A new Weyl prior is proposed for Bayesian statistics, offering a more canonical choice for parameter α.
problem Choosing a prior distribution for Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a new Weyl prior based on the Weyl structure on a statistical manifold.
result The Weyl prior is a special case of the α-parallel prior with α = -n, where n is the dimension of the statistical manifold.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to derive for many models of interest. We address this issue by proposing techniques fo…
While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result…
Researchers derive exact priors for finite Bayesian neural networks.
problem Understanding non-Gaussian priors in finite Bayesian neural networks.
method Analytical derivation of function space priors for finite fully-connected feedforward networks.
result Exact solutions for priors of finite networks, including Meijer G-function for linear networks and mixtures for ReLU networks.
PRCD-MAP learns to trust imperfect priors in causal discovery, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Tackles the brittle trade-off between blind trust and rejection of external priors in causal discovery.
method Proposes PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to imperfect priors and modulates regularization in a MAP objective.
result Enjoys a population-level safety guarantee and outperforms existing methods on real-world causal discovery tasks.
Bayesian metalearning improves performance in linear bandits with misspecified priors.
problem Improper priors lead to suboptimal performance in sequential decision-making.
method Proves performance bounds for metalearning priors in stochastic linear bandits and develops a metalearning algorithm.
result Metalearning can improve performance by learning the prior from multiple tasks.
The paper extends and applies a new shrinkage prior in Bayesian factor analysis.
problem Estimating the number of factors in sparse Bayesian factor analysis.
method Introduces and extends a generalized cumulative shrinkage process (CUSP) prior.
result Exchangeable spike-and-slab shrinkage priors imply increasing shrinkage as the column index increases.
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
Review of priors in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem The importance of prior choices in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Overview of different priors and methods of learning priors from data.
result Motivate practitioners to think carefully about prior specification.
Study characterizes training and test risks for MAP regression with Gaussian priors.
problem Understanding high-dimensional behavior of regularized linear regression with informative priors.
method Maximum a posteriori (MAP) regression with Gaussian priors, using random matrix theory.
result Closed-form risk formulas reveal the bias-variance-prior tradeoff and explain double descent.
This work tackles the challenge of Bayesian deep learning by proposing a new framework for matching Gaussian process priors with neural network parameters.
problem The challenge of specifying priors over neural network parameters, which affects the induced functional prior and is uncontrolled.
method The approach involves defining functional priors using Gaussian processes and matching these priors with the functional prior of neural networks through the minimization of Wasserstein distance.
result The proposed framework offers systematic performance improvements over alternative priors and approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches.
This paper uses reference priors to improve deep learning models with unlabeled and labeled data.
problem Improving deep learning models with limited labeled data and unlabeled data from the same or related tasks.
method Develops and applies generalizations of reference priors for deep networks to exploit unlabeled and labeled data.
result Demonstrates new semi-supervised learning and pretraining methods for transfer learning.
Proposes a new prior for complex models to improve prediction accuracy.
problem Difficulty in specifying priors for complex models like neural networks.
method Predictive complexity priors defined by comparing model predictions to a reference model, transferred to parameters via change of variables.
result Improves model predictions by reducing unintuitive effects of traditional priors.
We construct geometric shrinkage priors for Kählerian signal filters. Based on the characteristics of Kähler manifolds, an efficient and robust algorithm for finding superharmonic priors which outperform the Jeffreys prior is introduced. Several ansätze for the Bayesian predictive priors are also suggested. In particul…
Proposes NUV priors for half-space and box constraints.
problem Adding constraints to linear Gaussian models without computational cost.
method Introduces NUV representations for half-space and box constraints.
result Adds constraints to linear Gaussian models without affecting computational tractability.
Statsformer validates and adapts LLM-derived semantic priors for improved supervised learning.
problem Unreliable semantic priors from LLMs can degrade supervised learning performance.
method Adapts LLM-derived feature scores into a family of learner-specific prior-injection mechanisms, calibrating their influence using out-of-fold validation.
result Improves prediction performance by adaptively downweighting unreliable LLM priors, ensuring a guardrailed statistical learning system.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
SAHMM-VAE separates sources adaptively using hidden Markov priors.
problem Unsupervised blind source separation.
method Source-wise adaptive Hidden Markov prior variational autoencoder.
result Different latent dimensions align with different source-specific temporal organizations.
