A novel 3D shape registration method using spectral graph embedding and probabilistic matching.
problem Challenges in 3D shape analysis and registration, especially with large variability.
method Combining spectral graph matching with Laplacian embedding for large graphs, using commute-time embedding and PCA.
result A method to register shapes with different samplings and isometric deformations.
New method improves robust point matching under probabilistic settings.
problem Insufficient theoretical understanding of existing point matching methods.
method Distance profiles and modified matching procedure.
result Improved robustness under probabilistic settings.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Improved video tracking accuracy with active learning.
problem Efficiently predicting object matches in videos with active learning.
method Adversarial approach for active learning with structured prediction domains.
result Better accuracy and computational efficiency for object tracking.
Increasing availability of vehicle GPS data has created potentially transformative opportunities for traffic management, route planning and other location-based services. Critical to the utility of the data is their accuracy. Map-matching is the process of improving the accuracy by aligning GPS data with the road netwo…
Birch automates probabilistic modeling using a Turing-complete language.
problem Automating the matching of probabilistic models with inference methods.
method Formally describes models as programs, revealing structure and form dynamically.
result Probabilistic programming languages can tailor inference methods based on model structure and form.
New method learns PDE solutions from low-fidelity data.
problem Challenges in learning PDE surrogates with scarce data.
method Flow matching in infinite-dimensional space with conditional neural operators.
result Accurately learns PDE solutions across different resolutions and fidelities.
Proposes GM-PLL for better partial label learning.
problem Learning from data with partially labeled instances.
method Reformulates PLL as graph matching problem, incorporating GM scheme and extending matching algorithm.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Proves curves on surfaces intersect at most once, matching known constructions.
problem Curves on surfaces intersecting at most once.
method Probabilistic argument in graph theory.
result Bound on cardinality of curves on surfaces.
CW-Gen models improve probabilistic time series forecasting by incorporating prior information.
problem Challenges in probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts.
method CW-Gen framework that incorporates prior information through conditional whitening. JMCE learns conditional mean and covariance, improving sample quality.
result CW-Gen consistently enhances predictive performance, capturing non-stationary dynamics and inter-variable correlations more effectively than prior-free approaches.
High-quality image synthesis with diffusion models, achieving state-of-the-art FID score.
problem Generating high-quality images from latent variables.
method Training diffusion probabilistic models with a weighted variational bound, inspired by denoising score matching and Langevin dynamics.
result State-of-the-art FID score of 3.17 on CIFAR10 dataset.
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…
Fenrir uses probabilistic numerics to simplify solving initial value problems.
problem Solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations.
method Probabilistic numerics and Gauss--Markov regression.
result The method simplifies parameter estimation in ODEs, making it easier and more robust.
The paper analyzes online learning with probabilistic graph feedback, matching regret bounds with high probability.
problem Online learning with probabilistic graph feedback, covering both one-step and cascade cases.
method Analyzed asymptotic lower bounds and designed algorithms for both cases, matching regret bounds with high probability.
result Regret upper bounds match asymptotic lower bounds with high probability.
Grad-TTS models speech from text using diffusion probabilistic techniques.
problem Creating high-quality speech from text input.
method Score-based decoder with stochastic differential equations for noise-to-speech transformation.
result Grad-TTS produces mel-spectrograms from text input with competitive quality.
iEFM trains CNF models from unnormalized densities efficiently.
problem Training generators from energy functions or unnormalized densities.
method Iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM) with simulation-free objective.
result iEFM outperforms existing methods in probabilistic modeling.
Matching correlated VAR time series databases by recovering matching permutations.
problem Matching perturbed and permuted correlated VAR time series.
method Probabilistic framework modeling, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), linear assignment, convex relaxations.
result Recovery guarantees for perfect or partial recovery of matching permutations, thresholds for σ. TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.
problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.
U-Cast simplifies AI weather forecasting with a standard U-Net and efficient training.
problem Complex AI models limit accessibility and cost for weather forecasting.
method Simple U-Net backbone, deterministic pre-training, and probabilistic fine-tuning with Monte Carlo Dropout.
result U-Cast matches or exceeds state-of-the-art models in accuracy while reducing training and inference costs.
New method calibrates DPMs to improve likelihood bounds.
problem Improving the likelihood bounds of DPMs.
method Deriving concentration bounds and using the optional stopping theorem for data scores to calibrate DPMs.
result Calibrated DPMs can increase likelihood bounds and improve sampling quality.
Improved inference in probabilistic programs using attention mechanisms.
problem Inference failure in existing IC network architectures due to long-range dependency issues.
method Inference compilation with attention mechanism to model latent variables.
result Attention mechanism enhances proposal distributions to better match true posterior.
NGBoost boosts probabilistic predictions using natural gradients.
problem Uncertainty estimation in probabilistic predictions.
method Gradient boosting for probabilistic regression with natural gradient correction.
result NGBoost outperforms existing methods for probabilistic prediction.
The paper analyzes recalibration methods for binary classifiers under distribution shift.
problem Recalibrating binary classifiers to match a target prior probability.
method Analysis of distribution shift assumptions and proposal of new recalibration methods.
result QMM methods provide conservative results for risk weights functions.
Proposes a new algorithm for Sparse Bayesian Learning connected to Stepwise Regression.
problem Sparse Bayesian Learning for probabilistic models.
method Coordinate ascent algorithm (RMP) for SBL, showing connection to Stepwise Regression.
result RMP's noise variance parameter limit connects to Stepwise Regression, with derived guarantees.
