A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study analyzes how probabilistic forecasts improve battery trading strategies in electricity markets.
problem Improvements in statistical forecast quality do not directly translate to economic value in battery trading strategies.
method The study frames battery optimization as a stochastic program based on fully probabilistic forecasts and examines decision quality under different uncertainty models.
result The study identifies two critical flaws in quantile-based trading strategies and provides theoretical justification and empirical evidence.
We consider an auction market in which market makers fill the order book during a given time period while some other investors send market orders. We define the clearing price of the auction as the price maximizing the exchanged volume at the clearing time according to the supply and demand of each market participants.…
The presence of discrete dividends complicates the derivation and form of pricing formulas even for vanilla options. Existing analytic, numerical, and theoretical approximations provide results of varying quality and performance. Here, we compare the analytic approach, developed and effective for European puts and call…
This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation …
Study shows marketable order routing to wholesalers benefits all traders, leading to lower market depth and price volatility.
problem Determining the preference of retail traders for marketable order routing.
method Two models: one for market makers competing for retail order flow (Bertrand model) and another for price-taking competitive liquidity providers (open exchange model).
result Routing marketable orders to wholesalers is preferred by all traders, leading to mean reverting inventories and lower market depth.
Companies try to maximize their profits by recovering returned products of highly uncertain quality and quantity. In this paper, a reverse logistics network for an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) is presented. Returned products are selected for remanufacturing or scrapping, based on their quality and proportional…
We study equilibrium in hedonic markets, when consumers and suppliers have reservation utilities, and the utility functions are separable with respect to price. There is one indivisible good, which comes in different qualities; each consumer buys 0 or 1 unit, and each supplier sells 0 or 1 unit. Consumer types, supplie…
Optimizes trading policies using future price forecasts.
problem Static reinforcement learning agents lack mechanisms for using price forecasts at inference time.
method FPILOT framework inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC). Uses a predictive model to construct an allocation-based imagined return objective at each decision step.
result Consistent improvements in total return and risk-adjusted metrics across various policy learning algorithms.
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However, the model for the underlying asset price process is typically based on data and…
We study the multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI), which is a vector quantity that measures the net flow of buy and sell orders at different price levels in a limit order book (LOB). Using a recent, high-quality data set for 6 liquid stocks on Nasdaq, we fit a simple, linear relationship between MLOFI and the conte…
We investigate the pricing of financial options under the 2-hypergeometric stochastic volatility model. This is an analytically tractable model that reproduces the volatility smile and skew effects observed in empirical market data. Using a regular perturbation method from asymptotic analysis of partial differential eq…
Recommenders have become widely popular in recent years because of their broader applicability in many e-commerce applications. These applications rely on recommenders for generating advertisements for various offers or providing content recommendations. However, the quality of the generated recommendations depends on …
We consider closed-form approximations for European put option prices within the Heston and GARCH diffusion stochastic volatility models with time-dependent parameters. Our methodology involves writing the put option price as an expectation of a Black-Scholes formula and performing a second-order Taylor expansion aroun…
Fast pricing of American-style options has been a difficult problem since it was first introduced to financial markets in 1970s, especially when the underlying stocks' prices follow some jump-diffusion processes. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to generate tight upper bounds on the Bermudan option price witho…
A popular approach to selling online advertising is by a waterfall, where a publisher makes sequential price offers to ad networks for an inventory, and chooses the winner in that order. The publisher picks the order and prices to maximize her revenue. A traditional solution is to learn the demand model and then subseq…
In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of Catastrophic Mortality Bonds and, in particular, we examine the case of the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003 as a primary example of this class of assets. This bond was the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond to be launched in the market and encapsulates the behaviour of …
Taleb (2018) claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via no-arbitrage pricing techniques and argued that popular forecasts of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had violated arbitrage boundaries. We show that under mild assumptions all such political forecasts are arbitra…
This study simulates the evolution of artificial economies in order to understand the tax relevance of administrative boundaries in the quality of life of its citizens. The modeling involves the construction of a computational algorithm, which includes citizens, bounded into families; firms and governments; all of them…
We develop a probabilistic consumer choice framework based on information asymmetry between consumers and firms. This framework makes it possible to study market competition of several firms by both quality and price of their products. We find Nash market equilibria and other optimal strategies in various situations ra…