BNNpriors library improves Bayesian neural network inference with various prior distributions.
problem Challenges in choosing good prior distributions for Bayesian neural networks.
method State-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference with a wide range of predefined priors.
result Facilitates foundational discoveries on the nature of the cold posterior effect.
GOAT improves attention mechanisms by learning better priors.
problem Standard attention mechanisms use a naive uniform prior, limiting flexibility and generalization.
method GOAT introduces a trainable, continuous prior that replaces the uniform assumption, maintaining compatibility with optimized kernels.
result GOAT avoids representational trade-offs and learns an extrapolatable prior that combines positional flexibility with length generalization.
We study the problem of learning shared structure \emph{across} a sequence of dynamic pricing experiments for related products. We consider a practical formulation where the unknown demand parameters for each product come from an unknown distribution (prior) that is shared across products. We then propose a meta dynami…
Weak diffusion priors can still perform well in inverse problems.
problem Using mismatched or low-fidelity diffusion priors in inverse problems.
method Extensive experiments and theoretical analysis combining Bayesian-consistency theory and local-correlation analysis.
result Weak priors succeed when measurements are highly informative, and they fail in other regimes.
New method samples Jeffreys prior for objective Bayesian inference.
problem Sampling from Jeffreys prior is challenging.
method Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm
result Samples can be directly used in Bayesian methods.
Optimality of TS with noninformative priors proven for Pareto model.
problem Optimality of Thompson Sampling with noninformative priors for Pareto bandits.
method Proved optimality of TS with certain probability matching priors, showed suboptimality with others, and found effectiveness of truncation procedures.
result TS with certain probability matching priors achieves optimal regret bound for Pareto model.
We study the robustness of active learning (AL) algorithms against prior misspecification: whether an algorithm achieves similar performance using a perturbed prior as compared to using the true prior. In both the average and worst cases of the maximum coverage setting, we prove that all α-approximate algorithms are …
New meta-reinforcement learning method improves performance in finite-horizon MDPs.
problem Improving meta-reinforcement learning in finite-horizon MDPs with shared optimal action-value functions.
method Proposes MTSRL and MTSRL+ algorithms with learned priors and covariance, coupled with prior-alignment technique for meta-regret guarantees.
result Achieves meta-regret guarantees with learned priors and covariance, outperforming prior-independent RL and bandit-only meta-baselines.
The paper discusses the impact of prior densities on Bayesian model selection.
problem The sensitivity of marginal likelihood to prior choice in Bayesian model selection.
method Analyzes the role of prior densities in model selection, discusses improper priors, and proposes solutions.
result Marginal likelihood can be sensitive to prior choice, but improper priors can still be used with caution.
Paper introduces a method to generate physically feasible dynamics with physical priors.
problem Challenges in generating physically feasible dynamics under physical priors.
method Seamlessly incorporates physical priors into diffusion-based generative models.
result Efficient generation of physically realistic dynamics across various physical phenomena.
Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial…
Proposes PE-GP-UCB for time-varying Bayesian optimisation.
problem Time-varying Gaussian process bandits with unknown prior.
method PE-GP-UCB algorithm, relying on consistency of function values with priors.
result Regret bound provided for the proposed algorithm.
New priors improve robustness and interpretability in penalized regression.
problem Improper priors in penalized regression lead to suboptimal solutions.
method Developed non-zero priors inspired by human decision heuristics.
result Robust priors yield excellent worst-case performance across various tasks.
