Method uses neural networks to speed up probabilistic model inference.
problem Efficient inference in probabilistic models.
method Compiles probabilistic programs into neural networks for approximate inference.
result Significant speedups in inference efficiency demonstrated on various models.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Birch automates probabilistic modeling using a Turing-complete language.
problem Automating the matching of probabilistic models with inference methods.
method Formally describes models as programs, revealing structure and form dynamically.
result Probabilistic programming languages can tailor inference methods based on model structure and form.
New method extracts time series data structure for probabilistic programming.
problem Building probabilistic programs from time series data with unknown structure.
method Find descriptive covariance structure in nonparametric Gaussian process regression.
result Descriptive covariance structure efficiently derives accurate probabilistic program.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
New method reduces infinite variance in probabilistic programs with rejection sampling.
problem Infinite variance in naive importance sampling for programs with rejection sampling.
method Developed a new amortized importance sampling estimator with finite variance proof.
result Empirically demonstrated efficiency and correctness compared to existing alternatives.
Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
This work connects LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA through a stochastic perspective.
problem Exploring the theoretical connection between LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA.
method Solving the stochastic linear reconstruction of LLE using expectation maximization.
result LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA are shown to be connected through a stochastic perspective.
UM trains a neural network to approximate marginal distributions in probabilistic programs.
problem High computational cost and lack of theoretical guarantees in inference methods for probabilistic programs.
method Combining samples from a probabilistic program prior with an augmentation method to train a neural network for any conditional marginal distribution.
result UM trains a single neural network to approximate any conditional marginal distribution, amortizing inference costs.
The paper shows how to learn the geometric structure of data manifolds using probabilistic methods.
problem Learning the differential geometric structure of data manifolds embedded in high-dimensional spaces.
method Probabilistic methods with proper regularizations to recover the geometric structure.
result Probabilistic methods can recover the differential geometric structure of data manifolds.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
Stein's method improves probabilistic inference and learning.
problem Improving probabilistic inference and learning methods.
method Constructing Stein discrepancies from Stein operators and Stein sets, discussing their properties.
result Connection between Stein operators and Stein variational gradient descent.
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
ForGAN uses GANs for probabilistic forecasting of sensory data.
problem Challenges in traditional forecasting methods and difficulties in probabilistic methods.
method ForGAN combines GANs with conditional generative adversarial networks to learn data distributions and generate probabilistic forecasts.
result ForGAN outperforms traditional regression methods in probabilistic forecasting of sensory data.
Probabilistic method proves gap estimates on sphere.
problem Proving fundamental gap estimates for Schrödinger operators on spheres.
method Reflection coupling method on Riemannian manifolds.
result Extends probabilistic proof to sphere, generalizing previous results.
A new probabilistic model for CCA reduces data complexity without vectorization.
problem Reducing data complexity for two-dimensional canonical correlation analysis.
method A latent variable model for matrix-variate data with two variational inference approaches.
result The proposed methods outperform existing probabilistic and non-probabilistic CCA approaches.
New probabilistic linear multistep methods derived from Gaussian processes.
problem Solving ordinary differential equations with probabilistic approaches.
method Adams-Bashforth and Adams-Moulton family of linear multistep methods derived from Gaussian process framework.
result Probabilistic versions of deterministic methods converge to the exact solution and local truncation error.
New probabilistic method speeds up calibration of complex models.
problem Calibrating large-scale differential equation models efficiently.
method Probabilistic approach to computing local sensitivities.
result Significantly reduces computational effort for iterative gradient-based calibration.
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
Discusses new probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods in machine and statistical learning.
problem Addressing challenges in statistical, machine, and manifold learning.
method Introduces category of probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods.
result New insights and applications in various learning fields.
Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribut…
Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Inadequate point forecasting methods for capturing full spectrum of volatility outcomes.
method Combines multiple base models (statistical and machine learning) to estimate conditional quantiles of cryptocurrency realized variance.
result QRS method outperforms sophisticated alternatives for Bitcoin volatility forecasting.
