Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
A stability-based method selects the most desirable conformal prediction set.
problem Selecting the most desirable conformal prediction set from multiple valid sets invalidates coverage guarantees.
method A stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set.
result The stability-based approach maintains coverage guarantees for the selected prediction set.
Conformal prediction sets improve human decision making by quantifying model uncertainty.
problem Humans signal uncertainty and offer alternatives when unsure, but machine learning models often lack this feature.
method Conducted a randomized controlled trial with human subjects given conformal prediction sets.
result Human accuracy improves when given conformal prediction sets compared to fixed-size prediction sets.
We improve prediction set coverage by assigning weights to individual sets.
problem Aggregating multiple prediction sets weakens overall coverage guarantee.
method Propose a framework for weighted aggregation of prediction sets.
result Achieve tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between 1−2α and 1−α guarantees. EENNs improve inference efficiency but need nested prediction sets for reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Non-nested prediction sets from standard uncertainty quantification methods in EENNs.
method Introduced anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs) tailored for EENNs.
result AVCSs generate nested prediction sets across EENN exits, addressing the issue of non-nested sets.
Current approaches for predicting sets from feature vectors ignore the unordered nature of sets and suffer from discontinuity issues as a result. We propose a general model for predicting sets that properly respects the structure of sets and avoids this problem. With a single feature vector as input, we show that our m…
COMA combines prediction sets from multiple models for online, adaptive prediction.
problem Combining multiple prediction models with uncertainty guarantees.
method Online model aggregation using weighted voting of conformal prediction sets.
result COMA retains coverage guarantees under negative correlation assumptions.
Paper proposes an alternative to set losses for predicting unordered variables without imposing structure.
problem Learning unordered variables with unknown interrelations without imposing structure.
method Viewing set prediction as conditional density estimation and using deep energy-based models with gradient-guided sampling.
result Empirically demonstrates capability to learn multi-modal densities and produce different plausible predictions.
Develops methods to select informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
problem Selecting informative prediction sets with FCR control in supervised learning.
method Unified framework for informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
result First procedures providing FCR control for informative prediction sets.
Algorithm constructs prediction sets with PAC guarantees in label shift settings.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification in the face of distribution shift.
method Estimates predicted probabilities and confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty through Gaussian elimination to compute confidence intervals and construct prediction sets.
result Satisfies PAC guarantees and produces smaller, more informative prediction sets.
A framework for private prediction sets using conformal prediction and differential privacy.
problem Jointly addressing reliability and privacy in machine learning predictions.
method Split conformal prediction with privatized quantile subroutine.
result Private prediction sets can be generated from privately-trained models.
Conformal prediction helps quantify uncertainty but its use by humans is unclear.
problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions for human decision making.
method Decision theoretic framework for evaluating predictive uncertainty.
result Conformal prediction sets and human decision making goals are in tension.
Optimizes minimum-volume prediction sets for multivariate regression.
problem Lack of efficient methods for multivariate conformal prediction.
method Optimization-driven framework for minimum-volume covering sets.
result Efficient and informative prediction sets with tight coverage.
One-shot federated learning method for prediction sets.
problem Constructing prediction sets in a one-shot federated learning setting.
method Quantile-of-quantiles estimator for one-shot federated learning with privacy.
result Achieves desired coverage and length similar to centralized setting.
Generalizes conformal prediction to multiple learnable parameters for efficient prediction sets.
problem Learning valid and efficient prediction sets with low-capacity function classes.
method Constrained empirical risk minimization (ERM) with gradient-based optimization of differentiable surrogate losses and Lagrangians.
result Achieves approximate valid population coverage and near-optimal efficiency within class.
This work introduces COLA, a strategy to aggregate conformal prediction sets efficiently.
problem Efficiently combining multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size.
method Introduces COnfidence-Level Allocation (COLA) to optimally allocate confidence levels across sets.
result COLA achieves smaller prediction sets than state-of-the-art methods while maintaining valid coverage.
Optimal decision-making using prediction sets to minimize risk.
problem Using prediction sets optimally for decision-making in uncertain scenarios.
method Decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize expected loss against a worst-case distribution.
result ROCP algorithm reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, especially in costly out-of-set errors.
Paper discusses optimal CP for second-order predictions.
problem How to incorporate second-order predictions into conformal prediction.
method Introduces Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) for second-order predictions and applies conformal risk control for compromised validity.
result BPS provides the smallest prediction sets with conditional coverage.
Develops methods to adjust prediction set coverage based on post-selection analysis.
problem Adjusting prediction set coverage after initial analysis to better fit specific needs.
method Post-selection conformal inference to adjust miscoverage levels.
result Allows for trade-off between coverage and prediction set quality.
The paper analyzes the expected size of conformal prediction sets.
problem Lack of finite-sample analysis and guarantees for prediction set sizes.
method Theoretical quantification and empirical computation of expected set size.
result Derives point estimates and high-probability interval bounds for prediction set size.
ERAPS builds prediction sets for time-series data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex machine learning methods for time-series data.
method ERAPS is an ensemble-based framework for constructing prediction sets for time-series data, allowing unknown dependencies within features and responses.
result ERAPS demonstrates valid marginal and conditional coverage and yields smaller prediction sets than competing methods.
Conformal prediction sets can lead to unfair outcomes.
problem Disparate impact in decision-making with conformal prediction sets.
method Experiments with human participants to demonstrate disparate impact and propose equalizing set sizes across groups.
result Providing prediction sets that satisfy Equalized Coverage increases disparate impact compared to marginal coverage.
Paper improves conformal prediction for imprecise training data.
problem Applying conformal prediction to partially labeled data.
method Generalizes conformal prediction for set-valued training and calibration data.
result Validates the proposed method and shows it outperforms baselines.
