A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Spatial machine learning improves poverty targeting in Indonesia.
Mapping the spatial distribution of poverty in developing countries remains an important and costly challenge. These "poverty maps" are key inputs for poverty targeting, public goods provision, political accountability, and impact evaluation, that are all the more important given the geographic dispersion of the remain…
Study optimizes CT and microinsurance for efficient social protection in low-income countries.
Modeling poverty transitions in India over 54 years, showing rising but persistent poverty.
With a new deprivation (or poverty) function, in this paper, we theoretically study the changes in poverty with respect to the `global' mean and variance of the income distribution using Indian survey data. We show that when the income obeys a log-normal distribution, a rising mean income generally indicates a reductio…
Wariness affects poverty traps and equilibrium diversity in economic models.
We provide investment advice for an individual who wishes to minimize her lifetime poverty, with a penalty for bankruptcy or ruin. We measure poverty via a non-negative, non-increasing function of (running) wealth. Thus, the lower wealth falls and the longer wealth stays low, the greater the penalty. This paper general…
We consider a multi-armed bandit problem with covariates. Given a realization of the covariate vector, instead of targeting the treatment with highest conditional expectation, the decision maker targets the treatment which maximizes a general functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution, e.g., a conditi…
Subsidized insurance reduces poverty by providing social benefits and lowering government costs.
Fuel poverty affects between 50 and 125 million households in Europe and is a significant issue for both developed and developing countries globally. This means that fuel poor residents are unable to adequately warm their home and run the necessary energy services needed for lighting, cooking, hot water, and electrical…
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
In a recent work (Chattopadhyay, A. K. et al, Europhys. Lett. {\bf 91}, 58003, 2010) based on food consumption statistics, we showed how a stochastic agent based model could represent the time variation of the income distribution statistics in a developing economy, thereby defining an alternative \enquote{poverty index…
Model shows how capital accumulation can lead to poverty traps and well-being states.
With the rapid expansion of mobile phone networks in developing countries, large-scale graph machine learning has gained sudden relevance in the study of global poverty. Recent applications range from humanitarian response and poverty estimation to urban planning and epidemic containment. Yet the vast majority of compu…
Scoping review of EO-ML methods for causal inference in poverty geography.
Study examines how insurance affects households prone to proportional losses, especially those near poverty.
We analyze a conservative market model for the competition among economic agents in a close society. A minimum dynamics ensures that the poorest agent has a chance to improve its economic welfare. After a transient, the system self-organizes into a critical state where the wealth distribution have a minimum threshold, …
We present a stochastic agent-based model for the distribution of personal incomes in a developing economy. We start with the assumption that incomes are determined both by individual labour and by stochastic effects of trading and investment. The income from personal effort alone is distributed about a mean, while the…
A new CA-GAN architecture improves minority class data generation in health datasets.
Discriminatory trade liberalization policies are becoming more popular among world economies. Countries are motivated to enter for regional trade agreements to capture faster economic growth for alleviating poverty. In developing economies like most of the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations…
Satellite imagery helps adjust for unobserved confounders in observational studies.
The paper addresses treatment recommendation problems by optimizing distributional characteristics.
Paper analyzes factors affecting COVID-19 risk in US counties.
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft, government failures---that systematically thwart the product…
New proof shows local wealth condensation in economic models with biases.
We describe a method to identify poor households in data-scarce countries by leveraging information contained in nationally representative household surveys. It employs standard statistical learning techniques---cross-validation and parameter regularization---which together reduce the extent to which the model is over-…
The world GDP distribution is described using thermodynamics principles.
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of conservative wealth exchanges among economic agents. A few years ago an exchange model using extremal dynamics was developed and a very interesting result was obtained: a self-generated minimum wealth or poverty line. On the other hand, the wealth distribution exhi…
Paper introduces multi-scale methods to improve CATE estimation from EO data.
Classic economic science is reaching the limits of its explanatory powers. Complexity science uses an increasingly larger set of different methods to analyze physical, biological, cultural, social, and economic factors, providing a broader understanding of the socio-economic dynamics involved in the development of nati…
A control-theoretic model tackles microfinance sustainability issues.
This paper combines ideas from classical economics and modern finance with the general Lotka-Volterra models of Levy & Solomon to provide straightforward explanations of wealth and income distributions. Using a simple and realistic economic formulation, the distributions of both wealth and income are fully explained. B…
Reduces variance in noisy social outcomes to improve policy evaluation and optimization.
Obtaining detailed and reliable data about local economic livelihoods in developing countries is expensive, and data are consequently scarce. Previous work has shown that it is possible to measure local-level economic livelihoods using high-resolution satellite imagery. However, such imagery is relatively expensive to …
Study maps interdependence of SDGs, finds complex, dynamic linkages.
In this paper, a frequency coefficient based on the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon (SST) poverty index notion is proposed. The clustering SST index can be used as the method for determination of the connection between similar neighbor sub-clusters. Consequently, connections can reveal existence of natural homogeneous. Through esti…
When considering answering important questions with data, unsupervised data offers extensive insight opportunity and unique challenges. This study considers student survey data with a specific goal of clustering students into like groups with underlying concept of identifying different poverty levels. Fuzzy logic is co…
We study heterogeneity in the effect of a mindset intervention on student-level performance through an observational dataset from the National Study of Learning Mindsets (NSLM). Our analysis uses machine learning (ML) to address the following associated problems: assessing treatment group overlap and covariate balance,…
We develop a new statistical test for comparing variables with varying scales.
Data mining revealed a cluster of economic, psychological, social and cultural indicators that in combination predicted corruption and wealth of European nations. This prosperity syndrome of self-reliant citizens, efficient division of labor, a sophisticated scientific community, and respect for the law, was clearly di…
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of participants is employed, generating stochastic economic output. To ensure fairne…
The prominent inequality of wealth and income is a huge concern especially in the United States. The likelihood of diminishing poverty is one valid reason to reduce the world's surging level of economic inequality. The principle of universal moral equality ensures sustainable development and improve the economic stabil…
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme p…
Model trains agents to optimize saving and investment strategies for diverse retirement needs.
Study finds risk management significantly improves pension scheme efficiency in Kenya.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved considerably in the last few years. While applications of AI is now becoming more common in fields like retail and marketing, application of AI in solving problems related to developing countries is still an emerging topic. Specially, AI applications in resource-poor settings re…
Study examines financial performance determinants of Kenyan microfinance banks.
Optimizes lockdown strategies to balance economic activities and virus spread.