Variational dropout (VD) is a generalization of Gaussian dropout, which aims at inferring the posterior of network weights based on a log-uniform prior on them to learn these weights as well as dropout rate simultaneously. The log-uniform prior not only interprets the regularization capacity of Gaussian dropout in netw…
Bayesian priors for neural networks are improved by incorporating weight correlations and tail behavior.
problem Improving Bayesian priors for neural networks to better reflect true beliefs and performance.
method Analyzed summary statistics of neural network weights in different architectures and incorporated these observations into new priors.
result Improved performance on image classification datasets by using new priors that account for weight correlations and tail behavior.
We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with a prior distribution on the reward distributions. We are interested in studying prior-free and prior-dependent regret bounds, very much in the same spirit as the usual distribution-free and distribution-dependent bounds for the non-Bayesian stochastic bandit. B…
Nested sampling improved for arbitrary priors.
problem Technical obstacle to using nested sampling with arbitrary priors.
method Parametric bijectors trained on samples from a desired prior density.
result Nested sampling can be used with arbitrary priors.
This paper establishes for the first time the predictive performance of speed priors and their computational complexity. A speed prior is essentially a probability distribution that puts low probability on strings that are not efficiently computable. We propose a variant to the original speed prior (Schmidhuber, 2002),…
In this paper the problem of learning appropriate bias for an environment of related tasks is examined from a Bayesian perspective. The environment of related tasks is shown to be naturally modelled by the concept of an {\em objective} prior distribution. Sampling from the objective prior corresponds to sampling differ…
Two EM algorithms estimate prior distributions in mixture of linear regressions.
problem Estimating prior distributions in mixture of linear regressions.
method Two EM algorithms: one for continuous priors, one for discrete priors.
result Both algorithms accurately estimate prior distributions and the number of clusters.
Improved VAEs by training a contrastive prior to match posterior.
problem Prior hole problem in VAEs, leading to poor image generation.
method Introduced a contrastive energy-based prior and trained it using noise contrastive estimation.
result Significant improvement in VAE generative performance on various datasets.
This study explores how choosing noninformative priors affects Thompson Sampling in multiparameter bandit models.
problem The optimality of Thompson Sampling (TS) in multiparameter bandit models depends on the choice of priors, especially when models are complex.
method The study extends regret analysis to uniform distributions and proposes a modified TS policy, TS-T, to achieve asymptotic optimality.
result Changing noninformative priors can significantly affect the expected regret in multiparameter bandit models.
Two algorithms improve GP bandits by selecting priors and minimizing regret.
problem Selecting appropriate GP priors for unknown functions.
method Developed two algorithms: Prior-Elimination GP-TS and HyperPrior GP-TS.
result Established sublinear regret bound for HyperPrior GP-TS.
GRASP simplifies Bayesian regression with grouped predictors using an adaptive NBP prior.
problem Regression with grouped predictors and adaptive shrinkage.
method Normal Beta Prime (NBP) prior with tunable hyperparameters for flexible sparsity control.
result Empirical validation of robust and versatile GRASP across various sparsity and signal-to-noise ratios.
There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or w-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and information-based inference. The w-prior is chosen to make the marginal probability an unbia…
New PAC-Bayes method updates priors without losing confidence information.
problem Lack of sequential prior updates in PAC-Bayes without losing confidence information.
method Recursive PAC-Bayes decomposition of expected loss.
result Sequential prior updates with no information loss.
High-dimensional shrinkage risk depends on the default prior for the common scale.
problem Choosing the default prior for the common scale in high-dimensional shrinkage.
method Using radial-power benchmark to compare variance-flat and standard deviation-flat priors.
result The standard deviation-flat prior has a one-unit asymptotic risk advantage near the origin.
Low-rank matrix estimation from incomplete measurements recently received increased attention due to the emergence of several challenging applications, such as recommender systems; see in particular the famous Netflix challenge. While the behaviour of algorithms based on nuclear norm minimization is now well understood…
This work explores how overparametrization and priors affect Bayesian neural network posteriors.
problem Symmetries, non-identifiabilities, and weight-space priors fragment and inflate BNN posteriors.
method We study the interplay between overparametrization and priors in BNN posteriors, deriving key phenomena and validating through experiments.
result Overparametrization induces structured, prior-aligned weight posterior distributions.