Study uses machine learning to predict predator-prey dynamics without prior knowledge.
problem Predicting predator-prey interactions without prior knowledge of the system.
method Applied Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) to the Lotka-Volterra model.
result UDEs outperform Neural ODEs in predicting predator-prey dynamics, especially in noisy data.
We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors' beliefs, perspectives or strategies. The dynamics is inspired by a model for describing predator-pre…
Physics analogies explain machine learning overfitting control.
problem Understanding and controlling overfitting in machine learning.
method Analogies from physics and biology applied to algorithmic stability and GAN models.
result Physics formulas provide insights into reducing overfitting in machine learning.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
New methods improve multi-agent reinforcement learning by addressing rotational dynamics.
problem Reproducibility crisis in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
method Reframing MARL approaches using Variational Inequalities (VIs) and proposing gradient-based VI methods.
result Significant performance improvements across benchmarks, including better convergence to equilibrium strategies in zero-sum games.
This paper deals with the stability properties of a closed market, where capital and labour force are acting like a predator-prey system in population-dynamics. The spatial movement of the capital and labour force are taken into account by cross-diffusion effect. First, we are showing two possible ways for modeling thi…
GP-NODE combines Gaussian processes and NeuralODEs for Bayesian system identification.
problem Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations.
method Differentiable programming, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Gaussian Process priors, sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
Framework for joint inference of network topology and interaction types in heterogeneous systems.
problem Joint inference of network topology, multi-type interaction kernels, and latent type assignments in heterogeneous interacting particle systems.
method Three-stage approach: shared structure recovery, discrete interaction type identification, and matrix factorization.
result The method yields accurate reconstruction of underlying dynamics and is robust to noise.
Gaussian process framework learns interaction kernels in multi-species particle systems.
problem Learning interaction kernels in multi-species interacting particle systems from trajectory data.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach with Gaussian processes.
result Established rigorous statistical guarantees for recoverability and optimality of interaction kernels.
SIP framework discovers governing equations in uncertain systems.
problem Discovering governing equations in systems with input variability and noisy data.
method SIP framework treats unknown coefficients as random variables and infers their posterior distribution by minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result SIP consistently identifies correct equations and lowers coefficient error by 82% relative to SINDy.
Framework improves self-play for cooperative multi-agent learning.
problem Evolutionary learning converges to bad local optima in multi-agent RL.
method Add imaginary rewards using peer prediction method to elicit truthful signals.
result State-of-the-art performance in predator prey, traffic junction and StarCraft tasks.
Differential equations can be used to construct predictive models of a diverse set of real-world phenomena like heat transfer, predator-prey interactions, and missile tracking. In our work, we explore one particular application of stochastic differential equations, the Black-Scholes-Merton model, which can be used to p…
Actors in realistic social networks play not one but a number of diverse roles depending on whom they interact with, and a large number of such role-specific interactions collectively determine social communities and their organizations. Methods for analyzing social networks should capture these multi-faceted role-spec…
We propose two spectral algorithms for partitioning nodes in directed graphs respectively with a cyclic and an acyclic pattern of connection between groups of nodes. Our methods are based on the computation of extremal eigenvalues of the transition matrix associated to the directed graph. The two algorithms outperform …
Implicit probabilistic models are a flexible class of models defined by a simulation process for data. They form the basis for theories which encompass our understanding of the physical world. Despite this fundamental nature, the use of implicit models remains limited due to challenges in specifying complex latent stru…
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and …
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
We explore value-based solutions for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) tasks in the centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) regime popularized recently. However, VDN and QMIX are representative examples that use the idea of factorization of the joint action-value function into individual ones f…
Bayesian symbolic regression uncovers missing physics from data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Incomplete knowledge of physical laws from experimental data.
method Bayesian symbolic regression using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Uncertainty quantification in recovered model structures.
Data-driven discovery of differential equations has been an emerging research topic. We propose a novel algorithm subsampling-based threshold sparse Bayesian regression (SubTSBR) to tackle high noise and outliers. The subsampling technique is used for improving the accuracy of the Bayesian learning algorithm. It has tw…
Improved Q-learning for multi-agent reinforcement learning by weighting joint action values.
problem QMIX restricts Q-values to monotonic mixtures, limiting complex value functions. method Introduced weighted projection to recover optimal policies, improving performance.
result CW QMIX and OW QMIX outperform baseline QMIX on multi-agent tasks.
Study on 2-valued dynamics on complex plane, showing some dynamics can't be group actions.
problem Whether 2-valued dynamics can be defined by the action of a 2-valued group.
method Construction of examples of dynamics that are or are not group actions.
result Some 2-valued dynamics on complex plane cannot be defined by the action of a 2-valued group.
The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.
problem Representing dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
method Representation theorems for dynamic monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
result Dynamic star-shaped risk measures can be represented as the lower envelope of a family of dynamic convex risk measures.
Study circles to understand dynamics and rigidity in homogeneous spaces.
problem Understanding dynamics and rigidity in infinite-volume homogeneous spaces.
method Addressing four questions about circle packings.
result Highlighting the interplay between dynamics, geometry, and rigidity.
