Method constructs confidence regions for linear models with arbitrary predictors.
problem Constructing confidence regions for linear models with non-linear predictors.
method Mixed Integer Linear Programming for constraints.
result Empty confidence regions for hypothesis testing.
Bayesian model averaging under predictor redundancy
problem Reporting Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target
method Using hard or soft regions of support space
result Region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information
We present a new active learning algorithm that adaptively partitions the input space into a finite number of regions, and subsequently seeks a distinct predictor for each region, both phases actively requesting labels. We prove theoretical guarantees for both the generalization error and the label complexity of our al…
Project aims to improve time series prediction intervals.
problem Difficulty in computing joint prediction regions for time series data.
method Wolf and Wunderli's method applied with bootstrapping and novel standard error estimation.
result Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of the method.
flexBART improves BART for categorical predictors by creating flexible tree partitions.
problem Limitation of BART in handling categorical predictors with one-hot encoding.
method flexBART re-implements BART with regression trees that can assign multiple levels to both branches of a decision tree node, and proposes a new decision rule prior for spatial data.
result flexBART often yields improved predictive performance and scales better to larger datasets than existing BART implementations.
SOCP uses SOM to find groups and local calibration buffers for better regional coverage.
problem Heterogeneous regional coverage gaps in conformal prediction.
method Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for group discovery; local calibration buffers at BMU or fixed grid.
result Reduces regional coverage gaps on 7/8 benchmarks by 7.1%.
New framework uses time series features for predicting streamflow in ungauged areas.
problem Predicting streamflow in areas without gauging stations.
method Developed regression-based streamflow regionalization using a wide range of time series features from large datasets.
result Certain time series features, like entropy and autocorrelation, are better predictors of streamflow than traditional catchment attributes.
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.
problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.
The paper tackles time series data by applying conformal prediction with nearest neighbors.
problem Time series data violates the exchangeability assumption required for conformal prediction.
method The approach uses the nearest neighbors method with fast parameter tuning and weighted nearest neighbors (FPTO-WNN) to construct reliable prediction intervals.
result Data analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Proposes TCV for selecting models in regions of interest.
problem Selecting models for specific regions of predictor variables.
method Targeted Cross-Validation (TCV) using weighted L2 loss.
result TCV is consistent in selecting the best performing candidate under weighted L2 loss.
Proposes bivariate DeepKriging for efficient wind field prediction.
problem Challenges in predicting large-scale bivariate wind fields with high spatial variability and heterogeneity.
method Spatially dependent deep neural network (DNN) with embedding layer using spatial radial basis functions.
result Outperforms traditional cokriging predictors and reduces computation time.
Interactive visualization helps understand complex machine learning models.
problem Low interpretability of machine learning models.
method Interactive slice visualization of predictor space, using interaction or touring algorithms.
result Enhances understanding and validation of machine learning model fits.
We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we develop a localized spatio-temporal covariance model of the process that can capture s…
Spatially-sparse predictors are good models for brain decoding: they give accurate predictions and their weight maps are interpretable as they focus on a small number of regions. However, the state of the art, based on total variation or graph-net, is computationally costly. Here we introduce sparsity in the local neig…
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy on unseen test samples.
method Bounding empirical training error smoothed across activation regions and using it to discard high-risk test samples.
result Discarding high-risk test samples based on error bounds improves prediction accuracy by up to 20%.
Self-supervised reward prediction improves RL in sparse reward settings.
problem Data efficiency and sparse reward signals in reinforcement learning.
method Learning a state representation for reward prediction and using it to shape rewards.
result Self-supervised reward prediction enhances RL algorithms in single-goal environments.
Paper introduces new importance metrics for machine learning models, linking them to CATE.
problem Interpreting black-box models' importance metrics due to data dependence and non-parametric nature.
method Introduces MVIM and CVIM, proposing permutation-based estimation and bias-variance decomposition.
result MVIM and CVIM have a quadratic relationship with CATE, addressing bias in correlated predictors.
The paper develops exact and approximate conformal inference methods for multi-output regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-output regression predictions.
method Exact derivations and approximations of conformal inference p-values for linear multi-output predictors, and efficient methods for nonlinear predictors.
result Efficient methods for approximating conformal prediction regions for multi-output predictors, both linear and nonlinear.
Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without disclosing data between the sources. We propose that each data source applies a trans…
Develops methods for selecting and estimating smooth functional coefficients in high-dimensional multivariate functional data.
problem Functional predictor selection and estimation of smooth functional coefficients in high-dimensional multivariate functional data.
method Functional group-sparse regression methods in a generic Hilbert space of infinite dimension.
result Consistency of estimation and selection (oracle property) under infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces.
