Gaussian Process Regression improves damage assessment in structural health monitoring.
problem Inaccurate damage quantification in varying conditions and environments.
method Gaussian Process Regression models with Damage Indices for probabilistic damage assessment.
result The method provides probability-based decision-making for structural health monitoring.
Structural damage due to excessive loading or environmental degradation typically occurs in localized areas in the absence of collapse. This prior information about the spatial sparseness of structural damage is exploited here by a hierarchical sparse Bayesian learning framework with the goal of reducing the source of …
The accurate diagnosis and assessment of neurodegenerative disease and traumatic brain injuries (TBI) remain open challenges. Both cause cognitive and functional deficits due to focal axonal swellings (FAS), but it is difficult to deliver a prognosis due to our limited ability to assess damaged neurons at a cellular le…
Paper proposes model to assess financial risk of grid-ignited wildfires.
problem Financial risk and solvency threats from grid-ignited wildfires.
method Integrated model to evaluate damage costs and risk levels.
result Identifies high-risk areas for preemptive actions.
Automatic post-disaster damage detection using aerial imagery is crucial for quick assessment of damage caused by disaster and development of a recovery plan. The main problem preventing us from creating an applicable model in practice is that damaged (positive) examples we are trying to detect are much harder to obtai…
This paper reviews traditional and modern methods for detecting structural damage using vibrations.
problem Early warning of structural damage to maintain civil structures.
method Vibration-based methods and ML/DL algorithms.
result ML and DL algorithms show superior performance in detecting structural damage.
Proposes a multi-objective variational autoencoder for smart infrastructure damage detection.
problem Detecting and diagnosing damage in smart infrastructure using multi-way data.
method Multi-objective variational autoencoder (MVA) method for smart infrastructure damage detection and diagnosis.
result The method accurately detects structural damage, estimates severity, and captures damage locations.
Near real-time damage diagnosis of building structures after extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) is of great importance in structural health monitoring. Unlike conventional methods that are usually time-consuming and require human expertise, pattern recognition algorithms have the potential to interpret sensor recording…
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
Physics-informed model predicts beam stiffness and monitors structural health.
problem Predicting and monitoring the stiffness of Euler-Bernoulli beams.
method Physics-informed Gaussian process model using the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation.
result Model accurately predicts bending stiffness and detects structural damage.
We address the problem of maintaining high voltage power transmission networks in security at all time. This requires that power flowing through all lines remain below a certain nominal thermal limit above which lines might melt, break or cause other damages. Current practices include enforcing the deterministic "N-1" …
Model shows how discount rates affect intergenerational equity in climate mitigation.
problem Intergenerational equity in climate mitigation decisions.
method Extended DICE model with stochastic discount rates and financing extensions.
result Discount-rate uncertainty amplifies intergenerational inequality in climate mitigation.
The high structural deficient rate poses serious risks to the operation of many bridges and buildings. To prevent critical damage and structural collapse, a quick structural health diagnosis tool is needed during normal operation or immediately after extreme events. In structural health monitoring (SHM), many existing …
New method detects and measures malicious users in recommendation algorithms.
problem Identifying and quantifying malicious user activity in recommendation systems.
method Probabilistic programming for a disentangled model of malicious and regular user behavior.
result Simulation-based measure for quantifying malicious user effects.
The focus in this paper is Bayesian system identification based on noisy incomplete modal data where we can impose spatially-sparse stiffness changes when updating a structural model. To this end, based on a similar hierarchical sparse Bayesian learning model from our previous work, we propose two Gibbs sampling algori…
Robotics has proved to be an indispensable tool in many industrial as well as social applications, such as warehouse automation, manufacturing, disaster robotics, etc. In most of these scenarios, damage to the agent while accomplishing mission-critical tasks can result in failure. To enable robotic adaptation in such s…
Probabilistic methods improve SHM by learning from noisy, incomplete data.
problem Noisy and incomplete SHM data, lack of prior labels.
method Probabilistic algorithms for semi-supervised, active, and multi-task learning.
result Probabilistic methods enhance SHM by incorporating new data.
Optimizes package types for e-commerce to reduce damage and costs.
problem Sub-optimal package types lead to damaged shipments and high costs.
method Multi-stage approach that balances shipment and damage costs using a scalable algorithm.
result Significant cost savings of tens of millions of dollars achieved.
A framework assesses the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers using local calibration error.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers beyond traditional metrics.
method I-trustworthy framework linking local calibration to trustworthiness; Kernel Local Calibration Error (KLCE) method for hypothesis testing.
result The effectiveness of the proposed test statistic demonstrated through simulated and real-world datasets.
Generative Adversarial Networks create synthetic data for structural damage detection.
problem Data scarcity in structural damage detection.
method 1-D Wasserstein Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (1-D WDCGAN-GP) for synthetic data generation.
result Generated synthetic data improves damage detection accuracy in 1-D Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.
Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.
problem Predicting failure in brittle materials under repetitive loads.
method Phase-field model combined with supervised machine learning.
result Framework predicts failure with acceptable accuracy even in noisy data.
Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit from accurate predictions of these economic losses, particularly as populations…
Generative model predicts remaining life of damaged structures.
problem Prognosis of damage and remaining useful life of structures.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) in a population-based SHM framework.
result Algorithm provides confident predictions about structures' remaining useful life.