A Riemmanian foliated dynamical system of 3-dimension (RFDS3) is a closed Riemannian 3-manifold with additional structures: foliation, dynamical system. In the context of arithmetic topology, it is a geometric/analytic analogue of an arithmetic scheme with a conjectural dynamical system suggested by C. De…
Paper connects dynamics of mechanical systems to Reeb dynamics.
problem Understanding dynamics in mechanical systems with Poisson structures.
method Using Jacobi bundle metrics and linear Poisson structures.
result Extends classical results on Reeb dynamics to mechanical systems.
Two heuristics solve dynamic multiple travelling salesmen problems.
problem Dynamic routing with unknown customers.
method Balanced dynamic closest vehicle heuristic and balanced dynamic assignment vehicle heuristic.
result Continuous approximation models for strategic dynamic routing.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
DOODL learns shared spectral dynamics across related dynamical systems.
problem Learning independent dynamical operators for each system limits discovery of shared structure.
method DOODL learns a dictionary of characteristic spectral dynamics on a manifold of related systems.
result DOODL achieves errors one to two orders of magnitude lower than independent operator estimation methods.
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
Most real world phenomena such as sunlight distribution under a forest canopy, minerals concentration, stock valuation, exhibit nonstationary dynamics i.e. phenomenon variation changes depending on the locality. Nonstationary dynamics pose both theoretical and practical challenges to statistical machine learning algori…
Unified analysis of DLNs using DMFT reveals dynamics of loss convergence and generalization trade-offs.
problem Understanding the overall dynamics of diagonal linear networks (DLNs) in neural network training.
method Dynamical Mean-Field Theory (DMFT) applied to DLNs.
result Derives low-dimensional effective process capturing high-dimensional gradient flow dynamics.
dLDS models neural dynamics as sparse combinations of simpler components.
problem Understanding complex neural dynamics at a population level.
method Proposes a decomposed dynamical system model trained through dictionary learning.
result Model efficiently captures and demix diverse neural dynamics.
Reinforcement learning would enjoy better success on real-world problems if domain knowledge could be imparted to the algorithm by the modelers. Most problems have both hidden state and unknown dynamics. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) allow for the modeling of both. Unfortunately, they do not p…
We consider trivializations of second iterated bundles of a Lie group that preserve lifted group structures. With such a trivialization, we elaborate Hamiltonian dynamics on cotangent, Lagrangian dynamics on tangent bundles and, both Hamiltonian and Lagrangian dynamics on Tulczyjew's symplectic space which is tangent o…
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
This survey clarifies dynamic network terminology and reviews GNN models for dynamic networks.
problem Ambiguity in dynamic network terminology and lack of GNN models for dynamic networks.
method Established consistent terminology and notation for dynamic networks, reviewed GNN models.
result Comprehensive survey of dynamic graph neural network models.
Framework infers Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent systems.
problem Inferring non-stationary Langevin dynamics from indirect stochastic observations.
method Non-parametric framework explicitly modeling stochastic observation process and non-stationary latent dynamics.
result Correct inference of non-stationary dynamics requires accounting for non-equilibrium states and observation duration.
The paper introduces a dynamic MVP model using high-frequency financial data.
problem Capturing the dynamics of minimum variance portfolio weights in financial markets.
method Imposes autoregressive structure on MVP processes and uses CLIME and LASSO for estimation.
result Proposes DR-MVP model with established asymptotic properties.
The paper extends Vlasov kinetic theory to time-dependent dynamics using cosymplectic and cocontact manifolds.
problem Extending Vlasov kinetic theory to time-dependent dynamics.
method Introducing geometric kinetic theories within cosymplectic and cocontact manifolds.
result Alternative realizations of cosymplectic and cocontact kinetic theories linked via Poisson/momentum maps.
NDS learns dynamical models with prior knowledge, improving accuracy and efficiency.
problem Learning accurate dynamical models with limited data and varying dynamics.
method Neural Dynamical Systems (NDS) integrates prior knowledge in ODEs with neural networks to estimate parameters and predict states.
result NDS achieves higher accuracy and uses fewer samples compared to other methods.
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots, outperforming existing models.
problem Capturing periodic and other dynamical properties of population dynamics.
method Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics (WLM) for learning second-order dynamics from observed marginals.
result WLM outperforms existing methods across various dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.
Paper uses Chebyshev Tensors for accurate dynamic sensitivities and ISDA SIMM computation.
problem Computing dynamic sensitivities and initial margin for financial instruments.
method Uses Chebyshev Tensors in Monte Carlo simulations to compute dynamic sensitivities and ISDA SIMM.
result High accuracy and computational gains for FX swaps and Spread Options.
Model dynamic customer sensitivities across categories.
problem Dynamic heterogeneity in customer sensitivities to marketing elements.
method Hierarchical dynamic factor model with Bayesian nonparametric Gaussian processes.
result Dynamic heterogeneity can be explained by a few global trends.
Survey on computational models in dynamical systems, including new universality concepts.
problem Understanding the relationship between computational models and dynamical systems.
method Review of recent works on Turing universality, Topological Kleene Field Theories, and dynamical bordisms.
result Introduction of new perspectives on computability through dynamical systems.
FNSDA adapts to new dynamics via Fourier space adaptation.
problem Generalizing to unseen dynamical systems with limited data.
method Automatic partitioning of known environments in Fourier modes and adaptation of specific modes for new environments.
result FNSDA achieves superior or competitive generalization performance with reduced parameter cost.