Recent results in the literature indicate that a residual network (ResNet) composed of a single residual block outperforms linear predictors, in the sense that all local minima in its optimization landscape are at least as good as the best linear predictor. However, these results are limited to a single residual block …
Resting-state brain networks represent the intrinsic state of the brain during the majority of cognitive and sensorimotor tasks. However, no study has yet presented concise predictors of task-induced vigilance variability from spectrospatial features of the pre-task, resting-state electroencephalograms (EEG). We asked …
Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) (Goodfellow et al., 2014) are an effective method for training generative models of complex data such as natural images. However, they are notoriously hard to train and can suffer from the problem of missing modes where the model is not able to produce examples in certain regions o…
Machine learning is used to approximate density functionals. For the model problem of the kinetic energy of non-interacting fermions in 1d, mean absolute errors below 1 kcal/mol on test densities similar to the training set are reached with fewer than 100 training densities. A predictor identifies if a test density is …
How do regions acquire the knowledge they need to diversify their economic activities? How does the migration of workers among firms and industries contribute to the diffusion of that knowledge? Here we measure the industry, occupation, and location-specific knowledge carried by workers from one establishment to the ne…
We study large-scale spatial systems that contain exogenous variables, e.g. environmental factors that are significant predictors in spatial processes. Building predictive models for such processes is challenging because the large numbers of observations present makes it inefficient to apply full Kriging. In order to r…
Let (X,Y) be a random variable consisting of an observed feature vector X∈X and an unobserved class label Y∈{1,2,...,L} with unknown joint distribution. In addition, let D be a training data set consisting of n completely observed independent copies of (X,Y). Usual classification…
New algorithm quantifies uncertainty in regression models for complex data types.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models for complex data types.
method Model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures and kernel mean embeddings.
result Provides faster convergence rates and non-asymptotic guarantees for prediction regions.
The paper derives uniform stability-based coverage bounds for conformal prediction methods.
problem Establishing theoretical guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
method Uniform stability perspective applied to full-conformal, jackknife+, and CV+ prediction regions.
result Coverage bounds for finite-dimensional models derived using a concentration argument.
The paper tackles extrapolation in extreme regions of regression problems.
problem Extrapolation on the tails of covariates in continuous regression problems.
method Statistical regression on a subsample of furthest observations, focusing on their angular components, using multivariate regular variation theory.
result Quantifies predictive performance on tail regions in terms of excess risk, presenting it as a finite sample risk bound with a bias-variance decomposition.
New statistical guarantee improves conformal predictors for small datasets.
problem Uncertainty quantification for small datasets in surrogate models.
method Proposed a new statistical guarantee for conformal predictors, converging to standard CP for large datasets.
result The new guarantee offers relevant information about coverage for small data sizes, improving applicability.
This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees provide prediction sets for the underlying stochastic process with a guaranteed fi…
Proposes a tool to contrast global vs personalized models in clinical prediction.
problem Balancing global vs personalized models in clinical prediction.
method Localized regression approach using autoencoder for dimension reduction.
result Identification of patient subgroups where global models fall short.
This work improves multi-task regression performance using approximations of full-conformal prediction.
problem Jointly solve multiple regression tasks with better performance than individual tasks.
method Design an approximating prediction region in RKHS for full-conformal multi-task regression.
result The approximating prediction region improves upon split-conformal prediction on synthetic data.
This study uses TDA to map corporate failure, revealing distinct regions of risk.
problem Understanding and predicting corporate default risk.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) applied to Altman's Z-score model.
result Firms do not cluster neatly along default predictors, suggesting complex risk landscapes.
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
problem Challenges in explaining generalization of deterministic non-smooth deep nets.
method De-randomized PAC-Bayes margin bounds for deterministic non-convex and non-smooth predictors.
result New bounds avoid large Lipschitz constants, providing generalization guarantees.
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.
problem Wasteful, hard-to-interpret, and prone to overfitting of traditional one-hot encoding for high-cardinality categorical predictors.
method Clustering categories of categorical predictors through a numerical method that preserves or improves accuracy while reducing the number of coefficients.
result Clustering categories of categorical predictors reduces complexity substantially without harming accuracy.
The customizable nature of deep learning models have allowed them to be successful predictors in various disciplines. These models are often trained with respect to thousands or millions of instances for complicated problems, but the gathering of such an immense collection may be infeasible and expensive. However, what…
The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
problem Comparing predictor importance in classification problems with categorical response variables.
method The approach is based on the categorical Gini correlation (CGC) and tests differences in CGCs across predictor groups.
result The proposed methodology accommodates predictors of arbitrary and unequal dimensions and allows for dependence between predictor groups.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
WeakNAS uses a set of weaker predictors to find top architectures with fewer samples.
problem Finding the best neural architecture with heavy computation costs.
method Proposes a paradigm shift from fitting the whole architecture space to progressively fitting a search path through a set of weaker predictors.
result WeakNAS produces coarse-to-fine iteration to gradually refine the ranking of sampling space, requiring fewer samples to find top-performance architectures.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
Predicting illegal fishing on Patagonian Shelf using machine learning.
problem Improving detection of illegal fishing to conserve fish stocks.
method Combining vessel tracking data with oceanographic seascapes and machine learning models.
result Machine learning models predict illegal fishing with 69-96% confidence.
This paper continues study, both theoretical and empirical, of the method of Venn prediction, concentrating on binary prediction problems. Venn predictors produce probability-type predictions for the labels of test objects which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under the standard assumption that the observations ar…
Derives bounds for deterministic predictors using smooth loss functions.
problem Generalizing probabilistic predictors to deterministic ones.
method Exploits smoothness properties of loss and predictor classes, controlling the Jensen gap class through Rademacher complexity.
result Derives bounds for deterministic predictors involving flatness quantities from Jacobians and Hessians.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.