We introduce a toy probabilistic model to analyze job-matching processes in recent Japanese labor markets for university graduates by means of statistical physics. We show that the aggregation probability of each company is rewritten by means of non-linear map under several conditions. Mathematical treatment of the map…
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
problem Overconfidence in modern probabilistic regressors under distribution shift.
method FDN uses input-conditioned distributions over network weights, trained with a Monte Carlo beta-ELBO objective.
result FDN produces predictive mixtures whose dispersion adapts to the input, providing shift-aware uncertainty.
Improved graph matching algorithm robust to noise.
problem Finding a bijection between vertex sets of two graphs.
method Uses multistage signature vectors to match vertices.
result Recover matching exactly with high probability for α≤1/(loglogn)C. Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
Innovative PGMs match neural networks, revealing precise approximations during forward propagation.
problem Lack of precise semantics and probabilistic interpretation in neural networks.
method Constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond to neural networks.
result DNNs perform precise approximations of PGM inference during forward propagation.
ScoreGrad predicts multivariate time series with energy-based models, achieving state-of-the-art results.
problem Predicting multivariate time series with generative models while considering noise and distribution.
method ScoreGrad uses continuous energy-based generative models with a feature extraction and score matching module.
result ScoreGrad achieves state-of-the-art results on six real-world datasets.
New analysis shows FM learns underlying dynamical structure, not just trajectory replay.
problem Understanding whether flow matching models learn transferable dynamical structure or merely replay trajectories.
method Derived velocity field implied by FM objective, characterized as a continuous-time dynamical system.
result FM models can be seen as parametric surrogates of nonparametric solutions, providing strong probabilistic forecasts.
Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable modelers to capture effects that are difficult to characterize analytically or su…
We introduce three novel semi-parametric extensions of probabilistic canonical correlation analysis with identifiability guarantees. We consider moment matching techniques for estimation in these models. For that, by drawing explicit links between the new models and a discrete version of independent component analysis …
Proposes using diffusion models for probabilistic stock market predictions.
problem Uncertainties in financial data make deterministic models ineffective for stock market predictions.
method Utilizes Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) and Masked Relational Transformer (MRT).
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in stock movement prediction and portfolio management.
Simple quantile regression method wins GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting competition.
problem Probabilistic load forecasting in electricity markets.
method Quantile regression applied to log-transformed hourly load data, considering seasonalities and long-term trend.
result Method placed second in open data track and fourth in definite data track.
We present a probabilistic variant of the recently introduced maxout unit. The success of deep neural networks utilizing maxout can partly be attributed to favorable performance under dropout, when compared to rectified linear units. It however also depends on the fact that each maxout unit performs a pooling operation…
Paper efficiently infers differential parameters in time-varying models using time score matching.
problem Efficiently inferring differential parameters in time-varying probabilistic models.
method Directly estimates the differential parameter using time score matching and proves consistency of the method.
result Consistent estimation of parameter derivatives in high-dimensional settings.
Paper develops probabilistic bounds for a stochastic gradient algorithm in non-convex problems.
problem Stochastic optimization in non-convex finite sum problems.
method Develops a new dimension-free Azuma-Hoeffding type bound for a martingale difference sequence.
result Empirical results show superior probabilistic performance of Prob-SARAH compared to other algorithms.
Riemannian metric matching learns the geometry of high-dimensional datasets using neural networks.
problem Estimating the geometry of high-dimensional datasets from samples
method Riemannian metric matching using neural networks
result Riemannian metric matching rivals or improves k-NN-based diffusion geometry estimators Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's assumptions and reality. We propose a way to systematically detect and mitigate mism…
Hearing Aid (HA) algorithms need to be tuned ("fitted") to match the impairment of each specific patient. The lack of a fundamental HA fitting theory is a strong contributing factor to an unsatisfying sound experience for about 20% of hearing aid patients. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach to the de…
VCL adds uncertainty to contrastive learning models.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in contrastive learning methods.
method VCL uses a decoder-free framework that maximizes ELBO with InfoNCE loss and KL divergence.
result VCL provides meaningful uncertainty estimates and matches deterministic baselines in accuracy.
The study bounds the number of non-intersecting loops on a surface.
problem Bounding the number of non-intersecting loops on a surface.
method Combines probabilistic and covering space arguments, leveraging LERF property of surface groups.
result The bound matches the size of the largest known construction to within a factor of log g.
EBMs are flexible but hard to train; this paper explains methods.
problem Training Energy-Based Models is difficult due to the unknown normalizing constant.
method Explains MCMC, SM, and NCE for training EBMs, highlighting connections.
result Provides a friendly introduction to modern EBM training methods.
This paper explores combinatorial optimization for problems of max-weight graph matching on multi-partite graphs, which arise in integrating multiple data sources. Entity resolution-the data integration problem of performing noisy joins on structured data-typically proceeds by first hashing each record into zero or mor…
This paper proposes a probabilistic imputation method with uncertainty quantification.
problem Missing value imputation with uncertainty estimation for large datasets.
method Low Rank Gaussian Copula framework that augments PPCA with column-specific transformations.
result The method yields state-of-the-art imputation accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.
Paper identifies tensor ranks via prior predictive matching, solving system of equations.
problem Determining the latent dimensions (ranks) in tensor factorization models.
method Prior predictive moment matching to transform moment matching conditions into a log-linear system of equations.
result Identifies which tensor models have identifiable ranks and derives rank estimators.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
problem Designing fair and balanced mass transport plans.
method Hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) for transport plans.
result Optimal hyperprior for transport plans with uncertain marginals.