Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
This work introduces a method to learn dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements using multiple shooting.
problem Learning dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements is challenging due to system instability.
method A scalable method based on multiple shooting.
result Robust learning of latent representations of dynamical systems from noisy measurements.
The paper proposes a new system ID method from noisy data.
problem System identification of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data.
method Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics, analyzed in the context of least squares and multiple shooting approaches.
result The proposed approach outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error and model generalizability.
Bayesian Neural ODEs improve vessel trajectory prediction with better uncertainty estimates.
problem Challenges in predicting vessel trajectories from irregular AIS data.
method Adopted a Gaussian process (GP) kernel-based prior on the vector field evaluated at measurement points, combined with probabilistic multiple shooting for long trajectories.
result Improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification in vessel trajectory predictions.
MSLs use parallelizable root-finding for efficient ODE and PDE solutions.
problem Efficiently solving initial value problems for ODEs and PDEs.
method Leveraging time-parallel methods, MSLs use parallelizable root-finding algorithms.
result MSLs offer significant speedups in NFEs and inference time.
In this work we study the geodesic structure of the space Σ(X) of compact balls of a complete and locally compact metric length space endowed with the Hausdorff distance dH. In particular, we focus on a geometric condition (referred to as the shooting property) that enables us to give an explicit isometry between …
The paper finds curves minimizing elastic energy pinned at endpoints.
problem Finding curves that minimize elastic energy with fixed endpoints.
method Applying the shooting method to identify and classify critical points.
result Critical points consist of wavelike elasticae, and minimizers have no loops or interior inflection points.
Randomized gradient-based ensemble improves prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in machine learning.
method Randomization and gradient-based aggregation of weakly-correlated estimators.
result The method outperforms existing techniques in terms of increased accuracy.
Modified curve shortening flow constructs λ-Angenent curve.
problem Constructing λ-Angenent curve. method Modified curve shortening flow
result Constructs λ-Angenent curve. We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. T…
Research suggests using deep learning for better recommendation systems.
problem Recommender systems rely on proxies for A/B testing, leading to random success.
method Advocates for using deep learning to improve recommendation performance.
result Deep learning can potentially optimize reward in recommendation systems.
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
problem Computing the most probable paths in stochastic dynamical systems.
method Reformulates the boundary value problem of Hamiltonian systems and uses a neural network to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for the Onsager-Machlup action functional.
result Demonstrates the efficacy and accuracy of the machine learning approach in computing most probable paths for stochastic systems with various types of noise.
In this paper we show the existence of a closed, embedded λ-hypersurfaces Σ⊂R2n. The hypersurface is diffeomorhic to Sn−1×Sn−1×S1 and exhibits SO(n)×SO(n) symmetry. Our approach uses a "shooting method" similar to the approach used by McG…
Classifies solutions to critical sixth order equations with a singularity.
problem Classifying entire positive singular solutions to critical sixth order equations.
method Integral sliding methods, qualitative analysis of ODEs, topological two-parameter shooting technique.
result Solutions are given by a singular radial factor times a periodic solution to a sixth order IVP with constant coefficients.
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
problem Inaccurate probabilistic load predictions due to uncertainties and dynamic changes.
method Online multi-task learning for probabilistic load forecasting.
result Significantly enhances load forecasting accuracy across various scenarios.
Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation…
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.
Paper presents a probabilistic framework for diffusion synchronization.
problem Improper application of heuristics leads to suboptimal results in diffusion synchronization.
method Develops a probabilistic framework to analyze and adapt correlation models for each specific task.
result Achieves better results by identifying optimal correlation models per task.
We present a probabilistic viewpoint to multiple kernel learning unifying well-known regularised risk approaches and recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference relaxations. The framework proposes a general objective function suitable for regression, robust regression and classification that is lower bound of the…
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
MT-SGD samples from multiple target distributions using gradient descent.
problem Sampling from multiple unnormalized target distributions.
method Proposes MT-SGD, a flow of intermediate distributions to sample from multiple target distributions.
result Asymptotic analysis shows MT-SGD reduces to multiple-gradient descent for multi-objective optimization.
Probabilistic theory counts intersections in Riemannian spaces.
problem Counting intersections in Riemannian homogeneous spaces.
method Introduces probabilistic intersection ring HE(M), a graded commutative and associative real Banach algebra. result Probabilistic intersection ring structure defined for spheres, real projective space, and complex projective space.
