Optimizes kernel density ratios for better predictions and information measures.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel density estimates for density ratios.
method Derives an optimal weight function using calculus of variations.
result Reduces bias in kernel density estimates, leading to improved prediction posteriors and information-theoretic measures.
Paper proposes an alternative to set losses for predicting unordered variables without imposing structure.
problem Learning unordered variables with unknown interrelations without imposing structure.
method Viewing set prediction as conditional density estimation and using deep energy-based models with gradient-guided sampling.
result Empirically demonstrates capability to learn multi-modal densities and produce different plausible predictions.
Proposes a neural network for estimating traffic density uncertainty.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in deep learning traffic prediction models.
method Quantile Graph Wavenet, a Spatio-Temporal neural network trained to estimate density.
result Produces uncertainty estimates efficiently without sampling.
Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
A new method predicts electron density accurately from atom-centered models.
problem Predicting electron density accurately from atom-centered models.
method Gradient-based approach to minimize loss function in an optimized sparse feature space.
result Extremely accurate predictions of electron density and total energies.
A new network predicts object/non-object masks to improve crowd counting.
problem Counting objects in images or videos with varying density.
method Proposes a network with a branch for object/non-object mask prediction, integrating it into the density map estimation.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods on five public datasets.
Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
problem Inability of existing approaches to provide reliable uncertainty estimates for deep neural networks.
method Develops a density uncertainty layer architecture that satisfies the proposed criterion.
result Density uncertainty layers provide more reliable uncertainty estimates and robust out-of-distribution detection.
The paper tackles video prediction by estimating conditional densities implicitly.
problem Temporal prediction uncertainty and high-dimensional probabilistic inference in natural scenes.
method Score-based conditional density estimation using sequence-to-image networks trained on a resilience-to-noise objective.
result The method handles occlusion boundaries and weights predictive evidence by reliability.
Combines coarse learners for nonparametric probabilistic regression.
problem Predicting full probability density functions without strong assumptions.
method Combining gradient boosted forests trained on coarsened target values.
result Prediction intervals have high fidelity and provide valuable insights.
DenSNet learns electron densities for molecular dynamics, enabling accurate spectroscopic predictions.
problem Lack of accurate electronic observables in MLIPs for molecular dynamics.
method DenSNet uses SE(3)-equivariant neural networks to predict electron densities and total energy.
result DenSNet predicts infrared spectra with excellent agreement to experimental data.
New method narrows prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
problem Insufficiently conservative prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
method Conformal inference using conditional density estimates.
result Narrower prediction intervals compared to existing methods.
Estimates prediction uncertainty in neural networks using density estimation in representation space.
problem Incorrect predictions with high confidence from models trained on limited data.
method Estimates training data density in representation space and uses it to predict model uncertainty.
result Detects out-of-distribution data without prior exposure, improving model reliability.
JAPAN uses flow-based models to create adaptive prediction areas with better coverage guarantees.
problem Inadequate prediction areas from existing conformal prediction methods, especially for multimodal distributions.
method JAPAN employs density-based conformity scores using flow-based models to construct context-adaptive prediction areas.
result JAPAN produces more accurate and context-adaptive prediction areas compared to existing methods.
We investigate the forecasting ability of the most commonly used benchmarks in financial economics. We approach the usual caveats of probabilistic forecasts studies -small samples, limited models and non-holistic validations- by performing a comprehensive comparison of 15 predictive schemes during a time period of over…
JEPAs learn data density by predicting perturbed samples, enabling density estimation.
problem Representation collapse in latent spaces.
method Combines latent-space prediction and anti-collapse terms to estimate data density.
result JEPAs can estimate sample probabilities efficiently and in closed-form.
A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.
problem Guaranteed coverage for time-series data prediction intervals.
method Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR) using quantile random forest.
result SCDR achieves guaranteed asymptotic coverage and outperforms existing methods in simulations.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
Quantum method improves neural density estimation in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional density estimation with poor performance and high computational complexity.
method Adaptive Fourier features based on quantum density matrices, integrated with neural networks.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
CoDrug uses KDE to create valid prediction sets for drug molecules under covariate shift.
problem Creating reliable uncertainty estimates for drug properties from computational models.
method CoDrug employs an energy-based model and KDE to assess and rectify distribution shift.
result CoDrug reduces the coverage gap by over 35% compared to non-adjusted conformal prediction sets.
Tree-based synthesis improves forecast accuracy in GDP and inflation.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in GDP and inflation.
method Developed a nonparametric synthesis function using regression trees.
result Tree-based synthesis leads to improved forecast accuracy.
Equivariant graph neural networks predict electron density for molecules, liquids, and solids.
problem Predicting electron density for molecules, liquids, and solids using machine learning.
method Equivariant graph neural networks for predicting electron density at query points.
result The model predicts electron density with accuracy beyond state of the art and significantly faster than traditional DFT methods.