New algorithms for hierarchical classification using conformal prediction.
problem Valid prediction sets in hierarchical classification tasks.
method Extended split conformal prediction framework with two inference algorithms.
result Empirical evaluations show effectiveness in achieving nominal coverage.
Improved set prediction model using multiset-equivariant operations and approximate implicit differentiation.
problem Existing set prediction models struggle with multisets and cannot represent certain functions.
method Introduced multiset-equivariance, improved DSPN with approximate implicit differentiation, and applied to CLEVR object property prediction.
result Significantly improved object property prediction on CLEVR dataset.
MCP extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions without data splitting.
problem Fixed prediction set shapes in scalar score functions limit coverage guarantees.
method MCP uses a single optimization problem for prediction set design and calibration, eliminating data splitting.
result RemMCP and RelMCP achieve target coverage with smaller or comparable prediction set sizes, reducing variance.
Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models by letting them either output a prediction set or abstain when the uncertainty is…
Improves GNN prediction sets with conformal prediction for node classification.
problem Lack of predictive uncertainty for GNN models.
method Adapted conformal prediction for graph data, weighting scores based on graph structure.
result Better calibrated and tighter prediction sets than naive conformal prediction.
Study robustness of split conformal prediction in data contamination setting.
problem Robustness of split conformal prediction under data contamination.
method Analyze split conformal prediction's performance in a contaminated data setting and propose a new method.
result Demonstrated the impact of corrupted data on prediction intervals' coverage and efficiency.
DPSM minimizes prediction set size by integrating conformal principles into deep classifier training.
problem Large prediction sets from standard conformal methods are impractical.
method Formulates conformal training as bilevel optimization, proposing DPSM algorithm.
result Significantly reduces prediction set size compared to prior methods.
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
New decision support systems use prediction sets to help experts update their predictions, improving performance.
problem Challenges in explaining and updating predictions from decision support systems.
method Developed a methodology leveraging nested structure of prediction sets and counterfactual monotonicity to improve performance.
result Limiting experts' agency leads to better performance in decision support systems based on prediction sets.
Backward Conformal Prediction offers flexible control over prediction set sizes while ensuring coverage guarantees.
problem Providing reliable prediction sets with controlled sizes in applications like medical diagnosis.
method Defines a rule that constrains prediction set sizes based on observed data, adapting coverage levels.
result Maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.
The paper offers a method to create prediction sets with uncertainty control.
problem Calibrating and communicating uncertainty in machine learning predictions.
method Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets using a holdout set to calibrate set sizes.
result Explicit finite-sample guarantees for error control in various machine learning tasks.
Proposes a new method to minimize non-singleton predictions in conformal prediction.
problem Large prediction sets in conformal prediction are costly and inefficient.
method Introduces a new nonconformity score to minimize non-singleton sets and provides an algorithm to compute it efficiently.
result The proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method increases singleton frequency by over 20% compared to standard scores, with minimal impact on average set size.
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
problem Adapting to unknown covariate shift in prediction sets.
method PredSet-1Step, a flexible distribution-free method.
result Achieves asymptotic probably approximately correct coverage.
Paper improves prediction sets for distribution shifts without labels.
problem Improving prediction sets effectiveness in the presence of distribution shifts.
method Develops ECP and EACP methods to adjust score function based on model uncertainty.
result Consistent improvement over existing baselines and nearly matches fully supervised methods.
New method optimizes prediction set volume in conformal prediction.
problem Achieving volume optimality in conformal prediction without sacrificing coverage guarantees.
method Dynamic programming algorithm for finding near-optimal volume unions of k-intervals.
result Efficient algorithm finds unions of k-intervals with near-optimal volume for any distribution.
Paper introduces PCP for efficient, reliable predictive inference.
problem Developing reliable predictive inference methods for target variables.
method Probabilistic conformal prediction using conditional random samples.
result PCP provides sharper predictive sets compared to existing methods.
A new approach reduces the size of prediction sets in CP, making it more efficient.
problem Large and costly prediction sets in standard CP.
method Expand correctness criterion to include inferred admissible answers, and use prediction cascades to prune implausible labels.
result Empirically effective in natural language processing and drug discovery.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
ICP improves text infilling and POS tagging with valid confidence sets.
problem Statistical reliability of machine learning predictions.
method Inductive conformal prediction algorithms for text infilling and POS tagging.
result Valid set-valued predictions with small size for real-world applications.
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
problem Designing methods for learning credal set predictors in machine learning.
method Incorporates conformal prediction for predicting credal sets in classification tasks.
result Conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability.
The paper develops methods to create reliable prediction sets for complex mixture models in high-dimensional data.
problem Building accurate prediction sets for high-dimensional mixture models with feature-dependent weights.
method The authors introduce a debiasing procedure and a novel interval combination strategy to construct valid prediction sets.
result The proposed method provides reliable coverage guarantees for prediction sets in high-dimensional mixture models.
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
problem Helping experts make accurate decisions in multiclass classification tasks.
method Develops an automated decision support system using conformal prediction to provide precise prediction sets and an efficient search method.
result System improves expert predictions by providing precise prediction sets and forcing experts to predict from these sets.
Proposes a method to improve class-conditional conformal prediction for many classes.
problem Weak guarantees for specific classes in classification problems.
method Clusters classes with similar conformal scores and performs conformal prediction at the cluster level.
result Clustered conformal typically outperforms existing methods in class-conditional coverage and set size metrics.
Proposes online conformal prediction method with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
problem Online uncertainty quantification with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
method Formulates online conformal prediction as an adversarial bandit problem and uses regret minimization.
result Achieves long-run coverage guarantee with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…