A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper presents a novel approach to multi-output regression using probabilistic circuits.
Study efficient interactive learning for structured outputs with reliable computation.
State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.
New method improves calibration in multi-output probabilistic models.
We introduce an adaptive output-sensitive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for probabilistic models expressed as programs, Adaptive Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (AdLMH). The algorithm extends Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) by adjusting the probabilities of proposing random variables for modification to improve c…
RePULSe improves language model alignment by reducing undesired outputs without sacrificing overall performance.
A method for consensus prediction from probabilistic classifier outputs.
A new attack for probabilistic classifiers adapts to noise levels.
Wide Boosting improves GB's performance on multivariate output tasks.
Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their ability to represent uncertainty about predictions. In safety-critical applicatio…
PNNs model aleatoric uncertainty in scientific machine learning with high accuracy.
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.
Proposes a method to use generators as EBM foundations without latent inference.
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
TDistNNs improve prediction intervals for neural networks by using t-distributions.
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…
This abstract extends on the previous work (arXiv:1407.2646, arXiv:1606.00075) on program induction using probabilistic programming. It describes possible further steps to extend that work, such that, ultimately, automatic probabilistic program synthesis can generalise over any reasonable set of inputs and outputs, in …
Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.
This paper introduces a new learning rule for probabilistic SNNs that improves log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
This paper proposes an Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time-invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input, multi-output systems that can be expressed by a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model. The parameters of the FIR model corresponding…
Improves Bayesian optimisation for engineering design problems with many variables.
Study develops efficient algorithm for probabilistic penetration response of composite plates.
Third-generation neural networks, or Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), aim at harnessing the energy efficiency of spike-domain processing by building on computing elements that operate on, and exchange, spikes. In this paper, the problem of training a two-layer SNN is studied for the purpose of classification, under a Ge…
Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.
Single-microphone, speaker-independent speech separation is normally performed through two steps: (i) separating the specific speech sources, and (ii) determining the best output-label assignment to find the separation error. The second step is the main obstacle in training neural networks for speech separation. Recent…
Probabilistic models are a critical part of the modern deep learning toolbox - ranging from generative models (VAEs, GANs), sequence to sequence models used in machine translation and speech processing to models over functional spaces (conditional neural processes, neural processes). Given the size and complexity of th…
Study shows limitations and possibilities of learning quantum circuit output distributions.
The combination of a CNN detector and a search framework forms the basis for local object/pattern detection. To handle the waste of regional information and the defective compromise between efficiency and accuracy, this paper proposes a probabilistic model with a powerful search framework. By mapping an image into a pr…
This paper considers probabilistic estimation of a low-rank matrix from non-linear element-wise measurements of its elements. We derive the corresponding approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm and its state evolution. Relying on non-rigorous but standard assumptions motivated by statistical physics, we characteriz…
Probabilistic-driven classification techniques extend the role of traditional approaches that output labels (usually integer numbers) only. Such techniques are more fruitful when dealing with problems where one is not interested in recognition/identification only, but also into monitoring the behavior of consumers and/…
A large number and diversity of techniques have been offered in the literature in recent years for solving multi-label classification tasks, including classifier chains where predictions are cascaded to other models as additional features. The idea of extending this chaining methodology to multi-output regression has a…
Learning, taking into account full distribution of the data, referred to as generative, is not feasible with deep neural networks (DNNs) because they model only the conditional distribution of the outputs given the inputs. Current solutions are either based on joint probability models facing difficult estimation proble…
We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the cov…
PLRM synthesizes labels from mismatched sources for better training sets.
A new measure PC allows fair comparison of AIWP and NWP models.
Study probabilistic safety of BNNs under adversarial attacks.
Proposes a probabilistic digital twin for dynamical systems using sparse Bayesian learning.
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Second-order training techniques such as Variational Ba…
We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over deterministic and stochastic functions and allows for scalability via the unde…
CMDNet simplifies MAP detection for large systems with probabilistic relaxation.
Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are rich probabilistic models that have recently been applied to a wide range of problems, including collaborative filtering, classification, and modeling motion capture data. While much progress has been made in training non-conditional RBMs, these algorithms are not a…
Proposes h-calibration for improving miscalibrated probability outputs of neural networks.
CheXpert++ improves CheXpert's accuracy and usability for medical radiology reports.
Consider a general machine learning setting where the output is a set of labels or sequences. This output set is unordered and its size varies with the input. Whereas multi-label classification methods seem a natural first resort, they are not readily applicable to set-valued outputs because of the growth rate of the o…
Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is to exploit the Bayesian approach by using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Anothe…
Compact Gaussian model approximates deep ensemble predictions.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
Probabilistic numerics expands numerical tasks with black box methods.