Mixture Density RNNs learn to model predictions as multiple Gaussian distributions.
problem Understanding predictions made by MD-RNNs in complex environments.
method Analyzed predictions from trained MD-RNNs, focusing on their Gaussian components.
result MD-RNNs' Gaussian components separately model stochastic events and scenarios governed by different rules.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
This work uses neural density estimation to analyze laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy data, enabling accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification.
problem Inference of probability densities in high-dimensional spectral data is often intractable.
method Normalizing flows on structured spectral latent spaces for density estimation and uncertainty quantification.
result The approach enables generation of realistic spectral samples and accurate prediction of state vectors with well-calibrated uncertainties.
We study the strong predictable representation property in filtrations initially enlarged with a random variable L. We prove that the strong predictable representation property can always be transferred to the enlarged filtration as long as the classical density hypothesis of Jacod (1985) holds. This generalizes the ex…
The MoN loss fails to accurately represent ground truth probability density functions in probabilistic trajectory prediction.
problem Improving the diversity of probabilistic trajectory predictions in autonomous driving and robot planning.
method Proof and validation of the MoN loss's inaccuracy and proposed solutions to correct it.
result The MoN loss approximates the square root of the ground truth probability density function, not the function itself.
Machine learning predicts nuclear physics parameters with high accuracy.
problem Predicting nuclear physics parameters for superheavy elements.
method Gradient boosted trees algorithm trained on nuclear data.
result Predictions have standard deviation from 0.00035 to 0.73.
The study analyzes online predictions for non-stationary time series under model misspecification.
problem Analyzing predictive properties of statistical methods in non-stationary time series under model misspecification.
method Defining Kullback-Leibler risk, proving minimax predictive densities for dynamic models, extending results to multiple predictive densities.
result Dynamic random walk models produce exact minimax predictive densities under Gaussian assumptions and semi-martingale processes.
Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.
Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
CMDRNN predicts user location using WiFi fingerprints with deep learning.
problem Predicting user activity with WiFi fingerprints is challenging due to high dimensionality.
method Combines CNN, RNN, and MDN to model high-dimensional time-series data.
result CMDRNN effectively predicts user location using WiFi fingerprints.
Conditional density estimation generalizes regression by modeling a full density f(yjx) rather than only the expected value E(yjx). This is important for many tasks, including handling multi-modality and generating prediction intervals. Though fundamental and widely applicable, nonparametric conditional density estimat…
TDX predicts evolving distributions from streaming data.
problem Predicting density at future time points in evolving data.
method Dynamic basis expansion with isometric log-ratio transformation.
result TDX accurately captures monotonous drift patterns.
VB approximates posterior mean perfectly in linear Gaussian VAR models.
problem Unknown approximation error of VB in VAR models.
method Derive approximation error in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive density, and KL divergence.
result VB approximates posterior mean perfectly.
Bayesian Deep Noise Neural Network (B-DeepNoise) estimates predictive densities and uncertainty.
problem Estimating predictive densities and uncertainty in deep neural networks.
method Extends random noise to all hidden layers, using Gibbs sampling for posterior computation.
result Superior performance in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
New method uses geometric properties for better density estimation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in ambiguous tasks.
method Winner-takes-all training with centroidal Voronoi tessellations.
result Improved quantization and density estimation.
BO method improved by density-ratio estimation for better efficiency and scalability.
problem Limitations in Bayesian optimization due to analytical tractability of predictive models.
method Reformulated Bayesian optimization by casting expected improvement as a binary classification problem.
result Improved efficiency and scalability of Bayesian optimization.
A new model predicts crop yields with high accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in crop yield forecasting due to weather extremes.
method Quantile random forest and Epanechnikov kernel function.
result The model captures crop yields with high coverage probability and provides feature importance.
GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.
problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Two deep learning models improve indoor location prediction from WiFi fingerprints.
problem Indoor location prediction from WiFi fingerprints.
method Convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network and VAE-based semi-supervised learning model.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in real-world datasets.
Paper predicts in-situ metro passenger density using smart card data.
problem Crowd management in metro systems.
method Statistical models and EM algorithm for time-dependent OD matrix and travel time cost estimation.
result Accurate prediction of in-situ passenger density for future time points.
We develop a novel "decouple-recouple" dynamic predictive strategy and contribute to the literature on forecasting and economic decision making in a data-rich environment. Under this framework, clusters of predictors generate different latent states in the form of predictive densities that are later synthesized within …
Improved predictive posterior density estimation through optimized importance sampling.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in posterior predictive densities.
method Optimized importance sampling using a test-time variational proxy.
result Significantly improved estimates of predictive posterior densities.
LADaR framework calibrates machine learning models for instance-wise predictions.
problem Challenges in assessing and calibrating predictive distributions for complex inputs.
method Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities (LADaR) framework and extttCal−PIT algorithm. result Achieves better instance-wise calibration than existing methods in galaxy distance estimation.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.
By representing words with probability densities rather than point vectors, probabilistic word embeddings can capture rich and interpretable semantic information and uncertainty. The uncertainty information can be particularly meaningful in capturing entailment relationships -- whereby general words such as "entity" co…
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy on unseen test samples.
method Bounding empirical training error smoothed across activation regions and using it to discard high-risk test samples.
result Discarding high-risk test samples based on error bounds improves prediction accuracy by up to 20%.