Research shows higher damages may encourage more disclosure in corporate disputes.
problem How to resolve disputes over undisclosed material events in a way that encourages voluntary disclosure.
method Dynamic continuous-time model of management's equilibrium disclosure decision.
result Increased damages may lead to an endogenous increase in voluntary disclosure.
Paper introduces ML tools for guided wave behaviour in composite materials.
problem Difficult assessment of guided wave behaviour in complex materials.
method Data-driven model using Gaussian processes with physical constraints.
result Structured machine learning models offer advantages like extrapolation and physical interpretation.
Proposes CCE to assess point-wise reliability of neural network predictions.
problem Overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions in neural networks.
method Introduces Conditional Congruence (CCE) metric using conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result CCE exhibits correctness, monotonicity, reliability, and robustness in high-dimensional regression tasks.
A new framework combines CNN and GRU for better structural damage detection.
problem Improving damage detection in structural engineering using machine learning.
method Hierarchical CNN and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) framework to model spatial and temporal relations.
result The proposed HCG framework significantly outperforms existing methods for structural damage detection.
This paper classifies typhoon damage features using aerial photography.
problem Typhoon damages and slow recovery times.
method Aerial photography for classification of eight classes including land covers and disaster areas.
result Visualize and explain typhoon disaster features using convolutional activation maps.
In all types of disasters, from earthquakes to armed conflicts, aid workers need accurate and timely data such as damage to buildings and population displacement to mount an effective response. Remote sensing provides this data at an unprecedented scale, but extracting operationalizable information from satellite image…
Automates infectious disease policy-making via inference in epidemiological models.
problem Improving policy-making for infectious diseases during pandemics.
method Performing inference in existing epidemiological models using a probabilistic programming language.
result Automated inference leads to better disease progression outcomes and policy prescriptions.
In this paper, we propose a new deep feature selection method based on deep architecture. Our method uses stacked auto-encoders for feature representation in higher-level abstraction. We developed and applied a novel feature learning approach to a specific precision medicine problem, which focuses on assessing and prio…
Unified framework for CVA sensitivities, hedging, and risk assessment.
problem Computing and managing Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) sensitivities and risks.
method Probabilistic machine learning and refined regression on simulated data, validated by Monte Carlo methods.
result Identification of optimal sensitivities for practical tasks like hedging and risk assessment.
Machine learning improves measuring climate adaptation impacts.
problem Measuring adaptation to climate change using weather damage elasticities.
method Debiased machine learning approach in panel data settings.
result Long-run impacts of damaging heat exposure significantly offset short-run impacts.
Deviance Voronoi residuals improve earthquake insurance risk assessment.
problem Assessing earthquake insurance risk using spatio-temporal point process models.
method Extended Voronoi residuals and created simulation-based approach.
result Proposed formula for country-wide minimum capital test.
Modeling climate change costs with stochastic interest rates shows inequality, but funding abatement can reduce this.
problem Evaluating the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation with uncertain discount rates.
method Amended DICE model with stochastic interest rates and funding abatement costs.
result Introducing funding abatement can reduce intergenerational inequality in climate change costs.
Ultrasonic guided waves are commonly used to localize structural damage in infrastructures such as buildings, airplanes, bridges. Damage localization can be viewed as an inverse problem. Physical model based techniques are popular for guided wave based damage localization. The performance of these techniques depend on …
We introduce economic models based on Boolean Delay Equations: this formalism makes easier to take into account the complexity of the interactions between firms and is particularly appropriate for studying the propagation of an initial damage due to a catastrophe. Here we concentrate on simple cases, which allow to und…
PRoA assesses deep learning robustness against practical functional perturbations.
problem Inadequate practical robustness verification methods for deep learning systems.
method Probabilistic robustness assessment based on adaptive concentration.
result Statistical guarantees on probabilistic robustness against functional perturbations.
Study quantifies firm risks from nature decline, showing significant equity losses.
problem Estimating the financial impact of nature deterioration on companies.
method Developed metrics (Country Degradation Index, Nature Risk Score) and assessed five environmental hazards.
result Global equities lose 26.8% in a nature decline scenario, with worst firms losing 75%.
Fast risk assessment for autonomous vehicles using learned agent futures.
problem Risk assessment for autonomous vehicles given probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures.
method Non-sampling based methods using deep neural networks for probabilistic predictions, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models for agent positions and controls.
result Effective risk assessment for low probability events using learned models of agent futures.
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
New test assesses probabilistic model calibration without expensive approximations.
problem Assessing calibration of probabilistic models with scores.
method Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy (KCCSD) test using new score-based kernels.
result Control over type-I error with improved scalability and efficiency.
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.
Enhances cyber risk assessment with entity-specific features.
problem Lack of high-quality public cyber incident data.
method Develops an InsurTech framework to enrich cyber incident data with entity-specific attributes and implements machine learning models.
result InsurTech features improve prediction robustness and provide customized risk profiles.
DynNet models dynamic responses of linear and nonlinear systems with fewer variables and higher accuracy.
problem Predicting dynamic responses of linear and nonlinear systems.
method Physics-based recurrent neural network with optimized architecture and training techniques.
result Higher accuracy and fewer trainable variables compared to existing models.
The paper discusses safety assessment for AI systems, focusing on machine learning models.
problem Safety assessment of AI systems, especially machine learning models, in safety-related applications.
method Analyzed AI models as statistical models and proposed a new budget allocation for AI safety.
result Safety assessment of AI systems requires a new approach focusing on the model used, not just the system.
Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical verification methods tailored for extreme events, such as thresholded and weighted …