Synthesizes static analysis for probabilistic programs.
problem Optimize learning process, verify models, improve programming interface.
method Organize and analyze static analysis techniques for probabilistic programming.
result Future directions for improvement in statistical machine learning.
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
problem Difficulty in fitting probabilistic models due to intractable partition function.
method Minimum Probability Flow (MPF) method for parameter estimation.
result MPF outperforms existing techniques in convergence time and accuracy.
New approach combines geometric and probabilistic methods to estimate manifold dimension in high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating the dimension of manifolds in high-dimensional data.
method Combines a modified box-counting algorithm (geometric) and a new probabilistic method (nearest neighbor distance analysis).
result The combined method is robust, fast, and effective in estimating manifold dimension.
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.
Developing stable and scalable probabilistic ODE solvers for stiff and high-dimensional problems.
problem Stiff and high-dimensional ODEs
method Matrix-free update step and iterative re-linearization
result Improved stability and scalability
New method stabilizes probabilistic ODE solvers for high accuracy.
problem Numerical instability in high-order ODE solvers.
method Accurate initialisation, coordinate change preconditioner, square-root implementation.
result Probabilistic ODE solvers can now achieve high order (up to 11) with stability.
Proposes a probabilistic method for generating semantically-aware adversarial examples.
problem Generating adversarial examples that are difficult for humans to detect while preserving semantics.
method Embeds subjective understanding of semantics as a distribution into adversarial example generation.
result Achieves higher success rates in circumventing adversarial defense mechanisms.
Paper introduces CGPMs for probabilistic data analysis.
problem Difficulty in applying, combining, and comparing different probabilistic techniques.
method Composable generative population models (CGPMs) that extend graphical models and can describe and compose various probabilistic data analysis techniques.
result CGPMs enable efficient and accurate probabilistic data analysis tasks.
Paper quantifies uncertainty in probabilistic models using Gaussian Processes.
problem Assessing reliability of probabilistic machine learning predictions.
method Systematic framework for estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, using Gaussian Processes and Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective approach for quantifying prediction confidence in probabilistic models.
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
Paper presents a new video generation model using diffusion probabilistic methods.
problem Generating high-quality video sequences.
method Denoising diffusion probabilistic models, autoregressive, end-to-end optimization.
result Significant improvements in perceptual quality and probabilistic frame forecasting.
Survey on probabilistic models and variational inference in deep RL.
problem Understanding and applying probabilistic models and variational inference in deep reinforcement learning.
method Detailed derivations and comparisons of recent advances in deep reinforcement learning.
result Comprehensive tutorial on probabilistic graphical models and variational inference in deep reinforcement learning.
Probabilistic line search improves stochastic optimization efficiency.
problem Lack of direct line search methods for stochastic optimization.
method Combines deterministic line search structure with Bayesian optimization concepts.
result Effective removal of learning rate definition for SGD.
Study probabilistic safety of BNNs under adversarial attacks.
problem Evaluate vulnerability of BNNs to adversarial attacks.
method Relaxation techniques from non-convex optimization to compute probabilistic safety bounds.
result Certify probabilistic safety of BNNs with millions of parameters.
A framework assesses the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers using local calibration error.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers beyond traditional metrics.
method I-trustworthy framework linking local calibration to trustworthiness; Kernel Local Calibration Error (KLCE) method for hypothesis testing.
result The effectiveness of the proposed test statistic demonstrated through simulated and real-world datasets.
Adaptive volatility method improves probabilistic financial forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting in financial markets.
method Adapts classical time-varying volatility models with online stochastic optimization.
result Ranked 5th in M6 financial forecasting competition.
Develops inference combinators for probabilistic programs using neural networks.
problem Creating efficient proposals for probabilistic program inference.
method Inference combinators using neural network parameterization of proposals.
result Correct by construction variational methods tailored to specific models.
ptype infers data types robustly in real-world data.
problem Type inference fails with missing data and anomalies.
method Probabilistic robust type inference method.
result Outperforms existing methods.