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
This paper revisits the problem of analyzing multiple ratings given by different judges. Different from previous work that focuses on distilling the true labels from noisy crowdsourcing ratings, we emphasize gaining diagnostic insights into our in-house well-trained judges. We generalize the well-known DawidSkene model…
TinyBayes detects crop diseases from images on edge devices with high accuracy and minimal resources.
problem Automated disease detection for cocoa crops in resource-constrained settings.
method Combines YOLOv8-Nano for lesion localisation, MobileNetV3-Small for feature extraction, and Jacobi prior for Bayesian classification.
result Achieves 78.7% accuracy on Amini Cocoa Contamination Challenge dataset with 9.5 MB model size and 150 ms inference time.
Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often lack variability or robustness. To approach this problem, we propose Probabilist…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
Gaussian process model learns Hamiltonian systems from noisy data.
problem Learning Hamiltonian systems from long, noisy trajectories.
method Efficient decoupled parameterisation, energy-conserving shooting method.
result Robust inference from short and long trajectories.
Cross-domain recommendation has been proposed to transfer user behavior pattern by pooling together the rating data from multiple domains to alleviate the sparsity problem appearing in single rating domains. However, previous models only assume that multiple domains share a latent common rating pattern based on the use…
CAMul forecasts with calibrated and accurate multi-view time-series data.
problem Combining diverse data sources for reliable time-series forecasting.
method CAMul integrates multi-modal data views dynamically, assigning importance based on context.
result CAMul outperforms state-of-the-art models by 25% in accuracy and calibration.
PVI combines federated learning and variational inference for probabilistic model training.
problem Federated learning's lack of probabilistic model uncertainty estimation.
method Partitioned variational inference (PVI) framework for federated probabilistic model training.
result PVI unifies fragmented literature and demonstrates effectiveness in various federated settings.
A method for multidimensional probabilistic electricity market forecasting is proposed.
problem Uncertainty in simultaneous multivariate predictions of electricity markets.
method Repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous multivariate predictions.
result The method provides highly accurate predictions and gains are largest when considering functions of variables.
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this wor…
ProFnet models HDFTS with neural networks, offering scalable probabilistic forecasts.
problem Modeling high-dimensional functional time series with nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions.
method Integrates feedforward and deep neural networks with probabilistic modeling.
result Superior performance in forecasting Japan's mortality rates.
New method improves self-supervised representation learning using probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo integration.
problem Improving self-supervised representation learning for multimodal data.
method Discriminative probabilistic modeling with multiple importance sampling (MIS) for robust Monte Carlo integration.
result Proposes a novel non-parametric method for approximating conditional probability densities through convex optimization.
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
problem Performance penalties for small steps in stiff systems.
method Probabilistic exponential integrators that include fast linear dynamics in the prior.
result Proven L-stability and probabilistic error accounting.
ProJIVE integrates multiple data types to explain joint and individual variation.
problem Integrating multiple types of data on the same subjects.
method Probabilistic EM algorithm for JIVE framework.
result ProJIVE learns biologically meaningful courses of variation and improves accuracy.
clusterBMA combines clustering results from multiple models using Bayesian model averaging.
problem Uncertainty in model selection for clustering.
method Bayesian model averaging to combine results from multiple clustering algorithms.
result ClusterBMA offers probabilistic cluster allocations and quantifies model-based uncertainty.
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Study of a game with multiple players and common shocks using probabilistic methods.
problem Analyze a game with multiple players and common shocks.
method Probabilistic approach to study the game, including mean field and FBSDEs.
result Unique equilibrium found for both N-player and mean field games.
Paper introduces methods for more reliable probabilistic predictions with confidence intervals.
problem Inaccurate labeling of datasets due to unreliable probabilistic predictions from weak labeling functions.
method Proposes a methodology to provide confidence intervals for label probabilities using uncertainty sets of distributions.
result Improves reliability of probabilistic predictions and provides confidence intervals for label probabilities.
We introduce Probabilistic FastText, a new model for word embeddings that can capture multiple word senses, sub-word structure, and uncertainty information. In particular, we represent each word with a Gaussian mixture density, where the mean of a mixture component is given by the sum of n-grams. This representation al…
We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is correct. Instead, it infers the most probable world state, even if only a minority…
Generative adversarial network for probabilistic forecasting of random systems.
problem Forecasting random dynamical systems without distributional assumptions.
method Recurrent neural network and generative adversarial network (GAN) with regularization based on maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result The proposed model successfully forecasts complex stochastic processes with multiple-step predictions.